US Payrolls And CPI In Focus As Consumer Momentum Fades
- January seen modestly higher; unemployment steady - Benchmark revisions could materially reshape narrative - Retail sales stall in December as control group momentum slows - Softer wage growth and spending backdrop underpin Fed easing bets
US data arrive thick and fast this week, with the nonfarm payrolls and CPI reports likely to set the tone for investors.
The unusual timing of the January jobs report reflects the partial government shutdown, which once again disrupted federal statistical operations.
The consensus looks for payrolls to rise by 68,000 in January, a modest pickup from December’s 50,000 gain. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.4%.
Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% m/m, while the y/y rate is seen easing a tenth to 3.7%.
Alongside the monthly figures, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its annual benchmark revisions. Deutsche Bank noted that these adjustments could materially reshape the recent trend. “We already received the preliminary estimate in September, which suggested payrolls were 911,000 lower as of March 2025. However, the final revision can differ from the preliminary release. Last year’s preliminary benchmark revision was -818,000, but the final figure was a smaller -589,000, so less negative than initially feared.”
With purchasing power closely tied to job security, it was perhaps unsurprising that retail sales stalled in December.
Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s chief economist, said wage trends in the second half of 2025 mirrored the slowdown in hiring and broader cooling in the labour market. “Growth in total compensation continued to run modestly above pre-Covid levels in 2025 due to faster gains in the first half of the year. But we expect employment costs to ease back towards normal in 2026, with hiring in many industries still subdued, rising about 3.0%.”
Ahead of the release, government officials appeared to temper expectations for a strong print. Peter Navarro, senior trade adviser to the White House, told Fox Business on Tuesday: “We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like.”
He argued that immigration had artificially inflated labour supply in recent years and suggested that President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal workers would reduce the number of jobs required to maintain labour-market balance.
Pressed on whether he was bracing for a weak outturn, Navarro pushed back. “Not expecting a weak number,” he said. “I’m just saying that going forward, when we see a number under 100,000, we don’t wring our hands.”
NFP Bank Estimates
Weak consumer spend
The Census Bureau reported that headline retail sales were flat in December, down from November’s 0.6% gain. Ex-auto sales were also unchanged on the month, versus a downwardly revised 0.4% previously. Both measures were expected to rise by 0.4%. Control group sales fell 0.1% m/m, against expectations of a 0.4% increase and a revised 0.2% gain in November.
The weakness was broad-based. Apparel stores were the largest drag, down 0.7%, while miscellaneous retailers, general merchandise, health and personal care, and furniture stores also declined. Motor vehicle and parts dealers fell 0.2% m/m, despite a 1.9% rise in unit vehicle sales. Restaurant sales slipped 0.1%, marking the slowest three-month gain since Q1 2025.
Underlying momentum also softened. The three-month annualised pace of control-group sales slowed to 2.6%, down from 6.4% in September.
In his assessment, Barclays’ Jonathan Millar said that although seasonal adjustments likely exaggerated December’s drop, consumer spending appeared to be on a softer footing at the end of 2025 amid slowing wage growth.
The resilience of the US consumer may be tested further in the coming months, lending some support to current market pricing for additional Federal Reserve easing.
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- January seen modestly higher; unemployment steady
- Benchmark revisions could materially reshape narrative
- Retail sales stall in December as control group momentum slows
- Softer wage growth and spending backdrop underpin Fed easing bets
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
10 February 2026 | 15:30 GMT
US data arrive thick and fast this week, with the nonfarm payrolls and CPI reports likely to set the tone for investors.
The unusual timing of the January jobs report reflects the partial government shutdown, which once again disrupted federal statistical operations.
The consensus looks for payrolls to rise by 68,000 in January, a modest pickup from December’s 50,000 gain. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.4%.
Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% m/m, while the y/y rate is seen easing a tenth to 3.7%.
Alongside the monthly figures, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its annual benchmark revisions. Deutsche Bank noted that these adjustments could materially reshape the recent trend. “We already received the preliminary estimate in September, which suggested payrolls were 911,000 lower as of March 2025. However, the final revision can differ from the preliminary release. Last year’s preliminary benchmark revision was -818,000, but the final figure was a smaller -589,000, so less negative than initially feared.”
With purchasing power closely tied to job security, it was perhaps unsurprising that retail sales stalled in December.
Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s chief economist, said wage trends in the second half of 2025 mirrored the slowdown in hiring and broader cooling in the labour market. “Growth in total compensation continued to run modestly above pre-Covid levels in 2025 due to faster gains in the first half of the year. But we expect employment costs to ease back towards normal in 2026, with hiring in many industries still subdued, rising about 3.0%.”
Ahead of the release, government officials appeared to temper expectations for a strong print. Peter Navarro, senior trade adviser to the White House, told Fox Business on Tuesday: “We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like.”
He argued that immigration had artificially inflated labour supply in recent years and suggested that President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal workers would reduce the number of jobs required to maintain labour-market balance.
Pressed on whether he was bracing for a weak outturn, Navarro pushed back. “Not expecting a weak number,” he said. “I’m just saying that going forward, when we see a number under 100,000, we don’t wring our hands.”
The Census Bureau reported that headline retail sales were flat in December, down from November’s 0.6% gain. Ex-auto sales were also unchanged on the month, versus a downwardly revised 0.4% previously. Both measures were expected to rise by 0.4%. Control group sales fell 0.1% m/m, against expectations of a 0.4% increase and a revised 0.2% gain in November.
The weakness was broad-based. Apparel stores were the largest drag, down 0.7%, while miscellaneous retailers, general merchandise, health and personal care, and furniture stores also declined. Motor vehicle and parts dealers fell 0.2% m/m, despite a 1.9% rise in unit vehicle sales. Restaurant sales slipped 0.1%, marking the slowest three-month gain since Q1 2025.
Underlying momentum also softened. The three-month annualised pace of control-group sales slowed to 2.6%, down from 6.4% in September.
In his assessment, Barclays’ Jonathan Millar said that although seasonal adjustments likely exaggerated December’s drop, consumer spending appeared to be on a softer footing at the end of 2025 amid slowing wage growth.
The resilience of the US consumer may be tested further in the coming months, lending some support to current market pricing for additional Federal Reserve easing.