FRANKFURT – The economic outlook for Germany ticked higher this month, according to a poll of financial market experts, who said the current environment has deteriorated significantly.
Germany’s ZEW economic thinktank said Tuesday that its June expectations measure for the coming six months rose to -8.5% to beat the forecast of -13.5 and the -10.7 points result last month, which was the worst showing since December.
The current conditions indicator fell to its lowest mark since January, dropping to -56.5 points versus the -40.2 forecast and the -34.8 reading last month.
The continued negative reading for the view of the next six months “means that experts do not anticipate an improvement in the economic situation during the second half of the year,” ZEW President Achim Wambach said. “Particularly, sectors focused on exports are likely to perform poorly due to a weak global economy. However, the current recession is generally not considered particularly alarming.”
The outlook and current conditions measures for the euro area both declined, the ZEW said.
After EUR/USD rose past 1.08 earlier in the session, the upward trend plateaued following the ZEW report.
Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank Group, called the improvement in the ZEW outlook “a ray of hope. Maybe the worst is behind us.”
But he pointed to the steep decline in the current situation measure as a warning.
Carsten Brzeski, ING’s head of macroeconomics, had a different view on the data. “Slightly better expectations are only the result from even weaker current assessment,” he tweeted. “Another kind of base effect….”
Plenty of bad news to go around
The ZEW report comes on the heels of the Eurozone – like the German economy – falling into recession last quarter with a second straight contraction.
Financial market experts were also likely concerned with further rate hikes from the European Central Bank, which is expected to raise rates a quarter point on Thursday.
The ZEW results followed across-the-board declines in other investor sentiment measures from German pollster Sentix. Its headline investor confidence fell for the second straight month, dropping to its lowest level since November.
Furthermore, the Ifo business confidence index for Germany fell last month after six consecutive increases.
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session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
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- Surprisingly less pessimism about next half year
- Current situation reading worst since January
- Global economic concerns weigh on mood
- Results come days before likely ECB rate hike
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
13 June 2023 | 10:50 GMT
FRANKFURT – The economic outlook for Germany ticked higher this month, according to a poll of financial market experts, who said the current environment has deteriorated significantly.
Germany’s ZEW economic thinktank said Tuesday that its June expectations measure for the coming six months rose to -8.5% to beat the forecast of -13.5 and the -10.7 points result last month, which was the worst showing since December.
The current conditions indicator fell to its lowest mark since January, dropping to -56.5 points versus the -40.2 forecast and the -34.8 reading last month.
The continued negative reading for the view of the next six months “means that experts do not anticipate an improvement in the economic situation during the second half of the year,” ZEW President Achim Wambach said. “Particularly, sectors focused on exports are likely to perform poorly due to a weak global economy. However, the current recession is generally not considered particularly alarming.”
The outlook and current conditions measures for the euro area both declined, the ZEW said.
After EUR/USD rose past 1.08 earlier in the session, the upward trend plateaued following the ZEW report.
Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank Group, called the improvement in the ZEW outlook “a ray of hope. Maybe the worst is behind us.”
But he pointed to the steep decline in the current situation measure as a warning.
Carsten Brzeski, ING’s head of macroeconomics, had a different view on the data. “Slightly better expectations are only the result from even weaker current assessment,” he tweeted. “Another kind of base effect….”
Plenty of bad news to go around
The ZEW report comes on the heels of the Eurozone – like the German economy – falling into recession last quarter with a second straight contraction.
Financial market experts were also likely concerned with further rate hikes from the European Central Bank, which is expected to raise rates a quarter point on Thursday.
The ZEW results followed across-the-board declines in other investor sentiment measures from German pollster Sentix. Its headline investor confidence fell for the second straight month, dropping to its lowest level since November.
Furthermore, the Ifo business confidence index for Germany fell last month after six consecutive increases.