LONDON -- Initial estimates put Britain’s economic activity on a positive footing at the start of the year. However, more evidence will be needed before households can truly celebrate.
On the month, the economy expanded 0.2% in January, matching forecasts and climbing from the 0.1% contraction seen in December. But in the three months to January, GDP shrank 0.1% versus the three months to October, which was in-line with consensus and better than in the 0.3% decline in the previous period.
The positive outturn was led by the country’s biggest drivers, 0.2% growth in services, which reversed the 0.1% fall last month, and an impressive 1.1% increase in construction output that rebounded following a 0.5% dip in December. Within the service sector, there was strong growth in retail and wholesaling. Partially offsetting the gains were falls in TV and film production, lawyers and the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry.
Overall production output fell 0.2% on the month and over the three months to January.
Analysts were optimistic about near-term prospects for the economy. Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said, “January's rise in UK GDP could mark the start of a sustained recovery. The EY ITEM Club thinks health output is likely to have recovered further in February when fewer working days were lost to industrial action, while business survey data has also been much stronger of late.”
Sustainable expansion
The forward-looking S&P Service PMI reading for February of 53.8 was slightly lower than January’s 54.3. Nonetheless, the research firm said the index was still higher than at any time in the second half of 2023. Moreover, the index has now posted above the crucial 50.0 no-change value for four months in a row, therefore highlighting a sustained rebound in business activity after last autumn's downturn.
Nomura’s George Buckley noted a sizeable range in expectations for economic growth this year and next, from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s rather optimistic (0.8%) assessment last week to the Bank of England’s relatively gloomy (0.25%) outlook at its February Monetary Policy Report.
“If trend growth is much weaker than in the past, then any given recovery in demand growth needs to be considered carefully as it could be more inflationary than in the past,” he posited. “It’s one reason why we think the Bank of England will be cautious, waiting until August to cut rates, and why there are risks to it doing less than the 125bp of cuts we expect.”
Tightening jobs market
On Tuesday, the ONS released the latest labour force survey, which showed payrolled employees in the UK rising by 15,000 (0.0%) between December 2023 and January 2024, and by 386,000 (1.3%) between January 2023 and January 2024.
ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said, “While the number of payrolled employees continues to increase, the rate of annual growth is decreasing. recent trends in the jobs market were continuing with earnings, in cash terms, growing more slowly than recently but, thanks to lower inflation, real terms pay continues to increase.”
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- Economy recovered ground in January
- Services and construction led the gain
- Underlying growth rate still underwater
- Outlook appears brighter - analysts
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@harrydaniels71
13 March 2024 | 11:00 GMT
LONDON -- Initial estimates put Britain’s economic activity on a positive footing at the start of the year. However, more evidence will be needed before households can truly celebrate.
On the month, the economy expanded 0.2% in January, matching forecasts and climbing from the 0.1% contraction seen in December. But in the three months to January, GDP shrank 0.1% versus the three months to October, which was in-line with consensus and better than in the 0.3% decline in the previous period.
The positive outturn was led by the country’s biggest drivers, 0.2% growth in services, which reversed the 0.1% fall last month, and an impressive 1.1% increase in construction output that rebounded following a 0.5% dip in December. Within the service sector, there was strong growth in retail and wholesaling. Partially offsetting the gains were falls in TV and film production, lawyers and the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry.
Overall production output fell 0.2% on the month and over the three months to January.
Analysts were optimistic about near-term prospects for the economy. Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said, “January's rise in UK GDP could mark the start of a sustained recovery. The EY ITEM Club thinks health output is likely to have recovered further in February when fewer working days were lost to industrial action, while business survey data has also been much stronger of late.”
The forward-looking S&P Service PMI reading for February of 53.8 was slightly lower than January’s 54.3. Nonetheless, the research firm said the index was still higher than at any time in the second half of 2023. Moreover, the index has now posted above the crucial 50.0 no-change value for four months in a row, therefore highlighting a sustained rebound in business activity after last autumn's downturn.
Nomura’s George Buckley noted a sizeable range in expectations for economic growth this year and next, from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s rather optimistic (0.8%) assessment last week to the Bank of England’s relatively gloomy (0.25%) outlook at its February Monetary Policy Report.
“If trend growth is much weaker than in the past, then any given recovery in demand growth needs to be considered carefully as it could be more inflationary than in the past,” he posited. “It’s one reason why we think the Bank of England will be cautious, waiting until August to cut rates, and why there are risks to it doing less than the 125bp of cuts we expect.”
On Tuesday, the ONS released the latest labour force survey, which showed payrolled employees in the UK rising by 15,000 (0.0%) between December 2023 and January 2024, and by 386,000 (1.3%) between January 2023 and January 2024.
ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said, “While the number of payrolled employees continues to increase, the rate of annual growth is decreasing. recent trends in the jobs market were continuing with earnings, in cash terms, growing more slowly than recently but, thanks to lower inflation, real terms pay continues to increase.”