US August Hiring Set To Tick Higher As Manufacturing Concerns Rise
The US labour market is flying high no more (Photo: Culp)
- Headline forecast to rise to 75,000 (prev. 73,000)
- Jobless rate projected at 4.3% (prev. 4.2%)
- Data due Friday at 12:30 GMT
By Chris Stadele for Livesquawk
5 September 2025 | 09:05 GMT
Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is set to update the status of the US labour market and cap off a volatile, holiday-shortened week when concerns over the fate of Washington’s tariffs and FOMC interest rates rattled the status quo.
Economists said they expect that the US economy added 75,000 jobs in August, a mark a touch higher than the 73,000 jobs created in July. If accurate, the forecast print could suggest hiring has started to stabilise from May and June, when only 19,000 and 14,000 jobs were created respectively. The numbers for May-July were the first below 100,000 since October of last year: In 2025, the monthly average has been around 85,000 a month.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its initial monthly results both higher or lower this year. For example, in the July report, the BLS lowered May payrolls to 19,000 from 144,000, and cut June’s figures to 14,000 from 133,000 previously. Simultaneously, the BLS clarified that these revisions “were larger than normal.” As Societe Generale noted late last week, these “statistical revisions may cloud the outlook.”
Those revision displeased US President Donald Trump enough to sack the head of the BLS not long after they were made public.
Manufacturing Remains a Sore Spot
Some analysts may pay closer attention to sector specific figures, such as manufacturing. Last month, sector payrolls fell 11,000, the most in 2025, marking the third consecutive month of declines. According to figures from the Institute for Supply Management, US manufacturing has contracted for a sixth-straight month in August, which has suppressed employment.
Trump’s border policy could also start to affect payrolls, according to some analysts. In a note earlier this week, CIBC wrote, “Tight border controls and accelerating deportations have significantly lowered the bar for how many payrolls jobs we’ll need to keep the unemployment rate from rising. So we could get a slightly below-consensus and unimpressive payrolls count, at the same time as the jobless rate continues to hug a lean 4.2%.”
That said, the unemployment rate for August is expected to increase a tenth to 4.3%. This would be highest since October 2021, when unemployment was falling and attempting to stabilise after the pandemic.
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- Headline forecast to rise to 75,000 (prev. 73,000)
- Jobless rate projected at 4.3% (prev. 4.2%)
- Data due Friday at 12:30 GMT
By Chris Stadele for Livesquawk
5 September 2025 | 09:05 GMT
Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is set to update the status of the US labour market and cap off a volatile, holiday-shortened week when concerns over the fate of Washington’s tariffs and FOMC interest rates rattled the status quo.
Economists said they expect that the US economy added 75,000 jobs in August, a mark a touch higher than the 73,000 jobs created in July. If accurate, the forecast print could suggest hiring has started to stabilise from May and June, when only 19,000 and 14,000 jobs were created respectively. The numbers for May-July were the first below 100,000 since October of last year: In 2025, the monthly average has been around 85,000 a month.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its initial monthly results both higher or lower this year. For example, in the July report, the BLS lowered May payrolls to 19,000 from 144,000, and cut June’s figures to 14,000 from 133,000 previously. Simultaneously, the BLS clarified that these revisions “were larger than normal.” As Societe Generale noted late last week, these “statistical revisions may cloud the outlook.”
Those revision displeased US President Donald Trump enough to sack the head of the BLS not long after they were made public.
Manufacturing Remains a Sore Spot
Some analysts may pay closer attention to sector specific figures, such as manufacturing. Last month, sector payrolls fell 11,000, the most in 2025, marking the third consecutive month of declines. According to figures from the Institute for Supply Management, US manufacturing has contracted for a sixth-straight month in August, which has suppressed employment.
Trump’s border policy could also start to affect payrolls, according to some analysts. In a note earlier this week, CIBC wrote, “Tight border controls and accelerating deportations have significantly lowered the bar for how many payrolls jobs we’ll need to keep the unemployment rate from rising. So we could get a slightly below-consensus and unimpressive payrolls count, at the same time as the jobless rate continues to hug a lean 4.2%.”
That said, the unemployment rate for August is expected to increase a tenth to 4.3%. This would be highest since October 2021, when unemployment was falling and attempting to stabilise after the pandemic.