FRANKFURT – Better prospects for international trade has sparked a surge in investor confidence in Europe’s largest economy.
Germany’s ZEW thinktank said Tuesday that its January expectations indicator for the coming half-year jumped to 59.6 points, the best showing since July 2021. The latest measure beat the forecast of 50.0 and the 45.8 mark set in December.
The ZEW said its current conditions indicator for Germany improved to -72.7 points versus -81.0 last month and the -76.0 estimate.
The thinktank’s measure for the Eurozone’s outlook climbed to 40.8 points from 33.7, with the current situation showing a strong increase.
The renewed optimism suggested that the German economy had passed its nadir. “Twenty twenty-six could mark a turning point,” ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said “However, despite the positive economic sentiment, work should continue to strengthen the attractiveness of the location in order to enable sustainable growth.”
After two years of contraction, German GDP expanded 0.2% in 2025, according to a preliminary report.
Further growth is expected to come from Berlin’s plans to invest EUR 1 tn or more in its military and domestic infrastructure, and the recently signed trade deal between the EU and Mercosur countries Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, which followed a quarter-century of talks.
“The Mercosur agreement is likely to have improved the outlook for export -intensive industries,” the ZEW noted. “However, the unpredictable US trade policy continues to be an additional burden on the German export economy.”
US threats mute hopes
Over the weekend, US President Trump threatened a 10% tariff on goods from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and the UK staring on 1 February, with that fee rising to 25% on 1 June. These countries recently deployed troops to Greenland in what they called a reconnaissance mission to investigate concerns voiced by the US about possible Chinese or Russian activity on and around the world’s biggest island.
The ZEW poll ran from 12-19 January. Considering past iterations of the survey, most respondents had likely submitted their answers before the Trump announcement.
Export-oriented industries showed increased optimism, the ZEW said, citing sectors for steel and metal, electrical and mechanical engineering, automotive, and chemicals and pharmaceuticals. “These results are in line with the figures for industrial production in November 2025, which turned out significantly better than expected and a surprisingly strong increase in orders,” the thinktank explained.
But the German statistics office Destatis said Tuesday that exports to the US in January-November 2025 fell 9.4% versus the year-earlier period, a result of Washington’s trade policies.
German pollster Sentix said last week that its overall index of domestic investor sentiment improved to -16.4 points – the best since August – from -22.7 in December: “Investors are banking on Germany benefiting from the tailwind of a global recovery,” it noted.
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var assigned_server = 3001;
var distributor_server = 3010;
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case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break;
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case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break;
case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break;
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data_array.logs = data.logs;
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function check_channel_status(data) {
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else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); }
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function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
}
function join_publisher_channel(data) {
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data_array.type = 'join_publisher_channel';
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data_array.subscriber_group = data.subscriber_group;
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data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
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var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) {
socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
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function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
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function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel;
remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
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var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
switch(data.type) {
case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break;
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};
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function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
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function server_assignment_response(data) {
assigned_server = data.selected_server;
socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
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function request_server_assignment() {
var data_array = {};
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socket.onopen = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' });
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postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
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switch(data.type) {
case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break;
case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
case 'add_report':
case 'add_ref_doc':
case 'calendar_change':
case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
case 'AppStart':
case 'AppStop':
case 'BroadcasterStarted':
case 'BroadcasterStopped':
case 'added_cme_report':
case 'updated_cme_report':
case 'added_cme_commentary':
case 'updated_cme_commentary':
case 'server_assignment_response':
case 'initial_messages':
case 'message_categories':
case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
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case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
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socket.onerror = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
console.log(event);
postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
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console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason);
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reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor;
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socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
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function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
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function join_player_channel(data) {
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data_array.username = data.username;
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postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
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function start_log_response(data) {
session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id;
session_info_interval();
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function application_refresh_start(data) {
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function application_refresh_stop(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); }
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function set_static_session_info(data) {
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session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
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function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
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data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
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data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
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data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- Outlook hits highest level since mid ‘21
- January could “mark a turning point” – ZEW chief
- Unpredictable US trade policy “a burden”
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
20 January 2025 | 10:55 GMT
FRANKFURT – Better prospects for international trade has sparked a surge in investor confidence in Europe’s largest economy.
Germany’s ZEW thinktank said Tuesday that its January expectations indicator for the coming half-year jumped to 59.6 points, the best showing since July 2021. The latest measure beat the forecast of 50.0 and the 45.8 mark set in December.
The ZEW said its current conditions indicator for Germany improved to -72.7 points versus -81.0 last month and the -76.0 estimate.
The thinktank’s measure for the Eurozone’s outlook climbed to 40.8 points from 33.7, with the current situation showing a strong increase.
The renewed optimism suggested that the German economy had passed its nadir. “Twenty twenty-six could mark a turning point,” ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said “However, despite the positive economic sentiment, work should continue to strengthen the attractiveness of the location in order to enable sustainable growth.”
After two years of contraction, German GDP expanded 0.2% in 2025, according to a preliminary report.
Further growth is expected to come from Berlin’s plans to invest EUR 1 tn or more in its military and domestic infrastructure, and the recently signed trade deal between the EU and Mercosur countries Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, which followed a quarter-century of talks.
“The Mercosur agreement is likely to have improved the outlook for export -intensive industries,” the ZEW noted. “However, the unpredictable US trade policy continues to be an additional burden on the German export economy.”
US threats mute hopes
Over the weekend, US President Trump threatened a 10% tariff on goods from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and the UK staring on 1 February, with that fee rising to 25% on 1 June. These countries recently deployed troops to Greenland in what they called a reconnaissance mission to investigate concerns voiced by the US about possible Chinese or Russian activity on and around the world’s biggest island.
The ZEW poll ran from 12-19 January. Considering past iterations of the survey, most respondents had likely submitted their answers before the Trump announcement.
Export-oriented industries showed increased optimism, the ZEW said, citing sectors for steel and metal, electrical and mechanical engineering, automotive, and chemicals and pharmaceuticals. “These results are in line with the figures for industrial production in November 2025, which turned out significantly better than expected and a surprisingly strong increase in orders,” the thinktank explained.
But the German statistics office Destatis said Tuesday that exports to the US in January-November 2025 fell 9.4% versus the year-earlier period, a result of Washington’s trade policies.
German pollster Sentix said last week that its overall index of domestic investor sentiment improved to -16.4 points – the best since August – from -22.7 in December: “Investors are banking on Germany benefiting from the tailwind of a global recovery,” it noted.
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