FRANKFURT – A monthly poll of financial market experts showed unexpected optimism about the future of Europe’s largest economy as hopes for looser monetary policy prevailed over local and global concerns.
Germany’s ZEW economic thinktank said Tuesday that its January expectations measure for the coming half year rose for a sixth consecutive month with an increase to 15.2 points, which beat the market forecast of 11.7 and last month’s result of 12.8.
After two straight increases, the current conditions reading eased to -77.3 points, according to the institute: This month’s number was below the estimate of -77.0 and the December result of -77.1.
The expectations measure for the Eurozone declined to 22.7 points from 23.0 in December, the ZEW said.
A focus on rate-setters
Economic expectations for Germany improved again because now more than half of respondents anticipate European Central Bank interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, ZEW President Achim Wambach said. “There are even more pronounced shifts in US interest rate expectations. More than two-thirds of the respondents predict interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in the next six months.”
The survey results show that concerns of consumer price growth have all but disappeared despite increases in Germany and the Eurozone last month, Wambach noted, saying the upswings are having “no impact on the monetary policy expectations of the respondents.”
The ZEW narrative counters last week’s results from German pollster Sentix, which titled its January report on investor confidence: “Germany still in crisis.”
Sentiment fell down the line, Sentix said, adding acerbic commentary on the situation: “Germany is not emerging from the recession and thus from its economic crisis. How could it? If taxes and levies are increased during a crisis and entire sections of the population are turned against the government's actions, as shown by the large-scale protests announced by farmers and others, then we should not complain if investors assume that the economic problems will continue.”
And about this time last month, Germany’s Ifo Institute said the results of December’s survey of companies showed a drop in its headline business climate index , an unexpected decrease as economists had forecast a fourth straight improvement.
Investors understandably remained concerned about the present, with striking rail workers and protesting farmers at home and wars and attacks on Red Sea shipping abroad. Additionally, the DAX 40 index of German blue chips was off nearly 1.2% in the past week in morning trading in Frankfurt, and it was down nearly 0.9% on the month. Conversely, shares were up almost 2.8% over the past six months and more than 9% from this time last year.
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session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
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session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
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function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
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data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
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var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
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session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
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session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
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data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
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- Current conditions measure slips
- Increased optimism comes after declines in other polls
- Inflation worries vanish
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
16 January 2024 | 10:30 GMT
FRANKFURT – A monthly poll of financial market experts showed unexpected optimism about the future of Europe’s largest economy as hopes for looser monetary policy prevailed over local and global concerns.
Germany’s ZEW economic thinktank said Tuesday that its January expectations measure for the coming half year rose for a sixth consecutive month with an increase to 15.2 points, which beat the market forecast of 11.7 and last month’s result of 12.8.
After two straight increases, the current conditions reading eased to -77.3 points, according to the institute: This month’s number was below the estimate of -77.0 and the December result of -77.1.
The expectations measure for the Eurozone declined to 22.7 points from 23.0 in December, the ZEW said.
A focus on rate-setters
Economic expectations for Germany improved again because now more than half of respondents anticipate European Central Bank interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, ZEW President Achim Wambach said. “There are even more pronounced shifts in US interest rate expectations. More than two-thirds of the respondents predict interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in the next six months.”
The survey results show that concerns of consumer price growth have all but disappeared despite increases in Germany and the Eurozone last month, Wambach noted, saying the upswings are having “no impact on the monetary policy expectations of the respondents.”
The ZEW narrative counters last week’s results from German pollster Sentix, which titled its January report on investor confidence: “Germany still in crisis.”
Sentiment fell down the line, Sentix said, adding acerbic commentary on the situation: “Germany is not emerging from the recession and thus from its economic crisis. How could it? If taxes and levies are increased during a crisis and entire sections of the population are turned against the government's actions, as shown by the large-scale protests announced by farmers and others, then we should not complain if investors assume that the economic problems will continue.”
And about this time last month, Germany’s Ifo Institute said the results of December’s survey of companies showed a drop in its headline business climate index , an unexpected decrease as economists had forecast a fourth straight improvement.
Investors understandably remained concerned about the present, with striking rail workers and protesting farmers at home and wars and attacks on Red Sea shipping abroad. Additionally, the DAX 40 index of German blue chips was off nearly 1.2% in the past week in morning trading in Frankfurt, and it was down nearly 0.9% on the month. Conversely, shares were up almost 2.8% over the past six months and more than 9% from this time last year.