FRANKFURT––The views German managers have about their prospects are unlikely to show much variation this month after Washington and Brussels added further details to their trade deal.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Monday from the country’s Ifo economics institute is forecast to tick higher to 88.8 points from last month’s reading of 88.6.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to ease to 90.5 points from 90.7 in July, with August’s current assessment reading estimated at 86.7 versus 86.5 in the previous month.
A two-tenth rise in the one component would normally balance out a two-tenth fall in the other, which could leave the headline reading unchanged this month. Any decline in the overall measure would be the first this year.
HSBC said it expects the two components of the main index to each gain two-tenths, “driven by services”, which would raise the headline value to the market expectation of 88.8 points—this would be the best result since May of last year.
The new abnormal
German companies can now breathe a sigh of relief, but a brief one. Washington and Brussels agreed last month to US import tariffs on 15% on EU goods, half of what President Donald Trump had threatened to implement on 1 August. The two parties then fleshed out the deal on 21 August, specifically listing cars and pharmaceuticals under the general rate, eliminating many of the worries on this side of the Atlantic.
However, 15% is still a lot for US importers to pay, and at least some of the fees are bound to be pushed on to consumers, which could hurt demand for such products, and possibly US growth. The German carmakers’ association VDA warned that the levies will cost them “billions” each year. Furthermore, the EU agreed to eliminate its tariffs on US industrial goods.
This month’s preliminary purchasing manager indices from Germany offered mixed views, according to S&P Global. Its composite reading for Europe’s largest economy improved to a five-month high of 50.9 points from 50.6 in July, pushing it further beyond the 50-point line separating growth territory above from contraction below. The manufacturing component climbed to a better-than-expected 49.9, a 38-month high, but the services reading slipped to 50.1, a two-month low.
German investor confidence dropped for the first time in four months in August, with the ZEW thinktank saying financial market experts were disappointed in the trade deal.
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- Headline business climate projected at 88.8 (prev 88.6)
- Mixed forecast for measures of future, present
- US confirms 15% tariffs on EU cars, drugs
- German PMIs diverge
- Data due Monday at 08:00 GMT / 10:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
22 August 2025 | 16:00 GMT
FRANKFURT––The views German managers have about their prospects are unlikely to show much variation this month after Washington and Brussels added further details to their trade deal.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Monday from the country’s Ifo economics institute is forecast to tick higher to 88.8 points from last month’s reading of 88.6.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to ease to 90.5 points from 90.7 in July, with August’s current assessment reading estimated at 86.7 versus 86.5 in the previous month.
A two-tenth rise in the one component would normally balance out a two-tenth fall in the other, which could leave the headline reading unchanged this month. Any decline in the overall measure would be the first this year.
HSBC said it expects the two components of the main index to each gain two-tenths, “driven by services”, which would raise the headline value to the market expectation of 88.8 points—this would be the best result since May of last year.
The new abnormal
German companies can now breathe a sigh of relief, but a brief one. Washington and Brussels agreed last month to US import tariffs on 15% on EU goods, half of what President Donald Trump had threatened to implement on 1 August. The two parties then fleshed out the deal on 21 August, specifically listing cars and pharmaceuticals under the general rate, eliminating many of the worries on this side of the Atlantic.
However, 15% is still a lot for US importers to pay, and at least some of the fees are bound to be pushed on to consumers, which could hurt demand for such products, and possibly US growth. The German carmakers’ association VDA warned that the levies will cost them “billions” each year. Furthermore, the EU agreed to eliminate its tariffs on US industrial goods.
This month’s preliminary purchasing manager indices from Germany offered mixed views, according to S&P Global. Its composite reading for Europe’s largest economy improved to a five-month high of 50.9 points from 50.6 in July, pushing it further beyond the 50-point line separating growth territory above from contraction below. The manufacturing component climbed to a better-than-expected 49.9, a 38-month high, but the services reading slipped to 50.1, a two-month low.
German investor confidence dropped for the first time in four months in August, with the ZEW thinktank saying financial market experts were disappointed in the trade deal.
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