SNB Likely To Hold Rates Ahead Of US-Iran Peace Deal
Hotels along the Lake Geneva shoreline. (Photo: Culp)
- Inflation still below 1%
- Franc weakens
- Poll sees rates at current levels all year
- Thursday’s decision set for 07:30 GMT / 09:30 CET
- Press conference scheduled for 08:00 GMT / 10 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
16 June 2026 | 15:00 GMT
Swiss central bankers are widely expected to keep key interest rates at current levels Thursday, a policy they are likely to maintain for the rest of the year, according to analysts.
An economists’ poll predicted an unchanged Swiss National Bank policy rate of zero percent, with a hold this month mirroring decisions in September, December, and March, which followed six straight cuts.
A decision to leave the benchmark rate at its current level would also come on the tails of last week’s change in the neighboring euro area: blaming surging inflation from the Iran war, the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in a move that was widely expected.
Nomura said it was part of the overwhelming consensus expecting Swiss central bankers to forego any changes at their latest quarterly meeting this week. “Inflation has accelerated, driven higher by energy prices, but core inflation remains low. A key question is whether the SNB will repeat its wording from the last meeting that its ‘willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased’ as opposed to the more typical statement that it ‘remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.’”
In the sweet spot
Upward pressure on the currency has eased of late. EUR/CHF was trading around 0.92 on Monday, about a cent higher than ahead of the US and Israeli attack on Iran at the end of February. USD/CHF was up some two cents from just prior to the start of the war.
Swiss households have faced higher costs since the beginning of the conflict, but the acceleration in price growth has been minimal when compared to most of Europe. Annual headline inflation last month matched April’s rate of 0.6%, well within the SNB’s target range of 0-2%. This compared to 0.1% back in February before the US and Israel attacked Iran, showing that the war has also boosted consumer prices in Switzerland, leaving policymakers in a good place – a few months ago, some observers were talking about the bank possibly reducing interest rates due to low inflation.
“Higher global energy prices have added upward inflation pressure, which likely reduces any urgency to discuss lowering the policy rate into negative territory to prevent deflation,” Nomura explained. “The low rate of inflation also limits the need for a higher policy rate any time soon.”
And with the US and Iran scheduled to sign a peace agreement in Geneva on Friday, pressure on prices and the Swiss currency is likely to dissipate.
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- Inflation still below 1%
- Franc weakens
- Poll sees rates at current levels all year
- Thursday’s decision set for 07:30 GMT / 09:30 CET
- Press conference scheduled for 08:00 GMT / 10 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
16 June 2026 | 15:00 GMT
Swiss central bankers are widely expected to keep key interest rates at current levels Thursday, a policy they are likely to maintain for the rest of the year, according to analysts.
An economists’ poll predicted an unchanged Swiss National Bank policy rate of zero percent, with a hold this month mirroring decisions in September, December, and March, which followed six straight cuts.
A decision to leave the benchmark rate at its current level would also come on the tails of last week’s change in the neighboring euro area: blaming surging inflation from the Iran war, the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in a move that was widely expected.
Nomura said it was part of the overwhelming consensus expecting Swiss central bankers to forego any changes at their latest quarterly meeting this week. “Inflation has accelerated, driven higher by energy prices, but core inflation remains low. A key question is whether the SNB will repeat its wording from the last meeting that its ‘willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased’ as opposed to the more typical statement that it ‘remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.’”
In the sweet spot
Upward pressure on the currency has eased of late. EUR/CHF was trading around 0.92 on Monday, about a cent higher than ahead of the US and Israeli attack on Iran at the end of February. USD/CHF was up some two cents from just prior to the start of the war.
Swiss households have faced higher costs since the beginning of the conflict, but the acceleration in price growth has been minimal when compared to most of Europe. Annual headline inflation last month matched April’s rate of 0.6%, well within the SNB’s target range of 0-2%. This compared to 0.1% back in February before the US and Israel attacked Iran, showing that the war has also boosted consumer prices in Switzerland, leaving policymakers in a good place – a few months ago, some observers were talking about the bank possibly reducing interest rates due to low inflation.
“Higher global energy prices have added upward inflation pressure, which likely reduces any urgency to discuss lowering the policy rate into negative territory to prevent deflation,” Nomura explained. “The low rate of inflation also limits the need for a higher policy rate any time soon.”
And with the US and Iran scheduled to sign a peace agreement in Geneva on Friday, pressure on prices and the Swiss currency is likely to dissipate.
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