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Livesquawk - LS Focus On The Week Ahead
LS Focus On The Week Ahead

All times GMT

 

 

 

17 September 2021 | 18:00 GMT

 

 

 

Monday 20 September

 

Public Holidays in Japan, China, South Korea

 

Canada Election (polling station closing times vary across regions 23:00-03:00)

If either the incumbent Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau or the main opposition, the Conservative Party headed by Erin O’Toole win power, analysts view this as positive for the economy. Avery Shenfeld of CIBC said, “Neither of the two leading parties is pledging a big early dose of fiscal restraint. But there are differences in tax and regulatory proposals that markets will assess in terms of equity valuations.” Consensus: Liberals to secure a marginal win

 

 

Tuesday 21 September

 

RBA Minutes (01:30)

BofA analysts said, “The Board will provide more details on the discussion around the tapering decision and the outlook for policy under increased uncertainty due to the Delta outbreak. We will also watch for more details on the yield curve control target.”

 

Riksbank Rate Decision (07:30)

Economists at Danske Bank do not expect major changes but caution there may be some interesting details to look out for. “With regards to the policy rate path, we have previously argued that the November meeting is a more likely date for the Riksbank to put in a hiking bias at the end of the repo rate path. Following the August inflation data, the probability for this happening already in September has increased, but we stick to our call for this to happen at the November meeting.” Consensus: 0.0% (prev 0.0%)

 

 

Wednesday 22 September

 

BoJ Rate Decision (morning)

“We expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to leave its policy-setting unchanged, with its policy balance rate at -0.10% and 10y Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield target at "around" 0.00% +/- 25bp,” HSBC analysts wrote. “This is because (1) inflation is nowhere in sight and (2) the bank's broad-based monetary easing options are limited as the current negative rate regime is non-binding constraints for many commercial banks and limits the pass-through effect of a rate cut.” Consensus: Unchanged (prev -0.10%)

 

EZ Sep Flash Consumer Confidence (14:00)

“The European Commission's preliminary consumer confidence indicator (on Wednesday), which is expected to have moved sideways (at -5.3) having fallen in the previous two months, to leave it still some way above the average since the start of the pandemic (-12.1),” Daiwa Europe said in a note. Consensus: -5.8 (prev -5.3)

 

Fed Rate Decision (18:00)

Analysts have long held the view that decisive action from the FOMC would come at either the November or December meetings. Analysts at BNP Paribas said, “We expect the Fed to keep its options open at its 21– 22 September meeting by restating that tapering this year could be appropriate, while acknowledging recent weakness in hiring.

 

“While we see a risk of more decisive language in favour of a November announcement, in either case we think the Fed will de-emphasise the link between tapering and rates lift-off, which would shift attention to its inflation projections and dot plot.” Consensus: Fed Funds Target rate 0-0.25% (prev 0-0.25%)

 

 

Thursday 23 September

 

EZ, UK, US Flash Sep PMIs (throughout the day)

IHS market said some clarification may come from the flash PMIs, which will offer a first glimpse of economic conditions in September across the world's largest developed economies. “The big theme to watch for from September’s flash PMI will be whether the rise in Covid-19 case numbers due to the spread of the Delta variant is causing a further squeeze on economic growth in countries such as the US, UK, Japan, and Australia, all of which saw the PMI gauges hit hard in August.”

 

Norges Bank Rate Decision (08:00)

In Norway, we expect Norges Bank to raise its policy rate from zero to 0.25% at Thursday’s rate-setting meeting and say that it will “most likely” go up again in December. This would be in line with the signals from the June meeting and the monetary policy report, and with developments since having been more or less as the central bank assumed. Consensus: 0-0.25% (prev 0-0.25%)

 

SNB Rate Decision (07:30)

There is an overwhelming expectation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its policy rate on hold at -0.75%. HSBC said, “That would mean a sight deposit rate unchanged at -0.75%, a level that has prevailed since January 2015. At its previous monetary policy meeting in June, the SNB revised up its inflation forecasts but kept a dovish tone, with SNB chairman Jordan calling for 'the continuation of the current monetary policy'.” Consensus: -0.75% (prev -0.75%)

 

BoE Rate Decision (11:00)

“With only seven weeks separating the Bank's August and September meetings, very little has changed since the MPC last refreshed its forecasts,” Barclays writes. “We see no change to the Bank's policy settings, keeping the Policy Rate (0.1%) on hold while carrying on with the current QE program. We expect the MPC to reaffirm its forward guidance from August that some modest tightening will be needed over the forecast horizon.” Consensus: 0.10% (prev 0.10%)

 

 

Friday 24 September

 

German Sep Ifo Business Climate (08:00)

The majority of analysts expect the headline business climate indicator to fall for a third consecutive month in September. “Uncertainties about the political outlook in Germany ahead of the Federal elections on 26 September as well as fears of an economic slowdown in Asia on the back of the spreading of the COVID-19 delta variant could have again soured the business outlook. We expect the headline index to fall by 0.9pt to 98.5pt, a five–month low,” HSBC wrote in a note. Consensus: 98.9 (prev 99.4)