Policymakers at the Swiss National Bank are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with analysts seeing little prospect of a move well into next year, at the earliest.
An economists’ poll predicts the SNB to leave its policy rate at zero in what should be a relatively straightforward decision.
Economic data since the previous meeting have generally strengthened, with GDP growth accelerating to 1.5% q/q in the second quarter from 0.5% in Q1.
At its June meeting, the SNB said its baseline scenario assumed global inflation would remain elevated over the coming quarters because of higher raw material prices. Headline inflation has since firmed, unsurprisingly given the renewed conflict in the Middle East, but underlying price pressures remain stable and are unlikely to be a major concern for Swiss policymakers at this stage.
The SNB is also expected to reiterate that its outlook remains highly uncertain and heavily dependent on developments in the Gulf.
Franc Loses Some Haven Appeal
At the start of the Gulf crisis, strong safe-haven flows into the Swiss franc pushed the currency sharply higher. The SNB subsequently took the opportunity to intervene in the foreign-exchange market.
Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, noted that the franc's safe-haven appeal has since diminished.
“Indeed, given that Swiss CPI inflation is low and that there is no perceived imminent risk of an SNB rate hike, the focus is changing to whether the CHF can step into the JPY’s shoes as a funding currency for carry trades,” she said.
Hawkish pivots all round
Major central banks have stepped up their hawkish rhetoric and actions in recent weeks.
Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, in line with expectations, while the odds of another increase before year-end have risen.
A day later, the Bank of England voted 6-3 to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, but struck a noticeably more hawkish tone, modifying its guidance to say that “risks to the inflation outlook were tilted further to the upside” compared with the previous meeting.
The European Central Bank had raised its key rates by 25 basis points a week earlier, citing continued inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.
ECB moves put SNB outlook in focus
Nomura analysts noted that historically the ECB and SNB have often raised and lowered policy rates at broadly similar times.
“Therefore, the two ECB policy rate rises in 2026 so far, and two more we expect by March 2027 (markets are pricing in two to three more hikes by March) could strengthen the argument for the SNB to raise rates.”
For now, however, the base case among many central-bank watchers is for the SNB to remain on hold until at least the end of next year.
“If inflation sustainably rises to 1% or higher (i.e. around the middle of the SNB’s inflation target of 0-2%), we believe policymakers may discuss the need to raise rates in 2028,” Nomura said.
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- Core inflation remains benign
- Franc loses some haven appeal
- ECB tightening raises longer-term questions
- Thursday’s decision set for 07:30 GMT / 09:30 CET
- Press conference scheduled for 08:00 GMT / 10 CET
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
18:00 GMT | 23 September 2026
Policymakers at the Swiss National Bank are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with analysts seeing little prospect of a move well into next year, at the earliest.
An economists’ poll predicts the SNB to leave its policy rate at zero in what should be a relatively straightforward decision.
Economic data since the previous meeting have generally strengthened, with GDP growth accelerating to 1.5% q/q in the second quarter from 0.5% in Q1.
At its June meeting, the SNB said its baseline scenario assumed global inflation would remain elevated over the coming quarters because of higher raw material prices. Headline inflation has since firmed, unsurprisingly given the renewed conflict in the Middle East, but underlying price pressures remain stable and are unlikely to be a major concern for Swiss policymakers at this stage.
The SNB is also expected to reiterate that its outlook remains highly uncertain and heavily dependent on developments in the Gulf.
At the start of the Gulf crisis, strong safe-haven flows into the Swiss franc pushed the currency sharply higher. The SNB subsequently took the opportunity to intervene in the foreign-exchange market.
Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, noted that the franc's safe-haven appeal has since diminished.
“Indeed, given that Swiss CPI inflation is low and that there is no perceived imminent risk of an SNB rate hike, the focus is changing to whether the CHF can step into the JPY’s shoes as a funding currency for carry trades,” she said.
Major central banks have stepped up their hawkish rhetoric and actions in recent weeks.
Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, in line with expectations, while the odds of another increase before year-end have risen.
A day later, the Bank of England voted 6-3 to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, but struck a noticeably more hawkish tone, modifying its guidance to say that “risks to the inflation outlook were tilted further to the upside” compared with the previous meeting.
The European Central Bank had raised its key rates by 25 basis points a week earlier, citing continued inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.
Nomura analysts noted that historically the ECB and SNB have often raised and lowered policy rates at broadly similar times.
“Therefore, the two ECB policy rate rises in 2026 so far, and two more we expect by March 2027 (markets are pricing in two to three more hikes by March) could strengthen the argument for the SNB to raise rates.”
For now, however, the base case among many central-bank watchers is for the SNB to remain on hold until at least the end of next year.
“If inflation sustainably rises to 1% or higher (i.e. around the middle of the SNB’s inflation target of 0-2%), we believe policymakers may discuss the need to raise rates in 2028,” Nomura said.