Weaker Data To Test BoE Resolve Ahead Of Autumn Budget
- Analysts favour a hold over a surprise quarter point cut - Cooling wage growth, rising unemployment, strengthens case for easing - Updated MPR forecasts to show lower near-term inflation, GDP, and wages - Policymakers likely to stress data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach - Rate announcement due 12:00 GMT/07:00 ET - Press conference scheduled for 12:30 GMT/07:30 ET
LONDON – What had looked like a straightforward decision a few weeks ago now appears far more finely balanced for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
A majority of analysts polled expect policymakers to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00% when the decision is announced at midday on Thursday. However, a growing number of experts now see scope for a rate cut.
Most observers believe the MPC will prefer to wait until after the Autumn Budget at the end of the month before making its next move. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce tax rises when she presents her fiscal roadmap on 26 November.
Despite consensus and market pricing favouring no change, Nomura’s George Buckley is among those anticipating a cut, albeit by a narrow margin. “We believe weaker data over the past month support a rate cut, but there is probably only one voting configuration (5-4) that can deliver it. Swing voters [Andrew] Bailey, [Sarah] Breeden, and [Dave] Ramsden will likely be needed to vote for a cut to get it over the line.”
Worsening Data
Calls for a reduction in borrowing costs are not without merit. Recent figures have shown a clear softening in the growth dynamic, a concern for policymakers.
The UK reported a further cooling in average earnings in the three months to August. Analysts noted that private-sector regular wage growth is on track to undershoot the BoE’s 4.6% Q3 projection by around four-tenths of a percentage point. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly accelerated to 4.8%.
Meanwhile, headline CPI held steady in September at 3.8% y/y, missing the 4.0% consensus and marking a third consecutive month of flat inflation.
Updated Staff Projections
The quarterly economic revisions will be detailed in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report.
In a recent speech, Chief Economist Huw Pill outlined changes to how the MPC communicates its decisions and presents the MPR, incorporating recommendations from the Bernanke Review. In future, the minutes will allow each member space to explain their own view.
Barclays’ Jack Meaning noted that the MPC had seen three key misses in its forecasts—CPI inflation, GDP, and wage growth—all likely to be revised lower in the near term. “However, we expect the medium-term forecast to be little changed, with the two- and three-year-ahead inflation projections remaining at 2.5% and 2.0%, respectively.”
Evolving Guidance
Economists at BofA Global Research said they expect a 6-3 vote to hold rates. “While a cut in November can’t be ruled out, our view is that the BoE would likely want to see more decisive inflation progress, limited second-round effects, further evidence on 2026 wage awards, and the 26 November Budget contours before cutting again.”
They added that the central bank would continue to steer policy gradually and on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
“The BoE is also likely to emphasise that monetary policy is not on a pre-set path; the timing of future cuts is uncertain and will depend on how underlying disinflationary pressures evolve.”
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- Analysts favour a hold over a surprise quarter point cut
- Cooling wage growth, rising unemployment, strengthens case for easing
- Updated MPR forecasts to show lower near-term inflation, GDP, and wages
- Policymakers likely to stress data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach
- Rate announcement due 12:00 GMT/07:00 ET
- Press conference scheduled for 12:30 GMT/07:30 ET
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
5 November 2025 | 12:00 GMT
LONDON – What had looked like a straightforward decision a few weeks ago now appears far more finely balanced for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
A majority of analysts polled expect policymakers to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00% when the decision is announced at midday on Thursday. However, a growing number of experts now see scope for a rate cut.
Most observers believe the MPC will prefer to wait until after the Autumn Budget at the end of the month before making its next move. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce tax rises when she presents her fiscal roadmap on 26 November.
Despite consensus and market pricing favouring no change, Nomura’s George Buckley is among those anticipating a cut, albeit by a narrow margin. “We believe weaker data over the past month support a rate cut, but there is probably only one voting configuration (5-4) that can deliver it. Swing voters [Andrew] Bailey, [Sarah] Breeden, and [Dave] Ramsden will likely be needed to vote for a cut to get it over the line.”
Calls for a reduction in borrowing costs are not without merit. Recent figures have shown a clear softening in the growth dynamic, a concern for policymakers.
The UK reported a further cooling in average earnings in the three months to August. Analysts noted that private-sector regular wage growth is on track to undershoot the BoE’s 4.6% Q3 projection by around four-tenths of a percentage point. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly accelerated to 4.8%.
Meanwhile, headline CPI held steady in September at 3.8% y/y, missing the 4.0% consensus and marking a third consecutive month of flat inflation.
The quarterly economic revisions will be detailed in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report.
In a recent speech, Chief Economist Huw Pill outlined changes to how the MPC communicates its decisions and presents the MPR, incorporating recommendations from the Bernanke Review. In future, the minutes will allow each member space to explain their own view.
Barclays’ Jack Meaning noted that the MPC had seen three key misses in its forecasts—CPI inflation, GDP, and wage growth—all likely to be revised lower in the near term. “However, we expect the medium-term forecast to be little changed, with the two- and three-year-ahead inflation projections remaining at 2.5% and 2.0%, respectively.”
Economists at BofA Global Research said they expect a 6-3 vote to hold rates. “While a cut in November can’t be ruled out, our view is that the BoE would likely want to see more decisive inflation progress, limited second-round effects, further evidence on 2026 wage awards, and the 26 November Budget contours before cutting again.”
They added that the central bank would continue to steer policy gradually and on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
“The BoE is also likely to emphasise that monetary policy is not on a pre-set path; the timing of future cuts is uncertain and will depend on how underlying disinflationary pressures evolve.”