Investors Look To December Payrolls For ‘Clean’ Read On US Employment
- Jobs forecast to rise 70,000, unemployment to edge lower - Annual wage growth expected to remain steady - Services lead modest ADP rebound in December hiring - Data scheduled for release at 08:30 ET/13:30 GMT
The first major data point of the new year lands on Friday with the release of the December US jobs report.
The latest analysts’ poll forecasts nonfarm payrolls growth of 70,000, building on November’s 64,000 increase. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down a tenth to 4.5%, while average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y.
Barclays’ Alternative Indicator, published on Monday, said its models inferred “moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls.” The bank expects job growth of around 50,000 in December, following distortions in October and November linked to the federal government shutdown and the deferred resignation programme.
“We think the fluctuations in recent payroll prints were due mostly to government payrolls and that the December print should provide a more accurate view of the underlying labour-market dynamics,” said Marc Giannoni.
On Wednesday, the closely watched ADP private payrolls report showed employment growth of 41,000 in December, reversing November’s revised 29,000 decline. ADP said the rebound was led by education and health services, as well as leisure and hospitality.
ADP chief economist Nela Richardson noted that “small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back.”
The volatility seen in national labour-market data released ahead of Christmas suggests investors are likely to approach January’s figures with caution. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets said markets have long awaited a ‘clean’ payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While data-quality concerns persist, the bank said investors are approaching Friday’s release on the assumption it will offer the clearest assessment of labour-market conditions since the government shutdown.
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- Jobs forecast to rise 70,000, unemployment to edge lower
- Annual wage growth expected to remain steady
- Services lead modest ADP rebound in December hiring
- Data scheduled for release at 08:30 ET/13:30 GMT
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
8 January 2025 | 19:00 GMT
The first major data point of the new year lands on Friday with the release of the December US jobs report.
The latest analysts’ poll forecasts nonfarm payrolls growth of 70,000, building on November’s 64,000 increase. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down a tenth to 4.5%, while average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y.
Barclays’ Alternative Indicator, published on Monday, said its models inferred “moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls.” The bank expects job growth of around 50,000 in December, following distortions in October and November linked to the federal government shutdown and the deferred resignation programme.
“We think the fluctuations in recent payroll prints were due mostly to government payrolls and that the December print should provide a more accurate view of the underlying labour-market dynamics,” said Marc Giannoni.
On Wednesday, the closely watched ADP private payrolls report showed employment growth of 41,000 in December, reversing November’s revised 29,000 decline. ADP said the rebound was led by education and health services, as well as leisure and hospitality.
ADP chief economist Nela Richardson noted that “small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back.”
The volatility seen in national labour-market data released ahead of Christmas suggests investors are likely to approach January’s figures with caution. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets said markets have long awaited a ‘clean’ payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While data-quality concerns persist, the bank said investors are approaching Friday’s release on the assumption it will offer the clearest assessment of labour-market conditions since the government shutdown.