LS Focus On The Week Ahead
Week Ahead

10 July 2020

 

All Times GMT

 

Monday 13 July

 

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks On Webinar (15.30)

Governor Bailey: Speech as a part of a webinar hosted by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York “Libor: Entering the Endgame” Text to be published 15.30

 

Tuesday 14 July

 

UK May GDP (06.00)

“Following April’s record, lockdown-driven, 20.4pct plunge in output, May should have seen a rebound, albeit one held back by only a modest easing of restrictions,” Oxford Economics said. “Guidance issued by the government on 10 May encouraged businesses not subject to lockdown rules – in particular the manufacturing and construction sectors – to operate, and to actively encourage employees unable to work from home to travel to work.” Consensus: GDP 3M/3M -17.5pct (prev -10.4pct); M/M 5.0pct (prev -20.4pct).

 

German Jul ZEW Economic Sentiment (09.00)

Sentix’s July poll of investors pushed the headline reading for Germany higher for the third consecutive month, but the expectations component faltered, which points to a decline in the ZEW’s forward-looking main indicator, according to analysts. Consensus: 60.0 (prev 63.4).

 

US Jun CPI (12.30)

Analysts say they anticipate both headline and core inflation will rebound after declines from March through May. Consensus: Headline Y/Y 0.6pct (prev 0.1pct).

 

China Jun Trade Data (TBD)

“While recent PMI and employment indicators in advanced economies have beaten market expectations, the gauges for new export orders in mainland China's PMI readings still contracted in recent months,” HSBC said. Consensus: Exports -1.4pct (-3.3pct).

 

Wednesday 15 July

 

UK Jun CPI (06.00)

“We expect to see a more moderate fall in CPI inflation in June. Partly as motor fuel prices registered a very modest fall over the month, which will exert upward pressure on CPI when set against last year’s more pronounced drop,” Investec said. “But also as the recreation and culture category is likely to push up on the headline rate as the erratic drop in 2019 will probably not be repeated.” Consensus: Y/Y 0.5pct (prev 0.5pct).

 

Bank of Canada Rate Decision (14.00)

“With the economy evolving in line with the BoC's more benign forecast, we do not expect any change in monetary policy,” TD Securities said. “The bank has done a credible job in establishing 25bps as the effective lower bound, and there is absolutely no reason for them to deviate from that position. Consensus: Rate Hold.

 

BoJ Rate Decision (late)

Recent reports about M2 money supply and demand for emergency loans should produce a hands-off attitude in Tokyo, Pantheon Macroeconomics said. “Overall, the BoJ will be pleased with the run of money and credit data. We expect the board to keep its main policy settings and the parameters of its Covid-19 measures unchanged.” Consensus: Rate Hold.

 

Thursday 16 July

Australia Jun Jobs Data (01.30)

“The developing situation in Victoria demonstrates that while in recent weeks many have considered the worst of Covid-19 may already be over, there is always the chance the virus can pose a renewed threat that does more damage to lives and livelihoods and the economy more broadly,” said Michele Levine, CEO of Australian market researcher Roy Morgan. Consensus: Employment 112.5k (prev -227.7k); Unemployment Rate 7.4pct (prev 7.1pct).

 

China Q2 GDP (02.00)

“The consensus view of a sharp positive swing in China’s growth (+2.5pct YoY vs. -6.8pct) is optimistic given the lingering impact of the disease on both domestic demand and exports amid the renewed spread in Beijing and surrounding provinces,” ING said. “Our house view is another quarter of contraction by 3.1pct YoY.” Consensus: Q/Q GDP 10.4pct (prev -9.8pct).

 

UK June Claimant Count, May Unemployment Rate (06.00)

“We’re projecting a 4.4pct unemployment rate,” Deutsche Bank said. “But it's the underlying indicators that we think are more important in understanding the true state of the jobs market. Pay attention to the HMRC's real time payroll data - this has shown a drop in payrolls of 600k since the lockdown.” Consensus: Claimant Count 250.0k (prev 528.9k); Jobless Rate 4.1pct (prev 3.9pct).

 

ECB Rate Decision (11.45), Press Conference (12.30)

“It’s now time to turn from action to monitoring – of the economic recovery and financial markets to see what effect [the bank’s] policies are having on the outlook,” Nomura said. “In terms of the need for further action, that will depend on how much of the burden EU fiscal policy can shoulder (See Friday). Consensus: Rate Hold.

 

US Initial Jobless Claims, June Retail Sales (12.30)

First-time filings are expected to exceed 1mln for the 17th straight week, according to analysts. Consensus: 1.25mln (prev 1.31mln).

 

Friday 17 July

 

EU Leaders Begin Two-day Talks On Pandemic Stimulus Package.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is at the helm after her country assumed the EU presidency at the beginning of the month, and she has expressed her wish for a quick approval of the EUR 750bln programme so payouts can begin in January. The so-called Frugal Four member states are against mutualised debt as part of measures to support growth in the economic area.

 

--- LiveSquawk News

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