US Retail Growth Slows; Weak Jobs Data and Lower Confidence Raise Flags
- Control group beats forecasts but growth eases from June’s pace - Promotional events provide temporary boost to July sales - Consumer sentiment slips to three-month low amid tariff concerns - Weak payrolls data adds to questions over labour market resilience
US consumption maintained a firm pace in July, though growth cooled from the prior month and came in slightly below expectations, according to the latest Census Bureau report.
Advance retail sales rose 0.5% m/m in July, missing forecasts by 0.1pp and slowing from an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in June. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.3%, in line with forecasts but below June’s 0.8% gain. Sales excluding both autos and gasoline climbed 0.2%, easing from 0.8% previously.
The control group — which excludes food services, autos, and building materials, and feeds directly into GDP estimates — increased 0.5%, slightly ahead of forecasts but down from June’s 0.8%. The annualised three-month average rate rose to 4.4% from 3.9%, the highest since April.
Statisticians said non-store retailers, and food services and drinking places, were key contributors to the July headline figure.
Barclays economist Jonathan Miller said some of the strength reflected promotional activity. “Although July’s numbers were partly boosted by Amazon Prime Day and other similar promotional events, upward revisions to prior months’ data suggest that household spending is on a firmer footing than earlier thought. However, we could expect some payback in subsequent months.”
After a strong June, food services sales fell 0.4% following a 0.6% increase previously. Miller noted that this is the only retail sales component feeding directly into the BEA’s estimates for consumer service spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of PCE.
Sentiment and labour market data point to caution
Later the same day, University of Michigan data showed consumer sentiment dropping to a three-month low of 58.6 in August from 61.7.
Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics said the decline pointed to heightened concerns over inflation following President Trump’s latest reciprocal tariff hikes. “The drop in the headline sentiment index was entirely due to a sharp fall in the current conditions index to 60.9 from 68.0, which might also reflect some deterioration in labour market conditions, as well as fears over tariff-related price increases.”
Jobs data last week showed July non-farm payrolls rising by just 73,000, far below the 140,000 consensus. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% and would have hit 4.3% without rounding. June’s jobs growth was revised down to 14,000 from 133,000, while May’s was cut to 19,000 from 144,000.
Walmart and Target are set to report Q2 earnings next week, offering further insight into consumer spending trends.
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- Control group beats forecasts but growth eases from June’s pace
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
15 August 2025 | 15:15 GMT
US consumption maintained a firm pace in July, though growth cooled from the prior month and came in slightly below expectations, according to the latest Census Bureau report.
Advance retail sales rose 0.5% m/m in July, missing forecasts by 0.1pp and slowing from an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in June. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.3%, in line with forecasts but below June’s 0.8% gain. Sales excluding both autos and gasoline climbed 0.2%, easing from 0.8% previously.
The control group — which excludes food services, autos, and building materials, and feeds directly into GDP estimates — increased 0.5%, slightly ahead of forecasts but down from June’s 0.8%. The annualised three-month average rate rose to 4.4% from 3.9%, the highest since April.
Statisticians said non-store retailers, and food services and drinking places, were key contributors to the July headline figure.
Barclays economist Jonathan Miller said some of the strength reflected promotional activity. “Although July’s numbers were partly boosted by Amazon Prime Day and other similar promotional events, upward revisions to prior months’ data suggest that household spending is on a firmer footing than earlier thought. However, we could expect some payback in subsequent months.”
After a strong June, food services sales fell 0.4% following a 0.6% increase previously. Miller noted that this is the only retail sales component feeding directly into the BEA’s estimates for consumer service spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of PCE.
Later the same day, University of Michigan data showed consumer sentiment dropping to a three-month low of 58.6 in August from 61.7.
Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics said the decline pointed to heightened concerns over inflation following President Trump’s latest reciprocal tariff hikes. “The drop in the headline sentiment index was entirely due to a sharp fall in the current conditions index to 60.9 from 68.0, which might also reflect some deterioration in labour market conditions, as well as fears over tariff-related price increases.”
Jobs data last week showed July non-farm payrolls rising by just 73,000, far below the 140,000 consensus. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% and would have hit 4.3% without rounding. June’s jobs growth was revised down to 14,000 from 133,000, while May’s was cut to 19,000 from 144,000.
Walmart and Target are set to report Q2 earnings next week, offering further insight into consumer spending trends.