LONDON – The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that May headline retail sales grew 0.3% on the month bettering the market forecast of -0.2% and last month’s 0.55 print. In the 12 months to May, sales fell 2.1%, above the -2.6% forecast, and last month’s downwardly revised -3.4%.
Sales excluding auto fuel rose 0.1%, exceeding the -0.3% median estimate and the revised 0.7% print for April. Annually, sales fell 1.7%, four-tenths below the consensus, and up from last month’s negatively adjusted drop of 3.0%.
For context, the May figures were framed by a number of national holidays. The reporting period covered 30 April to 27 May. Meaning it includes the early May Bank Holiday on 1 May and the bank holiday for the coronation of King Charles III on 8 May, but excludes the spring bank holiday on 29 May 2023.
Retailers reported that the warmer conditions provided a boost in sales as consumers enjoyed the seasonal sunshine. ONS senior statistician Heather Bovill said online shops did particularly well selling outdoor goods and summer clothes. “Garden centres and DIY stores also saw growth, as the good weather encouraged people to start home and garden improvements.
“These were offset by food sales, which fell back as prices in supermarkets continued to rise, exacerbated by many people ordering takeaways and drinking out more during the extra bank holidays, while jewellery and art also fell back after a strong April.”
Earlier in the week the UK reported consumer prices remained elevated in May, rising 8.7% year-on-year, unchanged from April and well above the central bank’s 2% target.
Falling fuel prices coincided with stronger petrol pump transactions last month. Statisticians said automotive fuel sales rose by 1.7% in May, following a fall of 1.7% in April.
High grocery prices continue to have a negative effect on food stores, retailers said, as sales fell by 0.5% on the month after gaining 0.6% in April.
Resilient household spending to be tested
Ruth Gregory, Deputy Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics noted that “The further rebound in retail sales volumes in May suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But we think it’s too soon to conclude the rebound in retail sales will be sustained and the economy will avoid a recession.”
On Thursday, the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a point to 5.0%, a 13th consecutive increase in borrowing costs, as it attempts to tame high inflation. And analysts warn that this will add to the debt service costs of some 2.5 million households exposed to higher mortgage rates this year.
Policymakers at Threadneedle Street made it clear that the economy still needs to cool further in order to steer inflation lower, although Governor Andrew Bailey insisted that “We are not desiring a recession, but we will do what is necessary to bring inflation down.”
“The fact that seven members voted for a 50bp rate hike – signalled that the BoE is running out of confidence and patience in both its models, as well as surveys and other leading inflation metrics,” James Smith, Developed Markets economist at ING noted. “Both of which have pointed to improving inflation outcomes for a little while now.”
Capital Economics Gregory said that, overall, the figures were far better than the research firm had expected. “But our view is still that the growing drag on activity from higher interest rates will eventually tip the economy into recession, generating a 0.5% peak to trough fall in real consumer spending.”
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- Strong consumer activity surprises analysts
- Warmer weather helps figures despite May holidays
- Shopper resilience to be tested by higher interest rates
- Higher food costs hurt grocery store sales
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
23 June 2022 | 11:00 GMT
LONDON – The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that May headline retail sales grew 0.3% on the month bettering the market forecast of -0.2% and last month’s 0.55 print. In the 12 months to May, sales fell 2.1%, above the -2.6% forecast, and last month’s downwardly revised -3.4%.
Sales excluding auto fuel rose 0.1%, exceeding the -0.3% median estimate and the revised 0.7% print for April. Annually, sales fell 1.7%, four-tenths below the consensus, and up from last month’s negatively adjusted drop of 3.0%.
For context, the May figures were framed by a number of national holidays. The reporting period covered 30 April to 27 May. Meaning it includes the early May Bank Holiday on 1 May and the bank holiday for the coronation of King Charles III on 8 May, but excludes the spring bank holiday on 29 May 2023.
Retailers reported that the warmer conditions provided a boost in sales as consumers enjoyed the seasonal sunshine. ONS senior statistician Heather Bovill said online shops did particularly well selling outdoor goods and summer clothes. “Garden centres and DIY stores also saw growth, as the good weather encouraged people to start home and garden improvements.
“These were offset by food sales, which fell back as prices in supermarkets continued to rise, exacerbated by many people ordering takeaways and drinking out more during the extra bank holidays, while jewellery and art also fell back after a strong April.”
Earlier in the week the UK reported consumer prices remained elevated in May, rising 8.7% year-on-year, unchanged from April and well above the central bank’s 2% target.
Falling fuel prices coincided with stronger petrol pump transactions last month. Statisticians said automotive fuel sales rose by 1.7% in May, following a fall of 1.7% in April.
High grocery prices continue to have a negative effect on food stores, retailers said, as sales fell by 0.5% on the month after gaining 0.6% in April.
Ruth Gregory, Deputy Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics noted that “The further rebound in retail sales volumes in May suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But we think it’s too soon to conclude the rebound in retail sales will be sustained and the economy will avoid a recession.”
On Thursday, the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a point to 5.0%, a 13th consecutive increase in borrowing costs, as it attempts to tame high inflation. And analysts warn that this will add to the debt service costs of some 2.5 million households exposed to higher mortgage rates this year.
Policymakers at Threadneedle Street made it clear that the economy still needs to cool further in order to steer inflation lower, although Governor Andrew Bailey insisted that “We are not desiring a recession, but we will do what is necessary to bring inflation down.”
“The fact that seven members voted for a 50bp rate hike – signalled that the BoE is running out of confidence and patience in both its models, as well as surveys and other leading inflation metrics,” James Smith, Developed Markets economist at ING noted. “Both of which have pointed to improving inflation outcomes for a little while now.”
Capital Economics Gregory said that, overall, the figures were far better than the research firm had expected. “But our view is still that the growing drag on activity from higher interest rates will eventually tip the economy into recession, generating a 0.5% peak to trough fall in real consumer spending.”