Makerfield By-Election Could Reshape Labour’s Leadership Battle
- Burnham bids for Westminster return amid leadership speculation - Reform targets upset, but vote split could favour Labour - Result due early Friday
By Harry Daniels/Evie Cummins LiveSquawk News
19:00 GMT | 17 Jun 2026
LONDON – The Makerfield by-election takes place this Thursday, with the result expected in the early hours of Friday morning. The contest could prove one of the most consequential in recent British political history.
Josh Simons stepped down to give Andy Burnham a route back to Parliament after leaving Westminster in 2016. Should Burnham win, he is widely expected to emerge as a potential challenger to Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The Candidates
Electoral Calculus
Fourteen candidates are standing, including Burnham for Labour, Robert Kenyon for Reform, and Rebecca Shepherd for Restore.
Burnham has focused heavily on his northern roots, arguing that Labour “needs a stronger northern voice.” He has said little about what a government under his leadership might look like, though previous proposals, including cuts to business rates for pubs and family-run firms, have raised questions over how his agenda would translate nationally.
At the G7 summit this week, Starmer said an immediate leadership challenge from Burnham would be “a bad thing” for the country, while suggesting he could offer him a Cabinet post — an offer that The Telegraph reports Burnham has rejected.
Kenyon has been more explicit about his priorities, outlining six pledges for Makerfield in comments to the BBC. Like Burnham, he has leaned on his northern identity, describing himself as “a local lad who’s sick of seeing our area neglected by Labour for decades.”
His proposals include building a new hospital in Wigan, regenerating high streets, and deporting illegal immigrants. However, the right-wing vote remains split between Reform and Restore, a dynamic that could ultimately benefit Labour. Kenyon’s campaign has also faced renewed scrutiny over previous online controversies.
Polling remains mixed, though most surveys put Labour narrowly ahead. A late-May Survation poll showed Labour leading by three points (43% to 40%), while a more recent Convergent poll put the gap at 12 points (49% to 37%). Prediction market Polymarket currently assigns Labour a 75% probability of victory, compared with 26% for Reform. Burnham remains the favourite, though the race is not yet settled.
Burnham’s Path to Downing Street
A Makerfield victory would mark only the first step in what could be a long and uncertain path to the premiership.
Political analysts have suggested Burnham could move quickly to challenge Starmer if he returns to Parliament. Under Labour Party rules, he would require nominations from 20% of Labour MPs — currently 81 — to trigger a formal leadership contest.
If that threshold is reached, Starmer could choose to resign immediately or contest the challenge. Labour MPs would then vote in successive rounds until one candidate secured more than half of the vote.
The path, however, is far from straightforward. Burnham would need to judge the timing carefully, while rival Labour figures could also enter the race. A victory in Makerfield would also trigger a separate mayoral contest in Greater Manchester, likely in early August, a role Starmer has urged him to prioritise.
Timings
Polling takes place on Thursday, 18 June, from 07:00 to 22:00 BST, with counting beginning immediately after polls close.
Recent by-elections suggest a declaration in the early hours. Gorton and Denton, held on 26 February, declared at 04:30 the following morning, while Runcorn and Helsby, held on 1 May, declared at 03:00 the next day. Based on that pattern, Makerfield is likely to declare between 03:00 and 05:00 BST on Friday.
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- Burnham bids for Westminster return amid leadership speculation
- Reform targets upset, but vote split could favour Labour
- Result due early Friday
By Harry Daniels/Evie Cummins
LiveSquawk News
19:00 GMT | 17 Jun 2026
LONDON – The Makerfield by-election takes place this Thursday, with the result expected in the early hours of Friday morning. The contest could prove one of the most consequential in recent British political history.
Josh Simons stepped down to give Andy Burnham a route back to Parliament after leaving Westminster in 2016. Should Burnham win, he is widely expected to emerge as a potential challenger to Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Fourteen candidates are standing, including Burnham for Labour, Robert Kenyon for Reform, and Rebecca Shepherd for Restore.
Burnham has focused heavily on his northern roots, arguing that Labour “needs a stronger northern voice.” He has said little about what a government under his leadership might look like, though previous proposals, including cuts to business rates for pubs and family-run firms, have raised questions over how his agenda would translate nationally.
At the G7 summit this week, Starmer said an immediate leadership challenge from Burnham would be “a bad thing” for the country, while suggesting he could offer him a Cabinet post — an offer that The Telegraph reports Burnham has rejected.
Kenyon has been more explicit about his priorities, outlining six pledges for Makerfield in comments to the BBC. Like Burnham, he has leaned on his northern identity, describing himself as “a local lad who’s sick of seeing our area neglected by Labour for decades.”
His proposals include building a new hospital in Wigan, regenerating high streets, and deporting illegal immigrants. However, the right-wing vote remains split between Reform and Restore, a dynamic that could ultimately benefit Labour. Kenyon’s campaign has also faced renewed scrutiny over previous online controversies.
Polling remains mixed, though most surveys put Labour narrowly ahead. A late-May Survation poll showed Labour leading by three points (43% to 40%), while a more recent Convergent poll put the gap at 12 points (49% to 37%). Prediction market Polymarket currently assigns Labour a 75% probability of victory, compared with 26% for Reform. Burnham remains the favourite, though the race is not yet settled.
A Makerfield victory would mark only the first step in what could be a long and uncertain path to the premiership.
Political analysts have suggested Burnham could move quickly to challenge Starmer if he returns to Parliament. Under Labour Party rules, he would require nominations from 20% of Labour MPs — currently 81 — to trigger a formal leadership contest.
If that threshold is reached, Starmer could choose to resign immediately or contest the challenge. Labour MPs would then vote in successive rounds until one candidate secured more than half of the vote.
The path, however, is far from straightforward. Burnham would need to judge the timing carefully, while rival Labour figures could also enter the race. A victory in Makerfield would also trigger a separate mayoral contest in Greater Manchester, likely in early August, a role Starmer has urged him to prioritise.
Polling takes place on Thursday, 18 June, from 07:00 to 22:00 BST, with counting beginning immediately after polls close.
Recent by-elections suggest a declaration in the early hours. Gorton and Denton, held on 26 February, declared at 04:30 the following morning, while Runcorn and Helsby, held on 1 May, declared at 03:00 the next day. Based on that pattern, Makerfield is likely to declare between 03:00 and 05:00 BST on Friday.