LS Focus On The Week Ahead
Week Ahead

18 September 2020 / Updated 15.15 GMT

 

All Times GMT

 

Sunday 20 September

 

Italian Regional Elections Begin (through Monday)

Voters in seven regions are headed to the polls, and the outcome could affect the coalition in Rome, but analysts say the likelihood of a government crisis is low.  

 

Monday 21 September

 

PBoC Rate Decision (01.30)

"Economic data has shown further improvement as August activity data attests to, implying little need for easier policy," TD Securities said. Consensus: Rate Hold.  

 

Tuesday 22 September

 

Riksbank Rate Decision (09.30)

“It is becoming increasingly clear that the economic crisis is considerably milder than expected,” Nordea said. “The Riksbank will probably sharply revise up its GDP forecast for this year and maybe also for the next. At the same time, the labour market forecast will be adjusted in a positive direction.” Consensus: Rate Hold.

 

UN General Debate Begins (to 29th)

Most of the world’s leaders are expected deliver their speeches for the UN’s 75th anniversary via videoconference, but US President Donald Trump has expressed an interest to hold his address from the lectern at the organisation’s New York headquarters. With the pandemic and trade issues plaguing the global economy, some hard lines could be drawn in the sand. And for America, it is an election year.

 

EZ Sep Flash Consumer Confidence (14.00)

Some analysts suggest the number could decline this month due to a rise in coronavirus cases in a number of Eurozone countries. Consensus: -14.7 (prev -14.7).

 

Wednesday 23 September

 

RBNZ Rate Decision (02.00)

ANZ said it expects a dovish tone at the monetary policy review, one “reiterating that a lower OCR (official cash rate) and bank ‘funding for lending’ program are next up. In our view the RBNZ is unlikely to change its forward guidance that the OCR will be left unchanged until March.” Consensus: Rate Hold.

 

EZ, UK Flash PMIs (morning)

For the Eurozone, “the key factor dragging August’s reading lower was the re-emergence of Covid and the reintroduction of some restrictions in certain countries,” Investec said. “This backdrop has continued over the month of September, most notably in France where daily infection numbers have surpassed the peak seen in April.” Consensus: EZ Composite 51.7 (prev 51.9); UK Composite 56.5 (prev 59.1).

 

Thursday 24 September

 

SNB Rate Decision (07.30)

“Business surveys indicate that the economy has rebounded over the summer, but inflation has remained mired in negative territory and is set to stay there into next year,” Capital Economics said. “Meanwhile, the modest fall in the franc against the euro since mid-May has allowed the bank to dial back its interventions. However, the 7pct rise against the US dollar over the past four months or so means that the real effective exchange rate has barely budged.” Consensus: Rate Hold.

 

Norges Bank Rate Decision (08.00)

No change to interest rates is expected, Danske Bank said. “Attention will therefore centre on whether the central bank puts out any new signals about rates further ahead.” Consensus: Rate Hold.

 

Ifo Sep Business Climate (08.00)

Germany’s investor sentiment rose unexpectedly to hit a 20-year in September, according to country’s ZEW thinktank, even though analysts caution that recovery will be choppy at best. Now German managers have a chance to weigh in, and more optimism looks likely. Consensus: Headline Business Climate 93.9 (prev 92.6).

 

Friday 25 September

 

US Aug Durable Goods (12.30)

“With the survey gauge of new orders expanding at a faster pace in August, the updated durable goods orders numbers are expected to indicate growth midway through the third quarter,” said IHS Markit Economist Sian Jones. Consensus: 1.0pct (11.4pct).

 

--- LiveSquawk News

Week Ahead Infograph