Data out of Germany is expected to show a rebound in industrial orders in August, reversing July’s decline. Economists anticipate support from positive base effects on the annual read. The pick-up in capacity utilisation in recent months is forecast to feed through into an acceleration in productivity. Survey data points to an expected upturn in demand. Overall sentiment should be bolstered by reports of a large military equipment order, which may also contribute to a stronger reading.
Germany: Industrial production (Aug) 07:00 GMT
HSBC noted that industrial output rose 1.3% m/m in July on the back of surging machinery and equipment production and stronger car output. While output components of corporate sentiment surveys improved further in August, we are sceptical that this will show up in actual production numbers. Truck traffic was lower in August as was car production (according to the German Association of Car Manufacturers). We expect a modest decline by 0.5% m-o-m, which would put the y-o-y rate back into contraction (-0.4% y-o-y).
23:30 – Japan Aug Cash Earnings
Consensus: Y/Y 2.2% (prev 3.1%)
Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia anticipated that the sample-adjusted scheduled full time wages growth likely remained solid because of the tight labour market.“We expect this year’s strong Shunto wage outcome to continue to spread across the economy.But there are concerns President Trump’s tariffs will squeeze corporate profits and therefore limit businesses’ ability to raise wages.”
BofA said it looked for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut the OCR by 50bps to 2.50%. Recent data suggests significantly more spare capacity than the RBNZ expected, and forward-looking indicators do not point to a sharp rebound or medium-term inflationary pressure. We expect the RBNZ will cut by 50bps to shift to an expansionary policy stance.”
06:00 – Sweden Sep CPI/CPIF (Prelim)
Consensus: Y/Y 1.0% (prev 1.1%)/3.2% (prev 3.2%)
Danske Bank noted that the inflation estimate is typically an event of interest, though it may attract less attention following the Riksbank’s final rate cut last week. “Inflation is widely expected to ease after the summer’s elevated levels and fall below target next year. We forecast CPIF excluding energy to decline to 2.69%, CPIF to 3.06%, and headline inflation to 0.87%. Seasonal declines in car rental and foreign travel prices are anticipated, along with a moderate drop in food prices.”
Speakers: ECB's Villeroy, Escriva | Fed's Powell, Barr, Bowman | BoE’s Mann | RBA’s Bullock, Kent
Friday 10 October
07:00 – Norway CPI Sep
Consensus: Y/Y 3.5% (prev 3.5%)
Danske Bank stated that for September, it believes core inflation remained unchanged at 3.1%, which is marginally lower than Norges Bank’s projection of 3.2% in the September Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Seasonal effects in September have diminished in recent years, averaging around 0.2 percentage points since 2018. Somewhat lower price growth in transport services is expected to exert downward pressure, while prices for food, imports, and rent are anticipated to remain largely stable.
Thus, our 3.1% forecast reflects the fact that seasonal adjustments in August were somewhat higher than usual, which we expect to be corrected in September. However, this also implies that the risk to our forecast is tilted to the upside.
12:30 - Canada Sep Labour Report
Consensus: Net Change 5.0k (prev -65.5k)
TD Securities expected employment to rise by 5k in Sept for a muted rebound after two months of heavy layoffs. “Service sector hiring should drive the headline print alongside a mixed performance for goods-producing industries. A 5k print would see the UE rate rise 0.1pp to 7.2%, while wages for permanent workers are forecast to hold steady at 3.6% y/y.”
Speakers: Fed’s Daly | ECB’s Escriva
Key events & data releases
On Saturday, Japan’s ruling LDP elected Sanae Takaichi as its first-ever female leader, paving the way for her to become the country’s first female prime minister.
This Sunday, OPEC+ members agreed to a small increase in production, easing market concerns of a larger move.
The week ahead looks to be defined more by what isn’t being released than what is, as the US government shutdown enters its first full week.
Analysts at HSBC Research said the disruption will likely delay economic data releases from key federal agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (nonfarm payrolls, CPI, PPI), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP, PCE prices), and the Census Bureau (retail sales, international trade, new-home sales).
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are due on Wednesday, following last month’s quarter-point rate cut.
The European Central Bank will also publish the accounts of its September meeting on 9 October.
