UK Autumn Statement Preview 2025: Gilt Remit Estimates
- Reeves Faces GBP 20–30bn Fiscal Gap Amid Pledges to Protect Workers - OBR To Deliver Updated Growth, Inflation And Labour Market Projections - Borrowing Seen Rising Next Year As Treasury Prepares Revised Gilt Remit - Banks Expect Only Modest Increases In Issuance But Diverge On Scale - Announcement due approximately 12:30 GMT
London – Fiscal consolidation is the watchword heading into Wednesday’s Autumn Budget.
The long-awaited and heavily trailed statement from Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, is expected to reaffirm Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase the tax burden on working households.
Reports last week suggested Reeves had rejected the idea of raising income tax following better-than-expected fiscal projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Economists estimate a fiscal shortfall of GBP 20–30bn. Analysts say Reeves effectively has three options:
#1 Borrow more by loosening fiscal rules #2 Reduce spending #3 Raise taxes
Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja said the bulk of the Chancellor’s consolidation is likely to come from extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds. “We also expect the Chancellor to push through a medley of tax rises (GBP ~30bn) targeting wealth (dividends, capital gains tax, etc.), expanding the National Insurance Contributions base, and a slew of sector-specific taxes. Higher taxation on housing (council/mansion tax) will also likely feature in the Budget,” he said.
Société Générale has outlined the measures it considers most likely for the Treasury to adopt.
Updated economic forecasts
Source: Societe Generale
The Budget will include updated fiscal and economic projections from the OBR.
In the Spring, the watchdog halved its real GDP growth forecast to 1.0% this year. It expects CPI inflation to rise to 3.2% in 2025.
On the labour market, the OBR forecast the unemployment rate would peak at 4.5% (1.6 million people) in 2025 as spare capacity opens up, before easing to its structural rate of 4.1% in 2028.
Jack Meaning at Barclays said recent activity and labour market data were consistent with his bank’s view that the economy is slowing. “Inflation decelerated in October, broadly as expected, but updated energy prices lead us to raise our near-term CPI forecast. Ahead of the Budget, our public-sector net borrowing forecast for 2025/26 remains on track.”
Borrowing and gilt remit
Borrowing is expected to rise next year but remain on a downward trajectory overall, falling to around 2% of GDP by the end of the forecast horizon from roughly 4.25% this year.
Each year, HM Treasury sets a financing remit for the Debt Management Office (DMO) covering planned gilt sales and the split between index-linked and conventional gilts, including their maturity distribution. The remit is usually revised in November or December alongside updated public-finance projections.
Source: DMO
Bank forecasts
- Daiwa expects only a modest increase in gilt issuance from the current remit of GBP 299.1bn, maintaining a bias towards short- and medium-dated supply, with the super-long sector still under strain.
- Deutsche Bank predicts an increase in the gross financing remit, forecasting GBP 12.5bn more than the OBR’s current projection for 2025/26.
- Société Générale estimates the FY25 remit may be revised up by about GBP 15bn.
- Nomura anticipates additional issuance of around GBP 6bn this fiscal year, taking the total to roughly GBP 305bn.
- Barclays sees a modest increase in the 2025/26 borrowing requirement of GBP 8.6bn to GBP 307.7bn.
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- Reeves Faces GBP 20–30bn Fiscal Gap Amid Pledges to Protect Workers
- OBR To Deliver Updated Growth, Inflation And Labour Market Projections
- Borrowing Seen Rising Next Year As Treasury Prepares Revised Gilt Remit
- Banks Expect Only Modest Increases In Issuance But Diverge On Scale
- Announcement due approximately 12:30 GMT
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
25 November 2025 | 14:20 GMT
London – Fiscal consolidation is the watchword heading into Wednesday’s Autumn Budget.
The long-awaited and heavily trailed statement from Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, is expected to reaffirm Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase the tax burden on working households.
Reports last week suggested Reeves had rejected the idea of raising income tax following better-than-expected fiscal projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Economists estimate a fiscal shortfall of GBP 20–30bn. Analysts say Reeves effectively has three options:
#1 Borrow more by loosening fiscal rules
#2 Reduce spending
#3 Raise taxes
Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja said the bulk of the Chancellor’s consolidation is likely to come from extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds. “We also expect the Chancellor to push through a medley of tax rises (GBP ~30bn) targeting wealth (dividends, capital gains tax, etc.), expanding the National Insurance Contributions base, and a slew of sector-specific taxes. Higher taxation on housing (council/mansion tax) will also likely feature in the Budget,” he said.
Société Générale has outlined the measures it considers most likely for the Treasury to adopt.
The Budget will include updated fiscal and economic projections from the OBR.
In the Spring, the watchdog halved its real GDP growth forecast to 1.0% this year. It expects CPI inflation to rise to 3.2% in 2025.
On the labour market, the OBR forecast the unemployment rate would peak at 4.5% (1.6 million people) in 2025 as spare capacity opens up, before easing to its structural rate of 4.1% in 2028.
Jack Meaning at Barclays said recent activity and labour market data were consistent with his bank’s view that the economy is slowing. “Inflation decelerated in October, broadly as expected, but updated energy prices lead us to raise our near-term CPI forecast. Ahead of the Budget, our public-sector net borrowing forecast for 2025/26 remains on track.”
Borrowing is expected to rise next year but remain on a downward trajectory overall, falling to around 2% of GDP by the end of the forecast horizon from roughly 4.25% this year.
Each year, HM Treasury sets a financing remit for the Debt Management Office (DMO) covering planned gilt sales and the split between index-linked and conventional gilts, including their maturity distribution. The remit is usually revised in November or December alongside updated public-finance projections.
Bank forecasts
- Daiwa expects only a modest increase in gilt issuance from the current remit of GBP 299.1bn, maintaining a bias towards short- and medium-dated supply, with the super-long sector still under strain.
- Deutsche Bank predicts an increase in the gross financing remit, forecasting GBP 12.5bn more than the OBR’s current projection for 2025/26.
- Société Générale estimates the FY25 remit may be revised up by about GBP 15bn.
- Nomura anticipates additional issuance of around GBP 6bn this fiscal year, taking the total to roughly GBP 305bn.
- Barclays sees a modest increase in the 2025/26 borrowing requirement of GBP 8.6bn to GBP 307.7bn.