Over the years, the annual Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium has, in theory, provided Federal Reserve officials with an opportunity (although not always taken) to steer monetary policy dialogue.
The inaugural event was first hosted in 1978 and is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world.
When is it?
The event will run from Thursday through Saturday (22-24 August). At 20:00 EST on Thursday, a full schedule will be released.
Who will attend?
What’s its purpose?
The Kansas Fed’s website says the symposium is meant to “foster open discussion,” and attendees are selected based on each year’s topic with consideration for diversity in region, background, and industry.
What’s on the agenda?
Experts debate the significance of this event for shaping Fed policy, but market participants generally view it as an opportunity for rate-setters to either crystalise current policy or provide a steer to future action.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday at 10:00 EST/ 14:00 GMT at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Citi analysts expected the central bank chief to guide toward a well-expected rate cut at the September FOMC meeting after last week’s 0.165% m/m core CPI became the third consecutive at-or-below 2% annualised reading. “The dovish risk is that Powell goes further and suggests that slowing inflation and rising unemployment may warrant a faster pace of rate reductions.”
Goldman Sachs said Powell was likely to express a bit more confidence in the inflation outlook and to put a bit more emphasis on downside risks in the labour market than in his press conference after the July FOMC meeting, in light of the data released since then. “A speech along these lines would be consistent with our forecast of a string of three consecutive 25bp cuts in September, November, and December,” analysts wrote. “A dovish surprise could be any hint that the level of the funds rate is inappropriately high, while a hawkish surprise could be highlighting instead that broad financial conditions are still quite easy.”
Deutsche Bank posited that there were good arguments for its baseline view of consecutive 25 basis point cuts at each of the next three meetings. “However, there are also compelling points for moving faster. Ultimately, we think data dependence by the Fed could limit the forward guidance Powell provides as it will be difficult to pre-commit to a particular trajectory.”
Central bank watchers noted that Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey and Clare Lombardelliareset to attend. Citi said, “A final agenda has not yet been released, but with the agenda reportedly set to discuss the ‘Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy’, we will be particularly interested in Bailey’s comments regarding the state of overall transmission in the UK. In August, the MPC concluded that the majority of the impact of higher rates had already materialized, we are less sure.”
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- Fed Chair Powell expected to signal September cut
- Policymakers express more confidence in inflation outlook
- Three 25bps cuts priced into rate futures
- Bank chief set to speak Friday, 10:00 EST/14:00 GMT
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
Over the years, the annual Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium has, in theory, provided Federal Reserve officials with an opportunity (although not always taken) to steer monetary policy dialogue.
The inaugural event was first hosted in 1978 and is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world.
The event will run from Thursday through Saturday (22-24 August). At 20:00 EST on Thursday, a full schedule will be released.
The Kansas Fed’s website says the symposium is meant to “foster open discussion,” and attendees are selected based on each year’s topic with consideration for diversity in region, background, and industry.
Experts debate the significance of this event for shaping Fed policy, but market participants generally view it as an opportunity for rate-setters to either crystalise current policy or provide a steer to future action.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday at 10:00 EST/ 14:00 GMT at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Citi analysts expected the central bank chief to guide toward a well-expected rate cut at the September FOMC meeting after last week’s 0.165% m/m core CPI became the third consecutive at-or-below 2% annualised reading. “The dovish risk is that Powell goes further and suggests that slowing inflation and rising unemployment may warrant a faster pace of rate reductions.”
Goldman Sachs said Powell was likely to express a bit more confidence in the inflation outlook and to put a bit more emphasis on downside risks in the labour market than in his press conference after the July FOMC meeting, in light of the data released since then. “A speech along these lines would be consistent with our forecast of a string of three consecutive 25bp cuts in September, November, and December,” analysts wrote. “A dovish surprise could be any hint that the level of the funds rate is inappropriately high, while a hawkish surprise could be highlighting instead that broad financial conditions are still quite easy.”
Deutsche Bank posited that there were good arguments for its baseline view of consecutive 25 basis point cuts at each of the next three meetings. “However, there are also compelling points for moving faster. Ultimately, we think data dependence by the Fed could limit the forward guidance Powell provides as it will be difficult to pre-commit to a particular trajectory.”
Central bank watchers noted that Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey and Clare Lombardelli are set to attend. Citi said, “A final agenda has not yet been released, but with the agenda reportedly set to discuss the ‘Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy’, we will be particularly interested in Bailey’s comments regarding the state of overall transmission in the UK. In August, the MPC concluded that the majority of the impact of higher rates had already materialized, we are less sure.”