Commentary
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var assigned_server = 3001;
var distributor_server = 3010;
var publisher_channel = '';
var broadcaster_channel = '';
var remote_ip = '';
var session_info = {};
var logging_interval;
var logging_interval_time = 120000;
var socket_emits = 0;
var session_start_time;
var reconnectionDelayGrowFactor = 1.2;
var reconnection_delay = 1000;
var playing = false;
var connected_to_assigned = false;
var socket_close_timeout;
var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay = 1500;
var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null;
self.onmessage = function (msg) {
switch(msg.data.action) {
case 'Reactivate': reactivate(); break;
case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break;
case 'SessionStaticInfo': session_static_info(msg); break;
case 'SessionInfo': update_session_info(msg.data); break;
case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break;
case 'RestartLogging': postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionStaticInfo' }); break;
case 'JoinPublisherChannel': join_publisher_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break;
case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break;
case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break;
case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break;
}
};
function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear() {
clearTimeout(player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout);
player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null;
}
function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start() {
player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = setTimeout(function() { send_play_disconnect_annoucement(); }, player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay );
}
function send_play_disconnect_annoucement() {
postMessage({action: "PlayDisconnectAnnoucement"});
}
function reactivate() {
playing = false;
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function player_log_response(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'PlayerLogResponse';
data_array.respond_to_socket_final = data.respond_to_socket_final;
data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket;
data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id;
data_array.logs = data.logs;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function request_message_search(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_message_search';
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.search_term = data.search_term;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function request_more_messages(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_more_messages';
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function check_channel_status(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'check_channel_status';
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1 && connected_to_assigned) { socket.send(msg_string); }
else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); }
}
function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
}
function join_publisher_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_publisher_channel';
if (typeof data.api_key !== 'undefined') { data_array.api_key = data.api_key; }
else {
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.subscriber_group = data.subscriber_group;
data_array.display_name = data.display_name;
data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
}
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) {
socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
}
function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
}
function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel;
remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
var msg_string = event.data.toString();
var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
switch(data.type) {
case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break;
}
};
}
function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
}
function server_assignment_response(data) {
assigned_server = data.selected_server;
socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function request_server_assignment() {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment';
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function connect_to_assigned_server() {
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' });
connected_to_assigned = true;
if (playing) {
postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
}
};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
var msg_string = event.data.toString();
var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ }
switch(data.type) {
case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break;
case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
case 'add_report':
case 'add_ref_doc':
case 'calendar_change':
case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
case 'AppStart':
case 'AppStop':
case 'BroadcasterStarted':
case 'BroadcasterStopped':
case 'added_cme_report':
case 'updated_cme_report':
case 'added_cme_commentary':
case 'updated_cme_commentary':
case 'server_assignment_response':
case 'initial_messages':
case 'message_categories':
case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
break;
case 'output':
case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
}
};
socket.onerror = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
console.log(event);
postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
};
socket.onclose = function(event) {
console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason);
socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay);
reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor;
connected_to_assigned = false;
};
}
function close_socket() {
clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout);
socket_close_timeout = null;
socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
}
function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
}
function join_player_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_player_channel';
data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
}
function start_log_response(data) {
session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id;
session_info_interval();
}
function application_refresh_start(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); }
}
function application_refresh_stop(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); }
}
function set_static_session_info(data) {
session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename;
session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
}
function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename;
data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name;
data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent;
data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version;
data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled;
data_array.platform = session_info.platform;
data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
Monday 6 October
Speakers: ECB’s Lagarde, Guindos, Lane, Escriva | Fed’s Schmid | BoE’s Bailey
Tuesday 7 October
06:00 - Germany Aug Industrial Orders
Consensus: M/M 1.4% (prev -2.9%)
Data out of Germany is expected to show a rebound in industrial orders in August, reversing July’s decline. Economists anticipate support from positive base effects on the annual read. The pick-up in capacity utilisation in recent months is forecast to feed through into an acceleration in productivity. Survey data points to an expected upturn in demand. Overall sentiment should be bolstered by reports of a large military equipment order, which may also contribute to a stronger reading.
