US Payrolls Report Expected to be Eclipsed by Tariffs
-Headline to fall to 140,000 (Prev 151,000) -Jobless rate forecast at 4.1% (Prev 4.1%) -Data due Friday at 12:30 GMT/08:30 EST
By Chris Stadele for Livesquawk
07 March 2025
CHICAGO - Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will round off another volatile week for US equity markets. It could offer an early insight into how President Donald Trump’s tariff and government reduction policies have influenced hiring in 2025.
Economists surveyed expect 140,000 jobs to have been created in March, down from 151,000 in February. Post-pandemic March job creation has been erratic, ranging from 824,000 in 2021 to just 85,000 in 2023.
Are previous reports a sign of what’s to come? Economists had forecast job growth of 160,000 in February, but the actual figure was lower. January’s numbers were also revised down from 143,000 to 125,000.
With both early 2025 reports falling short of expectations, employers already appeared cautious about hiring amid the Trump administration’s unpredictable economic policies.
Will DOGE affect this report?
Analysts said that, unlike the January and February figures, March data is likely to reflect the impact of Elon Musk’s DOGE programme.
Bank of America noted last week: “Government job growth is expected to come in at just 10,000 due to the federal hiring freeze and DOGE. Given the muted claims data in the survey week, we do not expect DOGE-driven job cuts to be a significant drag, although risks are to the downside.”
Barclays issued a similar assessment: “Risks to our forecasts are skewed to the downside, with DOGE layoffs still taking shape.”
Citigroup did not specifically mention DOGE but echoed Bank of America’s expectation that only 10,000 government jobs were created in March. The bank also voiced concerns about upcoming reports and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts, saying: “While this report would not yet raise alarms for Fed officials, we think it will be consistent with some weakening in the labour market, a trend we expect to accelerate in spring and summer.”
Unemployment rate, earnings to moderate February’s unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%, though HSBC and Citigroup predict a slight rise to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase by 0.3%, unchanged from the previous month.
Bank estimates for March jobs report
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-Headline to fall to 140,000 (Prev 151,000)
-Jobless rate forecast at 4.1% (Prev 4.1%)
-Data due Friday at 12:30 GMT/08:30 EST
By Chris Stadele for Livesquawk
07 March 2025
CHICAGO - Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will round off another volatile week for US equity markets. It could offer an early insight into how President Donald Trump’s tariff and government reduction policies have influenced hiring in 2025.
Economists surveyed expect 140,000 jobs to have been created in March, down from 151,000 in February. Post-pandemic March job creation has been erratic, ranging from 824,000 in 2021 to just 85,000 in 2023.
Are previous reports a sign of what’s to come?
Economists had forecast job growth of 160,000 in February, but the actual figure was lower. January’s numbers were also revised down from 143,000 to 125,000.
With both early 2025 reports falling short of expectations, employers already appeared cautious about hiring amid the Trump administration’s unpredictable economic policies.
Will DOGE affect this report?
Analysts said that, unlike the January and February figures, March data is likely to reflect the impact of Elon Musk’s DOGE programme.
Bank of America noted last week: “Government job growth is expected to come in at just 10,000 due to the federal hiring freeze and DOGE. Given the muted claims data in the survey week, we do not expect DOGE-driven job cuts to be a significant drag, although risks are to the downside.”
Barclays issued a similar assessment: “Risks to our forecasts are skewed to the downside, with DOGE layoffs still taking shape.”
Citigroup did not specifically mention DOGE but echoed Bank of America’s expectation that only 10,000 government jobs were created in March. The bank also voiced concerns about upcoming reports and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts, saying: “While this report would not yet raise alarms for Fed officials, we think it will be consistent with some weakening in the labour market, a trend we expect to accelerate in spring and summer.”
Unemployment rate, earnings to moderate
February’s unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%, though HSBC and Citigroup predict a slight rise to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase by 0.3%, unchanged from the previous month.