FRANKFURT – The results of the monthly poll of financial market experts conducted by Germany’s ZEW thinktank are expected to show further pessimism as inflation and supply bottlenecks weigh on the minds of investors.
The ZEW’s forward-looking economic sentiment indicator is expected to drop for a fifth straight month with a decline to 24.0 from 26.5 in September, according to economists. The current conditions measure is forecast lower at 29.5 versus 31.9 last month.
Poll respondents have had a lot to consider about Europe’s largest economy: German headline inflation rose to 4.1% in September, the highest in nearly 28 Years; German industrial orders data for August released last week showed a monthly decline of 4%; and the country’s Ifo economic institute cut its forecast for growth this year 0.8 percentage points to 2.5%.
Curbed expectations
Nomura said, “Growth is moderating both in Germany and more broadly in the euro area, as the effects of pent-up demand post-lockdown fade. In our view, the slowdown in growth will likely negatively affect financial analysts’ assessment of the current economic conditions within the ZEW survey, as well as their expectations for future growth in Germany.”
As is generally the case, the ZEW indicators were foreshadowed this month by the Sentix index. It showed a decline overall and in the outlook but improved opinions about the current situation. Sentix said the slight drop in the overall index was muted by the rosier view of the present and “can be seen as the first reaction after the Bundestag elections”. The balloting ended virtually any chance the Left Party could enter the government, a relief for business.
Oxford Economics highlighted some of the main issues dragging on the mood of investors, problems that seem to have no quick fix. "The current sentiment is weighed down by persistent supply shortages limiting production as well as some upside inflation surprises, while expectations are clouded with uncertainty over the winter.”
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- Economic sentiment forecast at 24.0 (prev 26.5)
- Current conditions seen at 29.5 (prev 31.9)
- Sentix headline indicator fell this month
- Supply chain issues, inflation continue to fuel concerns
- Data due Tuesday at 09:00 GMT
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
11 October 2021 | 08:55 GMT
FRANKFURT – The results of the monthly poll of financial market experts conducted by Germany’s ZEW thinktank are expected to show further pessimism as inflation and supply bottlenecks weigh on the minds of investors.
The ZEW’s forward-looking economic sentiment indicator is expected to drop for a fifth straight month with a decline to 24.0 from 26.5 in September, according to economists. The current conditions measure is forecast lower at 29.5 versus 31.9 last month.
Poll respondents have had a lot to consider about Europe’s largest economy: German headline inflation rose to 4.1% in September, the highest in nearly 28 Years; German industrial orders data for August released last week showed a monthly decline of 4%; and the country’s Ifo economic institute cut its forecast for growth this year 0.8 percentage points to 2.5%.
Curbed expectations
Nomura said, “Growth is moderating both in Germany and more broadly in the euro area, as the effects of pent-up demand post-lockdown fade. In our view, the slowdown in growth will likely negatively affect financial analysts’ assessment of the current economic conditions within the ZEW survey, as well as their expectations for future growth in Germany.”
As is generally the case, the ZEW indicators were foreshadowed this month by the Sentix index. It showed a decline overall and in the outlook but improved opinions about the current situation. Sentix said the slight drop in the overall index was muted by the rosier view of the present and “can be seen as the first reaction after the Bundestag elections”. The balloting ended virtually any chance the Left Party could enter the government, a relief for business.
Oxford Economics highlighted some of the main issues dragging on the mood of investors, problems that seem to have no quick fix. "The current sentiment is weighed down by persistent supply shortages limiting production as well as some upside inflation surprises, while expectations are clouded with uncertainty over the winter.”