UK’s Autumn Budget 2024: New Chancellor Poised To Embrace Fiscal Prudency
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- Higher borrowing, broader taxation to set the tone
- Updated economic and fiscal forecasts from the OBR
- DMO bond sale remit forecast to rise for 2024/25
- Budget statement scheduled for Wednesday at 12:30 GMT
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
29 October 2024 | 10:00 GMT
LONDON – One of Labour’s main pledges when campaigning ahead of the May general election was to oversee a fiscally responsible government. If Wednesday’s Autumn Budget fails to convince markets of its competency, Liz Truss’s tenure could look like a cakewalk.
Rachel Reeves, Britain’s first-ever female Chancellor of the Exchequer (aka finance minister), is set to present her first budget this week. She will lay out plans for taxes, spending, and borrowing alongside a new set of fiscal rules. The market has already been primed to expect ~GBP 40bn worth of tax hikes and spending cuts.
Over the weekend, the Sunday Times wrote of “rumblings in the City” concerned that Reeves’ statement could meet a similar fate to that of the now infamous Kwasi Kwarteng mini-budget, which collapsed the economy just two years ago.
Typically, investors only really care about the borrowing limits and the Debt Management Office (DMO) remit announcement, as it has the most immediate effect on gilt market volatility.
Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said, “Treasury analysis suggests that borrowing may run further ahead of the March Budget forecasts for the rest of this year, as recent public sector pay settlements and non-labour cost overruns across a range of government departments are likely to push spending higher. The fact that much of this year's overspend will reoccur in future years serves to highlight the challenging fiscal situation the UK finds itself in.”
Experts are predicting higher borrowing this year compared to the Spring estimate, primarily due to higher-than-expected inflation, which can increase debt interest and welfare costs.
BofA’s Sunali Punhani predicted borrowing to rise by GBP 20bn in FY 2024-25 (as previously expected) and by an average of some GBP 22 bn/y in subsequent years relative to the March budget, said to compare to his bank’s previous expectation of around GBP 15 bn/y. “This implies borrowing in FY 2029-30 could be 0.7% of GDP higher relative to March.”
An hour into Reeves’s speech, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts, the Treasury costings and DMO gilt issuance plans are published.
Below are some bank estimates for the 2024/25 fiscal year.
Deutsche Bank: All up, we see total gilt sales pushing from GBP 277.7bn to 302.7bn – a GBP 25bn increase relative to the DMO's April update and broadly unchanged from our preliminary update. Where are risks in our view? Slightly skewed to the downside, we think, as T-Bill issuance could absorb more of the increase in the gross financing requirement for the Treasury than we anticipate.
Citi: We expect the funding need for FY24/25 to rise by GBP 26bn, with the DMO opting to meet this via GBP 10bn gilts (taking the total to GBP 287.7bn) and GBP 16bn Treasury Bills. The big call here is on the gilt/bill split, but we believe the DMO will opt for continuity in the gilt remit and use Treasury bills as the in-year buffer. Indeed, we believe +GBP 10bn gilts can be achieved without adding any extra supply events to the calendar, largely by topping up the allocation to Longs which is ahead of schedule both for auctions and syndications.
BofA: We continue to estimate the Gross Financing Requirement (GFR) to amount to GBP 162.8bn, an increase of GBP 20bn relative to April's Remit. Our expected change in GFR stems from (1) a GBP 14.1bn CGNCR overshoot versus the OBR March forecast as of September and (2) around GBP 10bn Chancellor plans and commitments. We expect these increases to be partially offset by (3) a reduction of about GBP 3bn in CGNCR because of the lower than previously projected capital transfers from the Treasury to the Asset Purchase Facility (APF), due to lower-than-projected active Gilt sales from October.