UK Retail Sales Stuck In The Doldrums Despite Hope Of February Uptick
- Headline retail sales forecast up 0.2% m/m
- Increasing optimism behind expected gains
- Cost of living set to mute underlying numbers
- Data due Friday at 07:00 GMT
By Selin Gücüm
LiveSquawk News
23 March 2023 | 15:00 GMT
LONDON -- UK retail sales are set for a second consecutive monthly gain in February albeit it at a slower pace than in the previous month.
The latest investor poll forecasts headline sales to rise 0.2% on the month, slowing from January’s 0.5%. Ex-auto fuel sales are expected to grow 0.2% on the month following a 0.4% increase in January.
Consumer spending is predicted to remain in the doldrums as the rising cost of living drags down real disposable income, which in turn is predicted to drop sales growth 4.7% on the year after January’s 5.1% decline.
Sentiment indicators offer hope
There has been an improvement in consumer confidence readings over the first two months of the year, rebounding from record low readings at the end of 2022.
“Renewed optimism in the survey data points to some marginal increase in household spending,” Deutsche Bank wrote. “BRC data, in particular, noted some lift in both food and non-food sales. Kantar data too showed some firming signs in food sales with take-home grocery sales increasing by 8.8% during February. Data from the CBI also showed an uplift, turning positive (in the year to February). Springboard footfall data also showed a near 10% m/m rise in traffic.”
The small upturn in sentiment follows on the heels of a prolonged period of contraction for retailers over the last couple of years. According to Oxford Economics, such optimistic data is expected to be part of the “normal month-to-month volatility in the series” that only temporally exits the trend.
“Also, sales in January were unexpectedly low,” it continued, “which leaves some scope for catch-up – even against the weak backdrop – particularly in the food and non-food sectors.”
“Real disposable income is falling, meaning many households are struggling to make ends meet.” Société General said in a note. “It, therefore, comes as no surprise to find that retail sales have fallen far below trend and are likely to struggle to make gains.”
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- Headline retail sales forecast up 0.2% m/m
- Increasing optimism behind expected gains
- Cost of living set to mute underlying numbers
- Data due Friday at 07:00 GMT
By Selin Gücüm
LiveSquawk News
23 March 2023 | 15:00 GMT
LONDON -- UK retail sales are set for a second consecutive monthly gain in February albeit it at a slower pace than in the previous month.
The latest investor poll forecasts headline sales to rise 0.2% on the month, slowing from January’s 0.5%. Ex-auto fuel sales are expected to grow 0.2% on the month following a 0.4% increase in January.
Consumer spending is predicted to remain in the doldrums as the rising cost of living drags down real disposable income, which in turn is predicted to drop sales growth 4.7% on the year after January’s 5.1% decline.
There has been an improvement in consumer confidence readings over the first two months of the year, rebounding from record low readings at the end of 2022.
“Renewed optimism in the survey data points to some marginal increase in household spending,” Deutsche Bank wrote. “BRC data, in particular, noted some lift in both food and non-food sales. Kantar data too showed some firming signs in food sales with take-home grocery sales increasing by 8.8% during February. Data from the CBI also showed an uplift, turning positive (in the year to February). Springboard footfall data also showed a near 10% m/m rise in traffic.”
The small upturn in sentiment follows on the heels of a prolonged period of contraction for retailers over the last couple of years. According to Oxford Economics, such optimistic data is expected to be part of the “normal month-to-month volatility in the series” that only temporally exits the trend.
“Also, sales in January were unexpectedly low,” it continued, “which leaves some scope for catch-up – even against the weak backdrop – particularly in the food and non-food sectors.”
“Real disposable income is falling, meaning many households are struggling to make ends meet.” Société General said in a note. “It, therefore, comes as no surprise to find that retail sales have fallen far below trend and are likely to struggle to make gains.”