Expectations of a 25bp cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting have become well entrenched, but a stickier-than-anticipated inflation print on Thursday would likely temper speculation of a more expansive move.
The latest analysts' poll forecasts headline CPI to rise 0.3% m/m in August, up from 0.2% in July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to increase 0.3% for a second consecutive month. On an annual basis, headline inflation is expected to accelerate by two-tenths to 2.9%, while core inflation is forecast to remain at 3.1%.
Analysts had anticipated that the effects of President Trump’s trade war would only really become apparent from September or October time, but some now suggest signs could already emerge in the August data. A key signal of increasing tariff headwinds is in core goods prices, which rose 0.209% in July after a 0.198% increase in June.
Drilling down into the data
Barclays’ Pooja Sriram predicted a modest uptick in core inflation as tariff pass-through becomes clearer. “A widespread boost to core goods prices has not been borne out in the data as of yet, but there are clear signs of upward price pressures across categories. We expect this to become more evident in coming months as firms increase imports amid falling inventories.”
Last month, core CPI rose 0.3% (0.322% unrounded), above the prior 0.2% increase and the most significant gain since January. The so-called super-core index, which excludes goods, food, energy, and housing, jumped to 0.479% from 0.212% previously, returning to January levels.
Ahead of CPI, the producer price index will be published on Wednesday. Morgan Stanley noted that while it could raise questions over the CPI outlook, bank economists consider PPI too volatile to provide a reliable signal for inflation in the same month.
Monetary policy implications
Market pricing implies that a quarter-point cut at the 16–17 September FOMC meeting is virtually assured. While a half-point move remains an outlier, a growing number of analysts view it as a remote possibility.
Speaking at the St Louis Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the persistence of inflation pressures, whilst employment risks were rising, creating a rare conflict between the Fed’s dual mandate. Barclays said it continues to expect a 25bp cut next week, followed by another in December. “We view the bar to not cut rates in September as high, especially after Chair Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole.”
Friday’s weak nonfarm payroll report and Tuesday’s outsized annual benchmark employment revision, which revealed larger-than-expected job losses in the year to March, further reinforced expectations that the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle is set to resume in earnest.
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- Headline and core rates forecast at 0.3% m/m
- Tariff pass-through pressure becoming more evident
- Powell flags rising employment risks at Jackson Hole
- Resumption of easing cycle predicted despite cost growth
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
10 September 2025 | GMT
Expectations of a 25bp cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting have become well entrenched, but a stickier-than-anticipated inflation print on Thursday would likely temper speculation of a more expansive move.
The latest analysts' poll forecasts headline CPI to rise 0.3% m/m in August, up from 0.2% in July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to increase 0.3% for a second consecutive month. On an annual basis, headline inflation is expected to accelerate by two-tenths to 2.9%, while core inflation is forecast to remain at 3.1%.
Analysts had anticipated that the effects of President Trump’s trade war would only really become apparent from September or October time, but some now suggest signs could already emerge in the August data. A key signal of increasing tariff headwinds is in core goods prices, which rose 0.209% in July after a 0.198% increase in June.
Barclays’ Pooja Sriram predicted a modest uptick in core inflation as tariff pass-through becomes clearer. “A widespread boost to core goods prices has not been borne out in the data as of yet, but there are clear signs of upward price pressures across categories. We expect this to become more evident in coming months as firms increase imports amid falling inventories.”
Last month, core CPI rose 0.3% (0.322% unrounded), above the prior 0.2% increase and the most significant gain since January. The so-called super-core index, which excludes goods, food, energy, and housing, jumped to 0.479% from 0.212% previously, returning to January levels.
Ahead of CPI, the producer price index will be published on Wednesday. Morgan Stanley noted that while it could raise questions over the CPI outlook, bank economists consider PPI too volatile to provide a reliable signal for inflation in the same month.
Market pricing implies that a quarter-point cut at the 16–17 September FOMC meeting is virtually assured. While a half-point move remains an outlier, a growing number of analysts view it as a remote possibility.
Speaking at the St Louis Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the persistence of inflation pressures, whilst employment risks were rising, creating a rare conflict between the Fed’s dual mandate. Barclays said it continues to expect a 25bp cut next week, followed by another in December. “We view the bar to not cut rates in September as high, especially after Chair Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole.”
Friday’s weak nonfarm payroll report and Tuesday’s outsized annual benchmark employment revision, which revealed larger-than-expected job losses in the year to March, further reinforced expectations that the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle is set to resume in earnest.