Germany: Industrial production (Aug) 07:00 GMT
HSBC noted that industrial output rose 1.3% m/m in July on the back of surging machinery and equipment production and stronger car output. While output components of corporate sentiment surveys improved further in August, we are sceptical that this will show up in actual production numbers. Truck traffic was lower in August as was car production (according to the German Association of Car Manufacturers). We expect a modest decline by 0.5% m-o-m, which would put the y-o-y rate back into contraction (-0.4% y-o-y).
23:30 – Japan Aug Cash Earnings
Consensus: Y/Y 2.2% (prev 3.1%)
Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia anticipated that the sample-adjusted scheduled full time wages growth likely remained solid because of the tight labour market. “We expect this year’s strong Shunto wage outcome to continue to spread across the economy. But there are concerns President Trump’s tariffs will squeeze corporate profits and therefore limit businesses’ ability to raise wages.”
Speakers: Fed’s Miran, Bostic, Bowman, Kashkari | ECB’s Lagarde, Nagel
Wednesday 8 October
01:00 - RBNZ Oct Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: 25bps Cut (prev 3.00%)
BofA said it looked for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut the OCR by 50bps to 2.50%. Recent data suggests significantly more spare capacity than the RBNZ expected, and forward-looking indicators do not point to a sharp rebound or medium-term inflationary pressure. We expect the RBNZ will cut by 50bps to shift to an expansionary policy stance.”
06:00 – Sweden Sep CPI/CPIF (Prelim)
Consensus: Y/Y 1.0% (prev 1.1%)/3.2% (prev 3.2%)
Danske Bank noted that the inflation estimate is typically an event of interest, though it may attract less attention following the Riksbank’s final rate cut last week. “Inflation is widely expected to ease after the summer’s elevated levels and fall below target next year. We forecast CPIF excluding energy to decline to 2.69%, CPIF to 3.06%, and headline inflation to 0.87%. Seasonal declines in car rental and foreign travel prices are anticipated, along with a moderate drop in food prices.”
Speakers: ECB's Nagel, Escriva, Elderson, Muller | Fed’s Musalem, Barr, Kashkari | BoE’s Pill
Thursday 9 October
Speakers: ECB's Villeroy, Escriva | Fed's Powell, Barr, Bowman | BoE’s Mann | RBA’s Bullock, Kent
Friday 10 October
07:00 – Norway CPI Sep
Consensus: Y/Y 3.5% (prev 3.5%)
Danske Bank stated that for September, it believes core inflation remained unchanged at 3.1%, which is marginally lower than Norges Bank’s projection of 3.2% in the September Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Seasonal effects in September have diminished in recent years, averaging around 0.2 percentage points since 2018. Somewhat lower price growth in transport services is expected to exert downward pressure, while prices for food, imports, and rent are anticipated to remain largely stable.
Thus, our 3.1% forecast reflects the fact that seasonal adjustments in August were somewhat higher than usual, which we expect to be corrected in September. However, this also implies that the risk to our forecast is tilted to the upside.
12:30 - Canada Sep Labour Report
Consensus: Net Change 5.0k (prev -65.5k)
TD Securities expected employment to rise by 5k in Sept for a muted rebound after two months of heavy layoffs. “Service sector hiring should drive the headline print alongside a mixed performance for goods-producing industries. A 5k print would see the UE rate rise 0.1pp to 7.2%, while wages for permanent workers are forecast to hold steady at 3.6% y/y.”
Speakers: Fed’s Daly | ECB’s Escriva
On Saturday, Japan’s ruling LDP elected Sanae Takaichi as its first-ever female leader, paving the way for her to become the country’s first female prime minister.
This Sunday, OPEC+ members agreed to a small increase in production, easing market concerns of a larger move.
The week ahead looks to be defined more by what isn’t being released than what is, as the US government shutdown enters its first full week.
Analysts at HSBC Research said the disruption will likely delay economic data releases from key federal agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (nonfarm payrolls, CPI, PPI), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP, PCE prices), and the Census Bureau (retail sales, international trade, new-home sales).
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are due on Wednesday, following last month’s quarter-point rate cut.
The European Central Bank will also publish the accounts of its September meeting on 9 October.