FRANKFURT – A leading measure of investor confidence in Germany is expected to show growth for a third straight month as the country gears up to become increasingly responsible for its own defence.
An analysts’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from a survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will improve to 65.0 points from last month’s 59.6, which was the best showing since July 2021.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is expected to stay in negative territory – its home since December 2021 – by improving to -65.7 from -72.7 in January.
“The ZEW will very likely show an improvement similar to what the Sentix did,” Oxford Economics wrote, referring to another German monthly poll of investor confidence.
The Frankfurt-based pollster Sentix said last week that its headline index for Germany improved to -6.9 points in February, the best mark since August of last year. “Institutional investors in particular are revising their stance significantly, resulting in a sharp rise in economic expectations,” the report said.
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Friction between the US and Europe continues on the trade front and on security issues. US Vice President J.D. Vance rattled the transatlantic alliance at last year’s Munich Security Conference, and while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a softer tone over the weekend, the message was basically the same: Adopt the policies of the Trump administration or feel the wrath.
The Europeans and Americans seem to agree on one thing: Countries on this side of the Atlantic need to beef up their militaries, and Germany has taken the lead, promising to pump hundreds of billions into its defence. This policy, and recently completed EU trade agreements with India and the Mercosur countries, have also boosted optimism among investors.
The German and Eurozone economies performed better than expected in the final quarter of 2025, which has also added to the upbeat mood.
- Forward-looking measure seen at 65.0 points (prev 59.6)
- Current conditions projected at -65.7 (prev -72.7)
- Military spending drives hopes
- Data due Tuesday at 10:00 GMT / 11:00 CET
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16 February 2026 | 09:40 GMT
FRANKFURT – A leading measure of investor confidence in Germany is expected to show growth for a third straight month as the country gears up to become increasingly responsible for its own defence.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is expected to stay in negative territory – its home since December 2021 – by improving to -65.7 from -72.7 in January.
“The ZEW will very likely show an improvement similar to what the Sentix did,” Oxford Economics wrote, referring to another German monthly poll of investor confidence.
The Frankfurt-based pollster Sentix said last week that its headline index for Germany improved to -6.9 points in February, the best mark since August of last year. “Institutional investors in particular are revising their stance significantly, resulting in a sharp rise in economic expectations,” the report said.
Get with the programme
Friction between the US and Europe continues on the trade front and on security issues. US Vice President J.D. Vance rattled the transatlantic alliance at last year’s Munich Security Conference, and while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a softer tone over the weekend, the message was basically the same: Adopt the policies of the Trump administration or feel the wrath.
The Europeans and Americans seem to agree on one thing: Countries on this side of the Atlantic need to beef up their militaries, and Germany has taken the lead, promising to pump hundreds of billions into its defence. This policy, and recently completed EU trade agreements with India and the Mercosur countries, have also boosted optimism among investors.
The German and Eurozone economies performed better than expected in the final quarter of 2025, which has also added to the upbeat mood.
But German business confidence moved sideways last month amid more US trade threats.
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