Headline US CPI Declines For Seventh Consecutive Month As Services Costs Climb
Economist's View
Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics said, "The January US consumer price index came in stronger than we anticipated, and this coupled with the tight labor market and net easing in financial market conditions may warrant a change to our forecast for the fed funds rate. Our subjective odds of an additional cumulative 50bps in rate hikes by the Fed, putting the terminal rate this cycle at 5.25%, would be broadly consistent with financial market expectations.
"All told, risks are weighted toward inflation being higher in the first half of this year than we anticipated in the February baseline. Still, inflation should moderate more noticeably in the second half of this year as goods disinflation intensifies and services inflation peaks."
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Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics said, "The January US consumer price index came in stronger than we anticipated, and this coupled with the tight labor market and net easing in financial market conditions may warrant a change to our forecast for the fed funds rate. Our subjective odds of an additional cumulative 50bps in rate hikes by the Fed, putting the terminal rate this cycle at 5.25%, would be broadly consistent with financial market expectations.
"All told, risks are weighted toward inflation being higher in the first half of this year than we anticipated in the February baseline. Still, inflation should moderate more noticeably in the second half of this year as goods disinflation intensifies and services inflation peaks."