Ifo Business Confidence Slips, Beats Forecasts; German Recession Imminent – Analysts
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- Business climate index eases
- Expectations, current conditions slightly lower
- Ifo predicts Q3 contraction
- Economists forecast economic downturn
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
25 August 2022 | 08:50 GMT
FRANKFURT – German managers have expressed less pessimism than expected about their current and future business prospects, but they were still less hopeful than last month in the face of historically high inflation, rising interest rates, and soaring energy prices.
This month’s poll of company executives conducted by Germany’s Ifo economics institute showed a slight decline in the headline business climate index to 88.5 points versus the upwardly revised July reading of 88.7, but the indicator outpaced the market forecast of 86.8.
The expectations component of the index – a measure for the coming six months – was little changed at 80.3, which matched the preliminary reading for July that was then revised higher to 80.4 on Thursday. The outlook was much better than the market forecast of 79.0.
The current assessment component of the index ticked down to 97.5 from 97.7 last month and was well above the market’s expectation of 96.0.
“The positive interpretation is that the weakening of the Ifo index is slowing down,” wrote Carsten Brzeski, head of macroeconomics at ING, before dropping the other shoe. “The negative interpretation is obviously that no improvement is currently in sight. Expectations remain close to their all-time lows and were only worse in December 2018 and April 2020.”
Thursday’s Ifo results came just two days after S&P Global said its preliminary composite purchasing managers’ index for Germany fell in August as service activity waned. The 47.1 reading was well below the growth-contraction line of 50 points. The manufacturing index showed slight improvement but remained short of the demarcation point at 49.8.
The Ifo report came just hours after Germany surprised the market with news of minimal growth in the second quarter. The country announced early Thursday that GDP expanded 0.1% in the April-June period compared to the previous quarter, a revision from the flat rate reported in late July.
EUR/USD pushed above parity following the GDP announcement before dropping back below 1.00. The currency again ticked past the even line on the Ifo news only to fall back as the session continued.
Ifo said the current situation points to economic contraction. “Uncertainty among the companies remains high, and the German economy as a whole is expected to shrink in the third quarter.”
Not enough good news for tough times
ING's Brzeski acknowledged that the GDP growth news offered some hope but then warned that a “perfect storm” is enveloping the world’s fourth-largest economy.
“The war in Ukraine has probably marked the end of Germany’s very successful economic business model: importing cheap (Russian) energy and input goods, while exporting high-quality products to the world, benefitting from globalisation.”
He then heaped on more pessimism for the months ahead: “Today’s Ifo index adds to the long list of evidence that the German economy is sliding into a winter recession. The question no longer seems to be if it will be a recession. The only question is how severe and how long that recession will be.”
Capital Economics warned investors to brace following the Ifo results: “We think the German economy is heading for a fairly deep recession in the coming quarters.”