FRANKFURT – A leading measure of investor confidence in Germany is expected to show growth for a second straight month even as the EU-US trade war heats up again.
An analysts’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from a survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will improve to 50.0 points from last month’s 45.8.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is expected to stay in negative territory – its home since December 2021 – by improving to -75.5 from -81.0 in December.
Roiling the waters, again
The performance of German blue chips in recent weeks and beyond offered a generally upbeat indicator of the mood among investors: on Monday, the country’s leading equity index was up more than 19% from this time last year and 3% higher from a month ago.
Conversely, in the European morning session, the index was 1% lower versus Friday’s close after US President Donald Trump over the weekend threatened eight Nato member countries with tariffs unless his Washington is allowed to take control of Greenland. This news should have little to no effect on this month’s ZEW numbers as it came near the end of the polling period for the January report.
Trump has threatened a 10% tariff on goods from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and the UK staring on February 1, with that fee rising to 25% on June 1. The countries recently deployed troops to Greenland in what they called a reconnaissance mission.
Major German carmakers BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen were down 3.5-4% on Monday morning. Shares in German defence company Rhinemetall rose more than 3%.
German pollster Sentix said its overall index of domestic investor sentiment improved to -16.4 points – the best since August – from -22.7 in December: “Investors are banking on Germany benefiting from the tailwind of a global recovery.”
But with German hopes pinned to a worldwide rebound, Trump’s renewed attacks on Europe are muting optimism as EU leaders consider significant sanctions on US companies.
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- Forward-looking measure seen at 50.0 points (prev 45.8)
- Current conditions projected at -75.5 (prev -81.0)
- German car shares slump
- Stock in German weapons maker jumps
- Data due Tuesday at 10:00 GMT / 11:00 CET
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
An analysts’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from a survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will improve to 50.0 points from last month’s 45.8.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is expected to stay in negative territory – its home since December 2021 – by improving to -75.5 from -81.0 in December.
Roiling the waters, again
The performance of German blue chips in recent weeks and beyond offered a generally upbeat indicator of the mood among investors: on Monday, the country’s leading equity index was up more than 19% from this time last year and 3% higher from a month ago.
Conversely, in the European morning session, the index was 1% lower versus Friday’s close after US President Donald Trump over the weekend threatened eight Nato member countries with tariffs unless his Washington is allowed to take control of Greenland. This news should have little to no effect on this month’s ZEW numbers as it came near the end of the polling period for the January report.
Trump has threatened a 10% tariff on goods from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and the UK staring on February 1, with that fee rising to 25% on June 1. The countries recently deployed troops to Greenland in what they called a reconnaissance mission.
Major German carmakers BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen were down 3.5-4% on Monday morning. Shares in German defence company Rhinemetall rose more than 3%.
German pollster Sentix said its overall index of domestic investor sentiment improved to -16.4 points – the best since August – from -22.7 in December: “Investors are banking on Germany benefiting from the tailwind of a global recovery.”
But with German hopes pinned to a worldwide rebound, Trump’s renewed attacks on Europe are muting optimism as EU leaders consider significant sanctions on US companies.
Sign up for LiveSquawk and receive a discount with the code LSQEC$