FRANKFURT – A leading measure of German investor confidence is expected to continue to regain ground after one of its worst declines in April as Berlin sets its sights on hundreds of billions in spending.
An analysts’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from the latest survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will rise to 35.0 points versus 25.2 in May. The threat of US tariffs collapsed the rating for the next six months to -14.0 in April on the largest decrease since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is expected to remain stuck in negative territory – where it has been since December 2021 – with an increase to -74 points from -82.
“German ZEW investor sentiment in June should consolidate the May gain but not spring much higher,” Citi said in a note. “Given the uncertainty on tariffs and their impact on growth, we think investor sentiment surveys are not capturing correctly underlying momentum, with the PMIs and business surveys probably better gauges at the moment.”
Signs point to improvement
Last month, the German Ifo thinktank said business confidence rose on higher expectations among the country’s managers. Ifo noted that the economy was “slowly regaining its footing,” an opinion borne out by the latest growth forecasts from Germany’s major economic institutes. Ifo last week announced that it had raised its GDP growth expectations for Europe’s largest economy to 0.3% this year – up a tenth – and 1.5% in 2026, an increase of seven-tenths. Three other thinktanks have also hiked their expectations. In addition, the OECD had previously forecast a 0.4% upturn in 2025 and a 1.2% improvement next year.
For this month’s investor confidence report, analysts said the measures will track last week’s Sentix survey results higher. The German pollster’s headline reading for this month hit its highest mark since March 2022.
“Germany is benefiting from the fact that the EU has not signalled any imminent escalation in the customs dispute (with the US),” Sentix wrote. “The new German government is making its first moves, particularly in foreign and migration policy, which are being well received by investors.”
Berlin is planning to spend up to EUR 500 bn on infrastructure over the next 12 years and hundreds of billions more on defence.
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- Outlook forecast at 35.0 points (prev 25.2)
- Current conditions projected at -74.0 (prev -82.0)
- Trade war’s outcome looms over Germany
- Data due Tuesday at 09:00 GMT / 11:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
16 June 2025 | 09:20 GMT
FRANKFURT – A leading measure of German investor confidence is expected to continue to regain ground after one of its worst declines in April as Berlin sets its sights on hundreds of billions in spending.
An analysts’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from the latest survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will rise to 35.0 points versus 25.2 in May. The threat of US tariffs collapsed the rating for the next six months to -14.0 in April on the largest decrease since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is expected to remain stuck in negative territory – where it has been since December 2021 – with an increase to -74 points from -82.
“German ZEW investor sentiment in June should consolidate the May gain but not spring much higher,” Citi said in a note. “Given the uncertainty on tariffs and their impact on growth, we think investor sentiment surveys are not capturing correctly underlying momentum, with the PMIs and business surveys probably better gauges at the moment.”
Signs point to improvement
Last month, the German Ifo thinktank said business confidence rose on higher expectations among the country’s managers. Ifo noted that the economy was “slowly regaining its footing,” an opinion borne out by the latest growth forecasts from Germany’s major economic institutes. Ifo last week announced that it had raised its GDP growth expectations for Europe’s largest economy to 0.3% this year – up a tenth – and 1.5% in 2026, an increase of seven-tenths. Three other thinktanks have also hiked their expectations. In addition, the OECD had previously forecast a 0.4% upturn in 2025 and a 1.2% improvement next year.
For this month’s investor confidence report, analysts said the measures will track last week’s Sentix survey results higher. The German pollster’s headline reading for this month hit its highest mark since March 2022.
“Germany is benefiting from the fact that the EU has not signalled any imminent escalation in the customs dispute (with the US),” Sentix wrote. “The new German government is making its first moves, particularly in foreign and migration policy, which are being well received by investors.”
Berlin is planning to spend up to EUR 500 bn on infrastructure over the next 12 years and hundreds of billions more on defence.
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