UK Retail Sales Beat Masks Fragile Consumer Outlook
- Quarterly growth firm as households bring forward spending
- Fuel sales drive upside, raising questions over sustainability
- GfK confidence drops to -25, signalling weaker April demand
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
24 April 2026 | 11:30 GMT
LONDON – Britons appeared to be getting ahead of the current headwinds buffeting household budgets. Despite the prospect of rising utility bills stemming from the Middle East conflict, consumption remained robust over the first quarter.
The Office for National Statistics said headline retail sales rose 0.7% m/m in March, beating expectations for no growth. February’s reading was revised two-tenths lower to -0.6%. On an annual basis, sales increased 1.7%, ahead of the 1.1% forecast but slightly below a downwardly revised 1.8% prior.
Underlying sales also surprised to the upside. In the three months to March, sales improved 1.6% compared with the three months to December.
Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS, said commercial art galleries performed strongly earlier in the quarter, while beauty product retailers reported higher sales linked to new collections. “Motor fuel sales were up on the quarter, with retailers commenting that many motorists had been filling up their tanks in March following the start of conflict in the Middle East.”
The report added that clothing sales volumes rose, with retailers citing improved weather conditions. Online retailers also reported firm sales across the period.
Retail sales excluding automotive fuel climbed 0.2% m/m, modestly beating expectations for a flat reading and reversing February’s downwardly revised 0.6% decline. On the year, sales grew 1.7%, below the 2.0% forecast and well down from the revised 2.7% previously.
Falling confidence
Earlier in the day, April’s GfK consumer confidence index fell to -25 from -21, marking the largest monthly decline since October 2023.
Ashley Webb, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said the survey was consistent with a roughly 2.0% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in April, with annual growth likely to slow from 1.7% in March to around 0.0%.
He cautioned against reading too much into the headline retail figure, noting that much of the strength reflected a sharp rise in fuel sales as higher prices prompted motorists to bring forward purchases.
Compounding issues for policymakers
It has been a busy week for UK data. Labour market figures released earlier in the week pointed to further softening, with cooling pay growth, weaker headcount and a continued decline in vacancies.
A day later, the first inflation print since the outbreak of hostilities in the Gulf showed annual headline CPI rose 3.3% y/y in March. While broadly expected, economists estimate inflation could peak at around 4.0% by mid-year.
Oxford Economics said looser labour market conditions should limit second-round effects on inflation via wages. “We expect the Monetary Policy Committee to leave Bank Rate on hold at next week’s meeting.”
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- Quarterly growth firm as households bring forward spending
- Fuel sales drive upside, raising questions over sustainability
- GfK confidence drops to -25, signalling weaker April demand
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
24 April 2026 | 11:30 GMT
LONDON – Britons appeared to be getting ahead of the current headwinds buffeting household budgets. Despite the prospect of rising utility bills stemming from the Middle East conflict, consumption remained robust over the first quarter.
The Office for National Statistics said headline retail sales rose 0.7% m/m in March, beating expectations for no growth. February’s reading was revised two-tenths lower to -0.6%. On an annual basis, sales increased 1.7%, ahead of the 1.1% forecast but slightly below a downwardly revised 1.8% prior.
Underlying sales also surprised to the upside. In the three months to March, sales improved 1.6% compared with the three months to December.
Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS, said commercial art galleries performed strongly earlier in the quarter, while beauty product retailers reported higher sales linked to new collections. “Motor fuel sales were up on the quarter, with retailers commenting that many motorists had been filling up their tanks in March following the start of conflict in the Middle East.”
The report added that clothing sales volumes rose, with retailers citing improved weather conditions. Online retailers also reported firm sales across the period.
Retail sales excluding automotive fuel climbed 0.2% m/m, modestly beating expectations for a flat reading and reversing February’s downwardly revised 0.6% decline. On the year, sales grew 1.7%, below the 2.0% forecast and well down from the revised 2.7% previously.
Earlier in the day, April’s GfK consumer confidence index fell to -25 from -21, marking the largest monthly decline since October 2023.
Ashley Webb, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said the survey was consistent with a roughly 2.0% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in April, with annual growth likely to slow from 1.7% in March to around 0.0%.
He cautioned against reading too much into the headline retail figure, noting that much of the strength reflected a sharp rise in fuel sales as higher prices prompted motorists to bring forward purchases.
Compounding issues for policymakers
It has been a busy week for UK data. Labour market figures released earlier in the week pointed to further softening, with cooling pay growth, weaker headcount and a continued decline in vacancies.
A day later, the first inflation print since the outbreak of hostilities in the Gulf showed annual headline CPI rose 3.3% y/y in March. While broadly expected, economists estimate inflation could peak at around 4.0% by mid-year.
Oxford Economics said looser labour market conditions should limit second-round effects on inflation via wages. “We expect the Monetary Policy Committee to leave Bank Rate on hold at next week’s meeting.”