Watercolour Sketch of the Board Room - c.1964 (Source: RBA Museum)
- Fourth rise of the year expected on Tuesday - Governor Bullock keeps focus firmly on inflation - Markets eye November for possible follow-up - Rate announcement due at 14:30 AEST/ 01:30 GMT
With upside risks to inflation increasingly materialising, Australian central bankers are expected to step up the pace of tightening and raise rates again on Tuesday.
In what would be the fourth increase this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board is widely expected to vote unanimously for a 25 basis point hike in the cash rate to 4.60%.
The decision itself appears largely priced in, leaving the accompanying guidance and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference as the focus for investors. Recent comments from the RBA chief have already helped shape expectations for both this meeting and the policy outlook beyond September.
Speaking at a fireside chat hosted by the Committee for Economic Development of Australia, Bullock said the economy was navigating a series of severe supply-side shocks, including geopolitical conflict, trade tariffs and climate change, making the task of controlling inflation more difficult than during a conventional demand-driven cycle.
“While inflation rate increases are slowing, price levels remain permanently higher,” Bullock said. “The RBA’s primary goal is keeping monetary policy set to anchor inflation expectations and prevent secondary inflationary effects.”
On employment, she added that the labour market would need to cool further if inflation was to return sustainably to the RBA’s 2–3% target band.
Markets are currently pricing around a 50% chance of a further rate increase in November, underlining expectations that Tuesday’s move may not mark the end of the tightening cycle.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia has also brought forward its call for another hike.
“We changed our RBA call this week and now expect the Monetary Policy Board to hike the cash rate […] on Tuesday,” CBA analysts said.
The bank had previously expected the next increase in November, when the full quarterly CPI report would provide confirmation that upside inflation risks had materialised. However, it said developments in recent weeks — including higher oil prices, the shift in market pricing and increasingly inflation-focused RBA communication — had prompted it to bring forward its forecast to September.
“We expect continued hawkish language being used in the post-meeting statement and press conference given the inflation backdrop,” CBA added.
Major central banks have shifted to a hawkish stance since the summer, highlighted by the US Federal Reserve's rate hike in mid-September. However, having front-loaded its tightening cycle early on, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely nearer to the end of its current sequence of moves than its global counterparts.
Nonetheless, should this week’s CPI report continue to run hot, the probability of a further move in November remains in play.
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- Fourth rise of the year expected on Tuesday
- Governor Bullock keeps focus firmly on inflation
- Markets eye November for possible follow-up
- Rate announcement due at 14:30 AEST/ 01:30 GMT
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
18:00 GMT | 28 September 2026
With upside risks to inflation increasingly materialising, Australian central bankers are expected to step up the pace of tightening and raise rates again on Tuesday.
In what would be the fourth increase this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board is widely expected to vote unanimously for a 25 basis point hike in the cash rate to 4.60%.
The decision itself appears largely priced in, leaving the accompanying guidance and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference as the focus for investors. Recent comments from the RBA chief have already helped shape expectations for both this meeting and the policy outlook beyond September.
Speaking at a fireside chat hosted by the Committee for Economic Development of Australia, Bullock said the economy was navigating a series of severe supply-side shocks, including geopolitical conflict, trade tariffs and climate change, making the task of controlling inflation more difficult than during a conventional demand-driven cycle.
“While inflation rate increases are slowing, price levels remain permanently higher,” Bullock said. “The RBA’s primary goal is keeping monetary policy set to anchor inflation expectations and prevent secondary inflationary effects.”
On employment, she added that the labour market would need to cool further if inflation was to return sustainably to the RBA’s 2–3% target band.
Markets are currently pricing around a 50% chance of a further rate increase in November, underlining expectations that Tuesday’s move may not mark the end of the tightening cycle.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia has also brought forward its call for another hike.
“We changed our RBA call this week and now expect the Monetary Policy Board to hike the cash rate […] on Tuesday,” CBA analysts said.
The bank had previously expected the next increase in November, when the full quarterly CPI report would provide confirmation that upside inflation risks had materialised. However, it said developments in recent weeks — including higher oil prices, the shift in market pricing and increasingly inflation-focused RBA communication — had prompted it to bring forward its forecast to September.
“We expect continued hawkish language being used in the post-meeting statement and press conference given the inflation backdrop,” CBA added.
Major central banks have shifted to a hawkish stance since the summer, highlighted by the US Federal Reserve's rate hike in mid-September. However, having front-loaded its tightening cycle early on, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely nearer to the end of its current sequence of moves than its global counterparts.
Nonetheless, should this week’s CPI report continue to run hot, the probability of a further move in November remains in play.