FRANKFURT – The upward trajectory of a leading German indicator of investor confidence was expected to begin anew following last month’s sharp fall on concerns about the global banking sector.
An economists’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from this month’s survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will increase to 15.1 points from the 13.0 reported in March, a mark well below the 28.1 reported in February. The institute’s current conditions indicator is forecast to improve to -40.0 from -46.6.
Last month, investor sentiment was sucked down the drain with the share prices of major banks following the failure of two regional US lenders and the forced merger of Switzerland’s UBS and its troubled counterpart Credit Suisse.
In early trading Monday, Germany’s Dax 40 index of local blue chip stocks was up more than 7.5% on the month, clearly good news for investors and those responding to this month’s ZEW survey.
And German managers were gushing with confidence late last month, with the headline business climate index for Germany compiled by the country’s Ifo economics institute hitting its highest mark in 13 months.
'Power struggle' ends, stoking concerns
Last week, German pollster Sentix said its measures of investor sentiment showed improvement, with its expectations component ticking higher and the current situation component improving to its best mark since June of last year. However, both readings were still in negative territory, according to Sentix. “The persistently negative economic expectations of investors are perhaps also a sign that the question of energy security has probably not been answered sustainably and positively.”
Germany shut down its three remaining nuclear power plants Saturday as scheduled even though the end of Russian natural gas shipments due to the war in Ukraine has forced the country to hastily cobble together supply and distribution systems for LNG.
Oxford Economics said it expects the ZEW report to be in line with the improvement in Sentix polling numbers versus the March results. “The Eurozone's financial sector has stabilised since then and equity markets have calmed down. Financial conditions also eased slightly, although they remain notably tighter than before the start of the turmoil.”
Nomura also said the ZEW survey for April was expected to improve in a manner similar to the Sentix survey, but it noted that it sees “the expectations component for the German ZEW survey rising just 1 point to 14.”
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- Expectations component forecast at 15.1 (prev 13.0)
- Current situation expected at -40.0 (prev -46.5)
- German blue chips stocks show strength
- Banking sector fears abate
- Date due Tuesday 18 March at 09:00 GMT/11:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
17 April 2023 | 08:10 GMT
FRANKFURT – The upward trajectory of a leading German indicator of investor confidence was expected to begin anew following last month’s sharp fall on concerns about the global banking sector.
An economists’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from this month’s survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will increase to 15.1 points from the 13.0 reported in March, a mark well below the 28.1 reported in February. The institute’s current conditions indicator is forecast to improve to -40.0 from -46.6.
Last month, investor sentiment was sucked down the drain with the share prices of major banks following the failure of two regional US lenders and the forced merger of Switzerland’s UBS and its troubled counterpart Credit Suisse.
In early trading Monday, Germany’s Dax 40 index of local blue chip stocks was up more than 7.5% on the month, clearly good news for investors and those responding to this month’s ZEW survey.
And German managers were gushing with confidence late last month, with the headline business climate index for Germany compiled by the country’s Ifo economics institute hitting its highest mark in 13 months.
'Power struggle' ends, stoking concerns
Last week, German pollster Sentix said its measures of investor sentiment showed improvement, with its expectations component ticking higher and the current situation component improving to its best mark since June of last year. However, both readings were still in negative territory, according to Sentix. “The persistently negative economic expectations of investors are perhaps also a sign that the question of energy security has probably not been answered sustainably and positively.”
Germany shut down its three remaining nuclear power plants Saturday as scheduled even though the end of Russian natural gas shipments due to the war in Ukraine has forced the country to hastily cobble together supply and distribution systems for LNG.
Oxford Economics said it expects the ZEW report to be in line with the improvement in Sentix polling numbers versus the March results. “The Eurozone's financial sector has stabilised since then and equity markets have calmed down. Financial conditions also eased slightly, although they remain notably tighter than before the start of the turmoil.”
Nomura also said the ZEW survey for April was expected to improve in a manner similar to the Sentix survey, but it noted that it sees “the expectations component for the German ZEW survey rising just 1 point to 14.”