LONDON – Retail activity improved in June, according to monthly data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), showing broad-based gains despite falling short of forecasts
Headline retail sales rose 0.9% m/m, bouncing back from May’s downwardly revised 2.8% decline but underperforming expectations of a 1.2% increase. On an annual basis, sales increased 1.7%, slightly below the forecast but an improvement from May’s revised drop of 1.1%.
Excluding fuel, sales rose 0.6% m/m in June, missing estimates for a 1.2% climb after a revised 2.9% fall the previous month. Core sales—which exclude fuel and automotive components—improved 1.8% y/y, just shy of expectations but still a marked improvement from May’s adjusted 1.1% decline.
Hannah Finselbach, ONS senior statistician, credited the warmer weather for the pickup in spending. “Supermarket retailers reported stronger trading and an increase in drink purchases. It was also a good month for fuel sales as consumers ventured out and about in the sunshine,” she said.
On a quarterly basis, retail sales rose 0.2% in Q2.
Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor at the EY ITEM Club, noted that retail data tends to be volatile from month to month and cautioned that weakness was concentrated in discretionary categories. “Non-food store sales fell by 0.2% in Q2 compared to Q1. However, ongoing issues with the ONS’s seasonal adjustment make it difficult to interpret movements even at the quarterly level,” he said.
Online spending remained robust, rising 2.3% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year, according to the ONS. Over the quarter, total sales values increased by 3.3% compared to Q1. The share of retail sales made online edged up to 27.8% in June from 27.4% in May.
Consumer sentiment barometer
Meanwhile, sentiment showed signs of strain. The GfK consumer confidence index slipped to -19 in July from -18 in June. “The key measures on personal finances, the economy, and purchase intentions are flat in July, and many will conclude that consumers are in a cautious wait-and-see mood,” said Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK. “But the data suggests some people may be sensing stormy conditions ahead.”
Despite signs of cooling in the labour market, wages remain relatively resilient. The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates at its next meeting on 7 August. Speaking before the UK's Treasury Select Committee, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the Monetary Policy Committee is closely monitoring softening labour conditions and trends in consumer demand.
“There are signs that consumers are becoming slightly more confident,” said EY ITEM Club’s Swannell. “But the retail sector still faces headwinds from slowing wage growth, continued fiscal tightening, and some households refinancing onto higher mortgage rates.”
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- Monthly sales rebound from May’s sharp decline
- Online orders climb as consumers change buying habits
- GfK confidence index dips, suggesting wary customers
- BoE rate cut expected amid softer labour market, cooler demand
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
25 July 2025 | 11:15 GMT
LONDON – Retail activity improved in June, according to monthly data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), showing broad-based gains despite falling short of forecasts
Headline retail sales rose 0.9% m/m, bouncing back from May’s downwardly revised 2.8% decline but underperforming expectations of a 1.2% increase. On an annual basis, sales increased 1.7%, slightly below the forecast but an improvement from May’s revised drop of 1.1%.
Excluding fuel, sales rose 0.6% m/m in June, missing estimates for a 1.2% climb after a revised 2.9% fall the previous month. Core sales—which exclude fuel and automotive components—improved 1.8% y/y, just shy of expectations but still a marked improvement from May’s adjusted 1.1% decline.
Hannah Finselbach, ONS senior statistician, credited the warmer weather for the pickup in spending. “Supermarket retailers reported stronger trading and an increase in drink purchases. It was also a good month for fuel sales as consumers ventured out and about in the sunshine,” she said.
On a quarterly basis, retail sales rose 0.2% in Q2.
Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor at the EY ITEM Club, noted that retail data tends to be volatile from month to month and cautioned that weakness was concentrated in discretionary categories. “Non-food store sales fell by 0.2% in Q2 compared to Q1. However, ongoing issues with the ONS’s seasonal adjustment make it difficult to interpret movements even at the quarterly level,” he said.
Online spending remained robust, rising 2.3% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year, according to the ONS. Over the quarter, total sales values increased by 3.3% compared to Q1. The share of retail sales made online edged up to 27.8% in June from 27.4% in May.
Meanwhile, sentiment showed signs of strain. The GfK consumer confidence index slipped to -19 in July from -18 in June. “The key measures on personal finances, the economy, and purchase intentions are flat in July, and many will conclude that consumers are in a cautious wait-and-see mood,” said Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK. “But the data suggests some people may be sensing stormy conditions ahead.”
Despite signs of cooling in the labour market, wages remain relatively resilient. The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates at its next meeting on 7 August. Speaking before the UK's Treasury Select Committee, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the Monetary Policy Committee is closely monitoring softening labour conditions and trends in consumer demand.
“There are signs that consumers are becoming slightly more confident,” said EY ITEM Club’s Swannell. “But the retail sector still faces headwinds from slowing wage growth, continued fiscal tightening, and some households refinancing onto higher mortgage rates.”