LONDON – The resilience of the British consumer is coming under increasing strain, with slower wage growth and the rising cost of living reflected in the latest retail sales data.
The Office for National Statistics said retail sales fell 1.3% m/m in April, far weaker than analyst expectations for a 0.6% decline. March’s reading was revised up to a 0.6% increase. On an annual basis, sales were flat, missing forecasts of a 1.3% rise and slowing sharply from the previously revised 1.4% gain.
Excluding automotive fuel, sales declined 0.4% m/m in April, slightly weaker than expected and reversing a revised 0.1% increase in March. On the year, sales rose 1.1%, undershooting forecasts for a 1.7% increase and slowing from the prior month’s 1.5% pace.
Statisticians said clothing store sales volumes fell to their lowest level since June 2025. Non-store retailers also recorded monthly declines, citing weaker demand and unpredictable weather that disrupted seasonal campaigns.
Given the volatility of monthly data, the ONS pointed to underlying trends as a more reliable gauge of activity. In the three months to April, retail sales rose 0.5% compared with the previous three-month period to January.
Breaking down the figures, ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said strong and sustained demand at beauty product retailers, alongside solid sales at computer and technology stores, supported the three-month-on-three-month increase.
Statisticians added that non-store retailers, primarily online businesses, had rebounded from a weak November, with sales boosted in March by spring discounting and new product launches. Online sales increased over the three months to April, although they fell on the month across all major sectors.
Source: Office for National Statistics
Implications for monetary policy
Oxford Economics’ UK team said this week’s run of UK data releases had given the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee additional scope to leave Bank Rate unchanged while assessing the risks from a potentially more persistent inflation shock.
Earlier in the week, the UK released labour market and inflation data.
“CPI inflation surprised to the downside in April, with smaller-than-expected rises in regulated and indexed prices baking in lower inflation in these categories for the next year,” said Oxford Economics chief UK economist Andrew Goodwin. “Pay growth cooled further, while there were clear signs the jobs market is continuing to loosen. Indeed, evidence of demand weakness suggests labour market conditions will likely loosen further this year.”
Recent comments from bank officials have broadly focused on three themes: slowing domestic growth, uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict and the resulting energy shock, and differing views on how persistent inflation risks may become.
“With no sign that underlying price pressures are building and evidence that activity is weakening, the MPC can keep Bank Rate at its current restrictive level as it waits for more information about how energy prices will evolve, and how this shapes firms’ price- and wage-setting behaviour,” Goodwin concluded.
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- Headline sales sink 1.3% m/m in April (prev R 0.6%)
- Clothing, online retailers hit by weak demand and erratic weather
- Beauty, tech spending help retail growth in positive territory
- Softer inflation and labour data strengthen case for BoE hold
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
12:00 GMT | 22 May 2026
LONDON – The resilience of the British consumer is coming under increasing strain, with slower wage growth and the rising cost of living reflected in the latest retail sales data.
The Office for National Statistics said retail sales fell 1.3% m/m in April, far weaker than analyst expectations for a 0.6% decline. March’s reading was revised up to a 0.6% increase. On an annual basis, sales were flat, missing forecasts of a 1.3% rise and slowing sharply from the previously revised 1.4% gain.
Excluding automotive fuel, sales declined 0.4% m/m in April, slightly weaker than expected and reversing a revised 0.1% increase in March. On the year, sales rose 1.1%, undershooting forecasts for a 1.7% increase and slowing from the prior month’s 1.5% pace.
Statisticians said clothing store sales volumes fell to their lowest level since June 2025. Non-store retailers also recorded monthly declines, citing weaker demand and unpredictable weather that disrupted seasonal campaigns.
Given the volatility of monthly data, the ONS pointed to underlying trends as a more reliable gauge of activity. In the three months to April, retail sales rose 0.5% compared with the previous three-month period to January.
Breaking down the figures, ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said strong and sustained demand at beauty product retailers, alongside solid sales at computer and technology stores, supported the three-month-on-three-month increase.
Statisticians added that non-store retailers, primarily online businesses, had rebounded from a weak November, with sales boosted in March by spring discounting and new product launches. Online sales increased over the three months to April, although they fell on the month across all major sectors.
Oxford Economics’ UK team said this week’s run of UK data releases had given the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee additional scope to leave Bank Rate unchanged while assessing the risks from a potentially more persistent inflation shock.
Earlier in the week, the UK released labour market and inflation data.
“CPI inflation surprised to the downside in April, with smaller-than-expected rises in regulated and indexed prices baking in lower inflation in these categories for the next year,” said Oxford Economics chief UK economist Andrew Goodwin. “Pay growth cooled further, while there were clear signs the jobs market is continuing to loosen. Indeed, evidence of demand weakness suggests labour market conditions will likely loosen further this year.”
Recent comments from bank officials have broadly focused on three themes: slowing domestic growth, uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict and the resulting energy shock, and differing views on how persistent inflation risks may become.
“With no sign that underlying price pressures are building and evidence that activity is weakening, the MPC can keep Bank Rate at its current restrictive level as it waits for more information about how energy prices will evolve, and how this shapes firms’ price- and wage-setting behaviour,” Goodwin concluded.