German ZEW Investors' Mood Seen Darkening Further in May
- Forward-looking measure forecast at -19.5 points (prev -17.4) - Current conditions projected at -78.0 (prev -73.7) - Easing energy prices, equity rally seen as positives - Investors eye possible June ECB hike - Data due Tuesday at 09:00 GMT / 11:00 CET
A further deterioration in German investor sentiment is forecast for May, although other timely gauges point to a more nuanced outlook.
An analysts’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from a survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will soften to -19.5 from -17.4 in April.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is expected to decline to -78.0 from -73.7.
The reading for the Eurozone is set to fall to -20.0, although this would still represent a marginal improvement on last month’s print.
Nomura said investor sentiment, according to the ZEW survey, was likely to be mixed. “The Sentix survey, published on Monday, 4 May, reported a deterioration in both the current conditions and expectations components. However, since then, the US has been in de-escalation mode, and equities have rallied.”
Tentative truce
The US–Iran ceasefire has now been in place for approximately 33 days. However, the truce has come under renewed strain in recent days, with reports of loud explosions and vessels in the region being hit by drones. The UAE said it had intercepted several missiles allegedly fired from within Iran.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz — a critical waterway for global oil and gas transport — has remained effectively blocked by both US and Iranian forces since the latest conflict began at the end of February.
Dated Brent — the benchmark for physical, immediate-delivery crude cargoes — hit roughly USD 144.4/bbl in early April. However, in the week to 11 May, the commodity averaged around USD 104.55/bbl.
Nomura said the recent US de-escalation efforts had been the primary driver behind the rally in equity indices. As of Friday, the Nasdaq Composite — buoyed largely by optimism surrounding AI growth — was around 7.6% higher than at the start of the conflict on 27 February.
“Consequently, we forecast a decline of 6.8pts in the current conditions component to -80.5, but a 7.1pt rise to -10.1 in the expectations component,” the Japanese bank forecast. “Moreover, we believe market participants will pay greater attention to other elements of the survey, such as inflation expectations and sector profitability expectations.”
Energy prices pivotal to rate outlook
Rising energy costs — a key input for the global economy — continue to fuel concerns among economists about the impact on growth and inflation.
On 30 April, Eurostat reported that annual headline inflation in the euro area climbed to 3.0% in April — the highest since September 2023 — matching expectations and accelerating from 2.6% in March. However, the core rate eased by a tenth, as expected, to 2.2%, suggesting limited evidence of second-round inflation effects.
Interest rate markets had already been pricing in a rate hike later this year. That view was reinforced by comments from Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank President, who indicated the central bank had effectively set its course.
“Following the ECB’s April meeting, several ECB speakers repeated the message that a rate hike is likely in June unless the outlook improves markedly soon, although there were also comments stressing that incoming data should guide any policy changes,” noted Michel Martuinewz.
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- Forward-looking measure forecast at -19.5 points (prev -17.4)
- Current conditions projected at -78.0 (prev -73.7)
- Easing energy prices, equity rally seen as positives
- Investors eye possible June ECB hike
- Data due Tuesday at 09:00 GMT / 11:00 CET
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
11 May 2026 | 16:30 GMT
A further deterioration in German investor sentiment is forecast for May, although other timely gauges point to a more nuanced outlook.
An analysts’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from a survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will soften to -19.5 from -17.4 in April.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is expected to decline to -78.0 from -73.7.
The reading for the Eurozone is set to fall to -20.0, although this would still represent a marginal improvement on last month’s print.
Nomura said investor sentiment, according to the ZEW survey, was likely to be mixed. “The Sentix survey, published on Monday, 4 May, reported a deterioration in both the current conditions and expectations components. However, since then, the US has been in de-escalation mode, and equities have rallied.”
The US–Iran ceasefire has now been in place for approximately 33 days. However, the truce has come under renewed strain in recent days, with reports of loud explosions and vessels in the region being hit by drones. The UAE said it had intercepted several missiles allegedly fired from within Iran.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz — a critical waterway for global oil and gas transport — has remained effectively blocked by both US and Iranian forces since the latest conflict began at the end of February.
Dated Brent — the benchmark for physical, immediate-delivery crude cargoes — hit roughly USD 144.4/bbl in early April. However, in the week to 11 May, the commodity averaged around USD 104.55/bbl.
Nomura said the recent US de-escalation efforts had been the primary driver behind the rally in equity indices. As of Friday, the Nasdaq Composite — buoyed largely by optimism surrounding AI growth — was around 7.6% higher than at the start of the conflict on 27 February.
“Consequently, we forecast a decline of 6.8pts in the current conditions component to -80.5, but a 7.1pt rise to -10.1 in the expectations component,” the Japanese bank forecast. “Moreover, we believe market participants will pay greater attention to other elements of the survey, such as inflation expectations and sector profitability expectations.”
Rising energy costs — a key input for the global economy — continue to fuel concerns among economists about the impact on growth and inflation.
On 30 April, Eurostat reported that annual headline inflation in the euro area climbed to 3.0% in April — the highest since September 2023 — matching expectations and accelerating from 2.6% in March. However, the core rate eased by a tenth, as expected, to 2.2%, suggesting limited evidence of second-round inflation effects.
Interest rate markets had already been pricing in a rate hike later this year. That view was reinforced by comments from Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank President, who indicated the central bank had effectively set its course.
“Following the ECB’s April meeting, several ECB speakers repeated the message that a rate hike is likely in June unless the outlook improves markedly soon, although there were also comments stressing that incoming data should guide any policy changes,” noted Michel Martuinewz.