- Fed officials more focused on inflation side of mandate
- Data scheduled for Friday at 08:30 EST/12:30 GMT
By Rob Lane
LiveSquawk News
20:00 GMT | 06 August 2026
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show the US jobs market continued to expand in July, at a faster pace than last month, when plummeting household employment contributed to a weaker-than-expected month.
The latest consensus forecast puts the headline payroll figure at 80K, up from the 57K disappointment in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, while economists estimate the labour force participation rate (LFPR) will increase slightly to 61.6%.
According to ADP data, private job growth was the weakest in months, but wage growth remained firm, suggesting companies are slowing hiring without aggressively cutting workers. Both S&P Global's Services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services survey showed continued expansion.
Societe Generale note that all nine regional Fed surveys that measure activity across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms suggest positive employment growth for their regions, and this is the first time since 2022 that all the surveys are suggesting increasing payrolls at the same time.
According to Citi, outside of large surprises, the job report may have limited ability to move Fed pricing. But risks are tilted toward a softer report with the potential for a larger rise in unemployment should the participation rate rebound or for downward revisions to the (already softer) June report.
Citi assert “It is hard to understate the uncertainty around the unemployment rate this month after the modest 0.1pp decline in June occurred alongside a much larger 0.3pp drop in the labour force participation rate.”
BMO say the recent “Challenger figures revealed that job cut announcements dropped -46.1% YoY in July. This is just the latest in a series of employment proxies that suggest the official BLS data is more likely to surprise on the upside than to disappoint.”
National Bank of Canada analysts say, “Based on the weekly data released by ADP and previously published “soft” employment indicators, such as S&P Global's flash composite PMI, job creation likely remained decent during the month, although not as robust as what we had been accustomed to in the second quarter of the year.”
“Layoffs, for their part, may have remained very limited, judging by the extremely low number of new applications for unemployment benefits.”
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- Hiring to rise at faster rate in July
- Wage growth to continue at a modest pace
- Fed officials more focused on inflation side of mandate
- Data scheduled for Friday at 08:30 EST/12:30 GMT
By Rob Lane
LiveSquawk News
20:00 GMT | 06 August 2026
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show the US jobs market continued to expand in July, at a faster pace than last month, when plummeting household employment contributed to a weaker-than-expected month.
The latest consensus forecast puts the headline payroll figure at 80K, up from the 57K disappointment in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, while economists estimate the labour force participation rate (LFPR) will increase slightly to 61.6%.
According to ADP data, private job growth was the weakest in months, but wage growth remained firm, suggesting companies are slowing hiring without aggressively cutting workers. Both S&P Global's Services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services survey showed continued expansion.
Societe Generale note that all nine regional Fed surveys that measure activity across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms suggest positive employment growth for their regions, and this is the first time since 2022 that all the surveys are suggesting increasing payrolls at the same time.
According to Citi, outside of large surprises, the job report may have limited ability to move Fed pricing. But risks are tilted toward a softer report with the potential for a larger rise in unemployment should the participation rate rebound or for downward revisions to the (already softer) June report.
Citi assert “It is hard to understate the uncertainty around the unemployment rate this month after the modest 0.1pp decline in June occurred alongside a much larger 0.3pp drop in the labour force participation rate.”
BMO say the recent “Challenger figures revealed that job cut announcements dropped -46.1% YoY in July. This is just the latest in a series of employment proxies that suggest the official BLS data is more likely to surprise on the upside than to disappoint.”
National Bank of Canada analysts say, “Based on the weekly data released by ADP and previously published “soft” employment indicators, such as S&P Global's flash composite PMI, job creation likely remained decent during the month, although not as robust as what we had been accustomed to in the second quarter of the year.”
“Layoffs, for their part, may have remained very limited, judging by the extremely low number of new applications for unemployment benefits.”