German Investor Sentiment Gauge Set To Rise As Country Struggles To Shake Off Summer Blues
- ZEW sentiment index expected to rise to 41.1 points in October - Fiscal stimulus, defence spending plans face structural hurdles - Weak industrial and trade data underscore a fragile recovery - PMI uptick hints at stabilisation in manufacturing and services
By Harry Daniels LiveSquawk News @HarryDaniels71
13 October 2025 | 18:00 BST
A leading gauge of German investor confidence is expected to show a moderate improvement, mirroring the “cautiously optimistic” tone of last month’s report.
An analysts’ poll projects the forward-looking economic sentiment index from the latest ZEW survey to rise to 41.1 points in October from 37.3 in September. The current conditions indicator is forecast to increase to -74.2 from -76.4 previously.
Government spending is set to receive a boost in the coming months as Berlin seeks to deliver on its defence investment pledges. However, analysts remain sceptical about how much value the Bundesregierung can extract from its previously announced fiscal stimulus plan.
Deutsche Bank’s Michael Kirker said, “Concerns over unresolved structural problems still weigh on investment appetites for manufacturing and construction.”
Ein armer August
Source: ZEW, HighCharts.com
Recent data painted a bleak picture for late-summer activity. Industrial orders fell 0.8% m/m in August, a smaller drop than July’s 2.7% decline but still only bringing volumes back to early-year levels. ING analysts said much of this year’s earlier momentum was due to front-loaded US exports.
Industrial production fell 4.3% on the month, far worse than the 1.0% decline expected, with seasonal plant closures and fading front-loading effects blamed for the weakness.
Destatis reported exports down 0.5% m/m and 0.7% y/y, while imports fell 1.3% on the month but rose 3.5% y/y. Exports to the US declined for a fifth straight month to their lowest since November 2021.
JP Morgan’s Greg Fuzesi said Thursday’s trade data capped off a poor August for Europe’s biggest economy. “Despite the larger fall in imports, the data still point to a net trade drag on GDP, reflecting the recent pattern in the data. This still has more to do, however, with strength in imports rather than outright weakness in exports,” he noted.
Optimism remains
If Tuesday’s ZEW survey matches expectations, it would mark a return to sentiment levels not seen since July. Stronger readings could lift optimism over the regional outlook and extend the euro’s recent gains.
The latest HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index rose to 52.0 in September from 50.5 in August, a 16-month high. The report attributed the increase to a combination of stronger manufacturing output growth and a renewed expansion in services activity.
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- ZEW sentiment index expected to rise to 41.1 points in October
- Fiscal stimulus, defence spending plans face structural hurdles
- Weak industrial and trade data underscore a fragile recovery
- PMI uptick hints at stabilisation in manufacturing and services
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
13 October 2025 | 18:00 BST
A leading gauge of German investor confidence is expected to show a moderate improvement, mirroring the “cautiously optimistic” tone of last month’s report.
An analysts’ poll projects the forward-looking economic sentiment index from the latest ZEW survey to rise to 41.1 points in October from 37.3 in September. The current conditions indicator is forecast to increase to -74.2 from -76.4 previously.
Government spending is set to receive a boost in the coming months as Berlin seeks to deliver on its defence investment pledges. However, analysts remain sceptical about how much value the Bundesregierung can extract from its previously announced fiscal stimulus plan.
Deutsche Bank’s Michael Kirker said, “Concerns over unresolved structural problems still weigh on investment appetites for manufacturing and construction.”
Recent data painted a bleak picture for late-summer activity. Industrial orders fell 0.8% m/m in August, a smaller drop than July’s 2.7% decline but still only bringing volumes back to early-year levels. ING analysts said much of this year’s earlier momentum was due to front-loaded US exports.
Industrial production fell 4.3% on the month, far worse than the 1.0% decline expected, with seasonal plant closures and fading front-loading effects blamed for the weakness.
Destatis reported exports down 0.5% m/m and 0.7% y/y, while imports fell 1.3% on the month but rose 3.5% y/y. Exports to the US declined for a fifth straight month to their lowest since November 2021.
JP Morgan’s Greg Fuzesi said Thursday’s trade data capped off a poor August for Europe’s biggest economy. “Despite the larger fall in imports, the data still point to a net trade drag on GDP, reflecting the recent pattern in the data. This still has more to do, however, with strength in imports rather than outright weakness in exports,” he noted.
If Tuesday’s ZEW survey matches expectations, it would mark a return to sentiment levels not seen since July. Stronger readings could lift optimism over the regional outlook and extend the euro’s recent gains.
The latest HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index rose to 52.0 in September from 50.5 in August, a 16-month high. The report attributed the increase to a combination of stronger manufacturing output growth and a renewed expansion in services activity.