- Headline CPI forecast to rise to 4.0% y/y in September - Core inflation, services to remain sticky despite base effects - Policymakers underline need to keep policy restrictive
LONDON - UK inflation is expected to hit a near-term ceiling on Wednesday, just ahead of the Bank of England’s November policy decision and the Autumn Budget.
An analysts’ poll forecasts headline CPI to rise two tenths to 4.0% y/y in September, up from 3.8% previously and broadly in line with the BoE’s latest projection. On the month, prices are expected to ease to a 0.1% increase from 0.3%.
The annual core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, is projected to edge up to 3.7% from 3.6% in August. CPI services inflation is seen at 4.8% y/y, though analysts warn that base effects could push the measure lower. Conversely, favourable year-on-year factors may lift core goods and petrol price inflation.
Daiwa Capital Markets noted, “The BoE has long expected September to mark the peak of the UK’s recent inflation episode, principally since unfavourable base effects related to a steeper decline in petrol prices one year prior are due to add to the headline rate.”
BoE policymakers are unlikely to adopt a dovish tone on the back of price data alone. Daiwa analysts pointed to concerns among some MPC members over second-order effects on household expectations, adding, “…we also expect food price inflation to begin showing signs of stabilisation.”
Last week, Chief Economist Huw Pill reiterated that elevated inflation demands a cautious and measured approach, stressing that the persistence of underlying pressures “is becoming more pressing.” Fellow MPC member Catherine Mann struck a similarly hawkish note, arguing that restrictive policy remains the best way to “squeeze out” inflation and anchor expectations around the 2% target.
For the first time since its suspension in February, the Office for National Statistics will also publish producer price inflation figures, following improvements to data quality.
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- Headline CPI forecast to rise to 4.0% y/y in September
- Core inflation, services to remain sticky despite base effects
- Policymakers underline need to keep policy restrictive
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
21 October 2025 | 18:00 BST
LONDON - UK inflation is expected to hit a near-term ceiling on Wednesday, just ahead of the Bank of England’s November policy decision and the Autumn Budget.
An analysts’ poll forecasts headline CPI to rise two tenths to 4.0% y/y in September, up from 3.8% previously and broadly in line with the BoE’s latest projection. On the month, prices are expected to ease to a 0.1% increase from 0.3%.
The annual core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, is projected to edge up to 3.7% from 3.6% in August. CPI services inflation is seen at 4.8% y/y, though analysts warn that base effects could push the measure lower. Conversely, favourable year-on-year factors may lift core goods and petrol price inflation.
Daiwa Capital Markets noted, “The BoE has long expected September to mark the peak of the UK’s recent inflation episode, principally since unfavourable base effects related to a steeper decline in petrol prices one year prior are due to add to the headline rate.”
BoE policymakers are unlikely to adopt a dovish tone on the back of price data alone. Daiwa analysts pointed to concerns among some MPC members over second-order effects on household expectations, adding, “…we also expect food price inflation to begin showing signs of stabilisation.”
Last week, Chief Economist Huw Pill reiterated that elevated inflation demands a cautious and measured approach, stressing that the persistence of underlying pressures “is becoming more pressing.” Fellow MPC member Catherine Mann struck a similarly hawkish note, arguing that restrictive policy remains the best way to “squeeze out” inflation and anchor expectations around the 2% target.
For the first time since its suspension in February, the Office for National Statistics will also publish producer price inflation figures, following improvements to data quality.