US Inflation Picks Up In June But Tariff Effects Remain Benign
- Headline CPI rises to 2.7% y/y in June, above forecast - Super-core inflation hits highest level since February - Shelter, energy drive gains; vehicle prices and airfares fall - Market focus shifts to 1 August tariff deadline
Figures released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed few signs of significant inflationary pass-through from tariffs, despite a modest upside surprise in the headline numbers.
Annual headline CPI rose 2.7% in June, above the 2.6% consensus and accelerating from May’s 2.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 2.9% y/y, matching forecasts and up slightly from 2.8%. On the month, headline CPI rose 0.3%, in line with expectations, while the core measure climbed 0.2%, a tenth below the median estimate.
The BLS said shelter remained the largest contributor to the monthly increase, with energy prices also adding upward pressure. Excluding food and energy, gains were reported in categories including household furnishings, medical care, recreation, apparel, and personal care. Prices for used and new vehicles, as well as airline fares, declined.
The so-called super-core CPI — which strips out all goods prices, food, energy, and housing — rose by an unrounded 0.212% m/m, the highest since February, up from 0.06% in May. On a y/y basis, the rate picked up to 3.017% from 2.862%.
Bradley Saunders of Capital Economics commented, “Once again, there were limited signs of tariff effects, with price pressures contained to select areas. Core services inflation was also subdued at just 0.3%, or 0.25% to two decimal places, helped by a 0.18% rise in shelter costs – the slowest in years.”
Tariff tensions build
With Washington’s self-imposed 1 August deadline for trade concessions looming, President Trump over the weekend warned of fresh tariffs on the European Union and Mexico. On Truth Social, he said the US would implement “a Tariff of only 30% on EU products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs.”
The renewed threats are expected to keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until there is more clarity on trade developments.
Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said: “The soft core inflation reading supports our call that the Fed can begin cutting rates as soon as September. That said, the timing remains uncertain, especially with the risk of fresh tariffs clouding the inflation and growth outlook in the second half of the year.”
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- Headline CPI rises to 2.7% y/y in June, above forecast
- Super-core inflation hits highest level since February
- Shelter, energy drive gains; vehicle prices and airfares fall
- Market focus shifts to 1 August tariff deadline
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
15 July 2025 | 15:15 GMT
Figures released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed few signs of significant inflationary pass-through from tariffs, despite a modest upside surprise in the headline numbers.
Annual headline CPI rose 2.7% in June, above the 2.6% consensus and accelerating from May’s 2.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 2.9% y/y, matching forecasts and up slightly from 2.8%. On the month, headline CPI rose 0.3%, in line with expectations, while the core measure climbed 0.2%, a tenth below the median estimate.
The BLS said shelter remained the largest contributor to the monthly increase, with energy prices also adding upward pressure. Excluding food and energy, gains were reported in categories including household furnishings, medical care, recreation, apparel, and personal care. Prices for used and new vehicles, as well as airline fares, declined.
The so-called super-core CPI — which strips out all goods prices, food, energy, and housing — rose by an unrounded 0.212% m/m, the highest since February, up from 0.06% in May. On a y/y basis, the rate picked up to 3.017% from 2.862%.
Bradley Saunders of Capital Economics commented, “Once again, there were limited signs of tariff effects, with price pressures contained to select areas. Core services inflation was also subdued at just 0.3%, or 0.25% to two decimal places, helped by a 0.18% rise in shelter costs – the slowest in years.”
With Washington’s self-imposed 1 August deadline for trade concessions looming, President Trump over the weekend warned of fresh tariffs on the European Union and Mexico. On Truth Social, he said the US would implement “a Tariff of only 30% on EU products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs.”
The renewed threats are expected to keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until there is more clarity on trade developments.
Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said: “The soft core inflation reading supports our call that the Fed can begin cutting rates as soon as September. That said, the timing remains uncertain, especially with the risk of fresh tariffs clouding the inflation and growth outlook in the second half of the year.”