Sticky US Inflation And Waller Comments Brings Half-Point Rate Rise Into Play
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socket.send(JSON.stringify({
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publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel,
username: data.username,
subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group,
display_name: data.display_name,
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php_session_id: data.php_session_id,
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postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
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var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
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- Core inflation remains stubborn as services pressures persist
- Government shutdown leaves gap in annual CPI data
- Waller raises prospect of a 50bp December hike
- Treasury yields climb as traders price in further tightening
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
20:00 GMT | 10 November 2026
US inflation rose more than expected in October, with both headline and core consumer prices exceeding forecasts, seemingly cementing expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed headline CPI increased 0.4% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis, a tenth of a percentage point above estimates but slower than September’s 0.6% rise.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% m/m, also a tenth stronger than forecast and matching September’s increase.
Breaking down the figures, the BLS said shelter costs rose 0.3%, accounting for more than a third of the overall monthly increase. Food prices climbed 0.5%, with food at home up 0.4% and food away from home rising 0.5%.
There was a modest slowdown in so-called super-core inflation, which measures core services excluding housing. The gauge rose 0.4% on the month, easing from September’s 0.423% increase.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Gapen said the main surprise was the lack of progress in services inflation, particularly stubborn owners’ equivalent rent (OER) and persistent price pressures in core services excluding housing.
“OER decelerated less than expected, motor vehicle insurance accelerated, and core services ex-housing remained firm despite softer airfares,” the economist noted.
“Core goods also came in above our forecast, driven in part by stronger new vehicle and recreation commodities inflation, a component that is sensitive to energy and metals price pressures.”
In an accompanying note, the BLS said it had been unable to collect survey data for October 2025 because of the government shutdown at the time.
Consequently, the bureau was unable to publish 12-month percentage changes for October 2026 for indices where year-earlier data were unavailable.
Following the release, US Treasury prices fell and yields rose as traders increased their bets on a December rate hike. Expectations of further tightening had already been heightened by comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller earlier in the day.
Speaking ahead of the inflation report, Waller outlined his assessment of the economy, inflation and monetary policy, explaining why he had voted to leave interest rates unchanged at the October meeting.
He argued that communication about the likely path of policy tightening had already prompted financial markets to price in some of the anticipated increase in borrowing costs.
Turning to inflation, Waller said price pressures remained well above the Fed’s 2% target and were now the primary focus of his attention.
Highlighting the breadth of those pressures, he noted that more than 70% of core PCE services components were increasing at an annualised rate above 3%, suggesting inflation remained uncomfortably broad-based and persistent.
Waller went further, raising the possibility of a larger move at the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year.
“…if the October CPI inflation data out later today are similar to the past two monthly readings—with core CPI inflation around 0.3% or even higher—then a stronger policy move may be needed. In that case, I believe a 50-basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting.”
Reacting to both Waller’s remarks and the inflation figures, TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz said a 50bp increase should now be on the table.
However, the bank stopped short of changing its central forecast, preferring to await further economic data and comments from Fed officials.
“We will wait for Friday's Oct PPI report and additional Fedspeak this week to reassess our view. We still favour a 25bps rate hike in December with strong guidance toward an additional Jan increase.”