US Growth and Inflation Gauges Likely to Bolster Policymakers' Confidence
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username: data.username,
subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group,
display_name: data.display_name,
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php_session_id: data.php_session_id,
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- Quarterly GDP growth forecast at 3.0% (prev 3.0%)
- Household consumption supports domestic demand
- PCE inflation softer on the quarter, steady on the month
- Fed expected to cut rates again 7 November
- Data due Wednesday at 12:30 GMT / 08:30 EST
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
29 October 2024 | 15:00 GMT
According to experts, the prospect of a US recession has diminished somewhat. The investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates it at just 15%, effectively relieving any pressure on the Federal Reserve to push through additional near-term interest rate cuts.
An economists’ poll estimated that GDP growth matched Q2’s pace of 3.0% in the three months to June, with personal consumption forecast to have risen to 3.3% from 2.8%. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to have eased to 2.0% over the quarter, down from a previous 2.8%.
Analysts note that domestic demand likely remained strong during the quarter, supported by household consumption. Non-residential investment was also forecast to have contributed positively to the headline growth.
Goldman Sachs said, “Recent employment data brings job market signals into line with broader economic growth signals. Real GDP grew 3% in the second quarter and an estimated 3.2% in the third quarter. The strong economic activity data and the recent rebound in oil prices on fears of escalation from the Middle East conflict haven't changed [our] conviction that inflation will cool further.”
Despite better-than-expected outturns of key economic data since the last decision, SOFR markets are currently pricing in a near 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut in interest rates from the current 4.75%-5.00% target range, based on the CME FedWatch tool. The penultimate meeting of the year is on 7 November.
Barclays suggested incoming data remain consistent with solid growth momentum. “Even with the soft capital goods shipments data — which owes, in part, to strike-related disruptions at Boeing — we are still tracking a 7.3% q/q saar in Q3, about 2.5 percentage points slower than both our prior tracking and the estimated pace in Q2.”
Investors will gain a quarterly view of the core PCE rate within Wednesday’s report. However, a day later, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its timelier Personal Income and Outlays report for September, which will also update monthly PCE inflation.
Personal income is forecast to have advanced 0.3% on the month, and spending is predicted to have increased 0.4%. Both measures are above August levels.
“Core PCE inflation for September […] should be a bit stronger than over the last few months,” Citi said. “There is some potential for further strength in October from components like medical or financial services, but we still expect core inflation to average close to 2% over the coming months.
“While shelter inflation in CPI/PCE will be based on rent data and could remain volatile over the coming months, subdued housing demand should support further slowing. This would be one of the first channels to see any reflation risk from Fed rate cuts, and so far, that risk looks very low.”