London – Heavy discounting by retailers appeared to encourage spending in the run-up to Christmas despite revised figures that showed the UK’s economic output underperforming over previous quarters.
Headline retail sales increased 1.3% in the month to November, an outsized gain compared with the 0.4% estimate, and well above the upwardly revised flat print in October. Annually, sales also positively surprised, growing 0.1% versus the 1.3% predicted slide and the previous month’s adjusted 2.5% fall.
Excluding fuel, sales grew at a monthly rate of 1.3% compared with an expected increase of 0.3% and October’s revised 0.2% gain. On the year, sales rose 0.3% which easily bettered the forecast 1.4% decline and 2.1% decline of the prior month.
The Office for National Statistics’ Darren Morgan said, “Retail sales grew strongly in November as heavy Black Friday discounting encouraged shoppers to spend. However, with the three-month trend continuing to fall and overall sales still below pre-pandemic levels, it’s still a challenging time for retailers.”
Growth of 2.3% in non-food store sales in November, following a 0.2% increase in October led the sectoral race, with food store sales adding 0.8% on the month. Falling fuel prices reportedly gave automotive fuel transactions a much-needed boost, growing 0.6%.
“In the latest month, household goods retailers, clothing shops and department stores all reported robust sales, with computer stores, sports equipment, toy shops and cosmetics stores particularly benefitting from the impact of their Black Friday promotions,” Morgan explained.
“Supermarket sales ticked up a little, but it was specialist food and drink stores that had a really strong November due to customers stocking up early for Christmas and spending more than we have traditionally seen at this time of year.”
Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club posited that household consumption would likely be boosted by a quicker-than-expected fallback in inflation and the prospect of interest rates being cut sooner and more significantly than had been expected. But he also warned that “the lagged impact of past interest rate rises, the freeze in tax thresholds, and the loss of energy support payments will limit real household disposable income growth next year.”
Underwhelming activity
Amended economic output figures for Q3 and previous quarters of 2023 were also released Friday morning. Statisticians said the GDP growth was estimated to have contracted by 0.1%, downwardly revised from the initial flat print. Q2 was also adjusted lower, to show no growth over the period versus a previous 0.2% increase.
ONS’s Morgan said, “The latest data from both our regular monthly business survey and VAT returns show the economy performed slightly less well in the last two quarters than our initial estimates. The broader picture, though, remains one of an economy that has been little changed over the last year.”
Bank rates in 2024
There has been much conjecture of late about the expected direction of the Bank of England rate path next year and beyond.
EY’s Beck proffered that the economy was likely to close 2023 on another weak note, but there was some hope for next year. “With inflation falling faster than expected and interest rates likely to be cut earlier and more significantly next year than many had anticipated, the portents for 2024 are improving.”
In a note, Oxford Economics said: “Though we expect the Monetary Policy Committee to adopt a more cautious approach than the data implies they should, we now expect the first rate cut to come in May. Our January forecast will assume at least 100bps worth of rate cuts next year, with the risks skewed towards more loosening.”
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- Positive surprise for shops as sales grow in November
- Heavy Black Friday discounting encouraged shoppers – ONS
- Economic headwinds could slow further growth, analysts warn
- UK economy performed slightly less well in Q2 and Q3
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
22 December 2023 | 10:30 GMT
London – Heavy discounting by retailers appeared to encourage spending in the run-up to Christmas despite revised figures that showed the UK’s economic output underperforming over previous quarters.
Headline retail sales increased 1.3% in the month to November, an outsized gain compared with the 0.4% estimate, and well above the upwardly revised flat print in October. Annually, sales also positively surprised, growing 0.1% versus the 1.3% predicted slide and the previous month’s adjusted 2.5% fall.
Excluding fuel, sales grew at a monthly rate of 1.3% compared with an expected increase of 0.3% and October’s revised 0.2% gain. On the year, sales rose 0.3% which easily bettered the forecast 1.4% decline and 2.1% decline of the prior month.
The Office for National Statistics’ Darren Morgan said, “Retail sales grew strongly in November as heavy Black Friday discounting encouraged shoppers to spend. However, with the three-month trend continuing to fall and overall sales still below pre-pandemic levels, it’s still a challenging time for retailers.”
Growth of 2.3% in non-food store sales in November, following a 0.2% increase in October led the sectoral race, with food store sales adding 0.8% on the month. Falling fuel prices reportedly gave automotive fuel transactions a much-needed boost, growing 0.6%.
“In the latest month, household goods retailers, clothing shops and department stores all reported robust sales, with computer stores, sports equipment, toy shops and cosmetics stores particularly benefitting from the impact of their Black Friday promotions,” Morgan explained.
“Supermarket sales ticked up a little, but it was specialist food and drink stores that had a really strong November due to customers stocking up early for Christmas and spending more than we have traditionally seen at this time of year.”
Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club posited that household consumption would likely be boosted by a quicker-than-expected fallback in inflation and the prospect of interest rates being cut sooner and more significantly than had been expected. But he also warned that “the lagged impact of past interest rate rises, the freeze in tax thresholds, and the loss of energy support payments will limit real household disposable income growth next year.”
Amended economic output figures for Q3 and previous quarters of 2023 were also released Friday morning. Statisticians said the GDP growth was estimated to have contracted by 0.1%, downwardly revised from the initial flat print. Q2 was also adjusted lower, to show no growth over the period versus a previous 0.2% increase.
ONS’s Morgan said, “The latest data from both our regular monthly business survey and VAT returns show the economy performed slightly less well in the last two quarters than our initial estimates. The broader picture, though, remains one of an economy that has been little changed over the last year.”
There has been much conjecture of late about the expected direction of the Bank of England rate path next year and beyond.
EY’s Beck proffered that the economy was likely to close 2023 on another weak note, but there was some hope for next year. “With inflation falling faster than expected and interest rates likely to be cut earlier and more significantly next year than many had anticipated, the portents for 2024 are improving.”
In a note, Oxford Economics said: “Though we expect the Monetary Policy Committee to adopt a more cautious approach than the data implies they should, we now expect the first rate cut to come in May. Our January forecast will assume at least 100bps worth of rate cuts next year, with the risks skewed towards more loosening.”