LONDON - Just like the British summer, the economy appears hard to predict as second quarter data surprised to the upside.
Economic activity in the three months to June expanded 0.2%, outperforming the flat median estimate and the previous quarter's upwardly revised 0.1%. On the month, the economy grew 0.5%, again better than the 0.2% forecast and last month’s 0.1% contraction.
The Office for National Statistics said manufacturing experienced a particularly strong month, with both cars and the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry posting particularly buoyant growth. Business for construction, pubs, and restaurants also strongly improved thanks to the hot weather.
Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said, “Services also had a strong month with publishing and car sales and legal services all doing well, though this was partially offset by falls in health, which was hit by further strike action.
“Across the quarter as a whole, GDP grew a little with widespread growth across manufacturing – aided by falling raw material prices – computer programming and hospitality.”
Crowning glory
The quarter was beset by events connected to the crowning of the King. Statisticians reported that a range of businesses cited the additional bank holiday in May as a reason for increased output in June compared with May.
Encouragingly, spending appeared robust, with growth in household and government expenditures partially offset by a fall in international trade flows in the second quarter. Officials said the stronger rise in consumption coincided with a slowing of inflation growth.
Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said, “The fact that GDP rose in June wasn’t much of a surprise, given the number of working days returned to normal following the extra public holiday in May. However, growth of 0.5% month-on-month was much better than the consensus.”
Momentum runs into Q3
In last week’s monetary policy report, the Bank of England noted that underlying quarterly GDP growth has been around 0.2% during the first half of this year. “Bank staff expect a similar growth rate in the near term, reflecting more resilient household income and retail sales volumes, and most business surveys over recent months.”
EY ITEM’s Beck predicted the economy will enjoy a bit more momentum in Q3, with normalcy to workdays and a steady fall in inflation as energy bills fell in July for the first time in almost three years and ease financial strains on households and businesses.
“On balance, the EY ITEM Club thinks the upsides facing the economy, plus offsets to the impact of higher rates on borrowers, including higher interest income for savers, mean the economy should continue to grow,” Beck noted. “But it will probably be well into 2024 before that growth breaks out of the sluggish holding pattern of the last year or so.”
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data_array.logs = data.logs;
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postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
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session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
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var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
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data_array.date = current_time;
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data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
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- Monthly and quarterly GDP growth surprises to the upside
- Better weather trumps King’s Coronation disruption
- Strong manufacturing and construction raise boost output
- Economic momentum expected to aid Q3
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
11 August 2023|10.30 GMT
LONDON - Just like the British summer, the economy appears hard to predict as second quarter data surprised to the upside.
Economic activity in the three months to June expanded 0.2%, outperforming the flat median estimate and the previous quarter's upwardly revised 0.1%. On the month, the economy grew 0.5%, again better than the 0.2% forecast and last month’s 0.1% contraction.
The Office for National Statistics said manufacturing experienced a particularly strong month, with both cars and the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry posting particularly buoyant growth. Business for construction, pubs, and restaurants also strongly improved thanks to the hot weather.
Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said, “Services also had a strong month with publishing and car sales and legal services all doing well, though this was partially offset by falls in health, which was hit by further strike action.
“Across the quarter as a whole, GDP grew a little with widespread growth across manufacturing – aided by falling raw material prices – computer programming and hospitality.”
The quarter was beset by events connected to the crowning of the King. Statisticians reported that a range of businesses cited the additional bank holiday in May as a reason for increased output in June compared with May.
Encouragingly, spending appeared robust, with growth in household and government expenditures partially offset by a fall in international trade flows in the second quarter. Officials said the stronger rise in consumption coincided with a slowing of inflation growth.
Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said, “The fact that GDP rose in June wasn’t much of a surprise, given the number of working days returned to normal following the extra public holiday in May. However, growth of 0.5% month-on-month was much better than the consensus.”
In last week’s monetary policy report, the Bank of England noted that underlying quarterly GDP growth has been around 0.2% during the first half of this year. “Bank staff expect a similar growth rate in the near term, reflecting more resilient household income and retail sales volumes, and most business surveys over recent months.”
EY ITEM’s Beck predicted the economy will enjoy a bit more momentum in Q3, with normalcy to workdays and a steady fall in inflation as energy bills fell in July for the first time in almost three years and ease financial strains on households and businesses.
“On balance, the EY ITEM Club thinks the upsides facing the economy, plus offsets to the impact of higher rates on borrowers, including higher interest income for savers, mean the economy should continue to grow,” Beck noted. “But it will probably be well into 2024 before that growth breaks out of the sluggish holding pattern of the last year or so.”