- Services, construction drive growth as production slips - Weak start to Q2 as April contracts - BoE widely expected to hold rates steady next week - Rising energy costs seen intensifying slowdown risks
LONDON – Underlying UK economic activity remained resilient despite a contraction at the start of the second quarter.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed GDP grew 0.7% in the three months to April, a tenth stronger than the three months to March and in line with expectations. Statisticians said the bulk of that growth came in February and March.
On the month, the economy contracted 0.1% in April, matching forecasts and slowing from March’s 0.3% expansion.
ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said services output continued to drive growth, with notable strength in computer programming, marketing and wholesale trade over the three-month period. Construction also showed further signs of recovery after a weak winter.
Services output rose 0.8% in the three months to April, matching estimates, with gains recorded in 12 of the 14 subsectors. That matched the March pace and accelerated from 0.6% in February.
Construction expanded 1.6% over the same period, supported by both repair and maintenance work and new building activity.
Offsetting those gains, production output fell 0.1% in the three months to April. The decline was driven by a 2.4% drop in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, a 1.0% fall in water supply, sewerage and waste management, and a 0.8% contraction in mining and quarrying.
Those declines were partly offset by a 0.6% rise in manufacturing output.
BoE balancing act
After a relatively firm start to the year, attention now turns to whether momentum can be sustained.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets next week, with most analysts expecting Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%.
Fergus Jimenez-England, associate economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said weakening activity was beginning to show up in the official data, consistent with softer leading indicators in recent weeks.
Rate-setters will need to balance signs of slowing household demand against elevated near-term inflation expectations.
“We expect this slowdown to intensify as higher energy costs feed through the economy, with the impact likely to be felt most acutely in the third quarter as the energy price cap rises,” he said.
Rates markets are currently pricing roughly a 30% probability of a hike before year-end.
“While underlying activity has softened, the more pressing concern for the Bank will be sticky inflation, driven by elevated inflation expectations and persistent wage growth,” Jimenez-England added.
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- Services, construction drive growth as production slips
- Weak start to Q2 as April contracts
- BoE widely expected to hold rates steady next week
- Rising energy costs seen intensifying slowdown risks
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
16:00 GMT | 12 Jun 2026
LONDON – Underlying UK economic activity remained resilient despite a contraction at the start of the second quarter.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed GDP grew 0.7% in the three months to April, a tenth stronger than the three months to March and in line with expectations. Statisticians said the bulk of that growth came in February and March.
On the month, the economy contracted 0.1% in April, matching forecasts and slowing from March’s 0.3% expansion.
ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said services output continued to drive growth, with notable strength in computer programming, marketing and wholesale trade over the three-month period. Construction also showed further signs of recovery after a weak winter.
Services output rose 0.8% in the three months to April, matching estimates, with gains recorded in 12 of the 14 subsectors. That matched the March pace and accelerated from 0.6% in February.
Construction expanded 1.6% over the same period, supported by both repair and maintenance work and new building activity.
Offsetting those gains, production output fell 0.1% in the three months to April. The decline was driven by a 2.4% drop in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, a 1.0% fall in water supply, sewerage and waste management, and a 0.8% contraction in mining and quarrying.
Those declines were partly offset by a 0.6% rise in manufacturing output.
After a relatively firm start to the year, attention now turns to whether momentum can be sustained.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets next week, with most analysts expecting Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%.
Fergus Jimenez-England, associate economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said weakening activity was beginning to show up in the official data, consistent with softer leading indicators in recent weeks.
Rate-setters will need to balance signs of slowing household demand against elevated near-term inflation expectations.
“We expect this slowdown to intensify as higher energy costs feed through the economy, with the impact likely to be felt most acutely in the third quarter as the energy price cap rises,” he said.
Rates markets are currently pricing roughly a 30% probability of a hike before year-end.
“While underlying activity has softened, the more pressing concern for the Bank will be sticky inflation, driven by elevated inflation expectations and persistent wage growth,” Jimenez-England added.