FRANKFURT –– Managers in Germany are expected to express less optimism about their lot as the Iran war continues to foster economic and logistical uncertainty.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Wednesday from the country’s Ifo economics institute was forecast to drop to 86.3 points from February’s reading 88.6.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to decline to 86.6 points from 90.5, with March’s current assessment reading set to ease to 86.2 versus 86.7 in the previous month.
“The German Ifo confidence index should take a big fall due to the energy price shock from the war on Iran,” said Societe Generale in a note that had the headline reading forecast at 87.5, more than a point higher than the consensus. “Given that manufacturing confidence has gradually been improving on the back of the German fiscal stimulus, we think the Ifo could show some resilience, at least initially before the wider growth impact from higher oil prices starts seeping through.”
Support for this argument came Tuesday, when Germany’s flash manufacturing PMI for this month rose unexpectedly. It improved to 51.7 points, its highest mark in 45 months, with S&P Global noting that local production had improved to cover expected shortages due to the war.
Cup, and expectations, half empty
Nomura said it was less optimistic than the consensus, predicting a drop in the headline reading to 84.4 points, and it could be worse. “We think there are downside risks to this forecast, as the ZEW survey expectations balance fell by a huge 58.8 points (see LiveSquawk report), but the German Sentix survey expectations element fell by less, which moderates our forecast overall”
The war has spiked fuel prices in Germany, fanning fears of higher inflation and economic deceleration. The European Central Bank last week raised its Eurozone forecasts for consumer price growth and cut its growth expectations, in some cases significantly depending on the scenario.
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- Headline forecast at 86.3 (prev 88.6)
- Expectations, view of present seen lower
- Surprise: manufacturing PMI rises again
- Investor morale plunges
- Data due Wednesday at 09:00 GMT / 10:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
24 March 2026 | 16:30 GMT
FRANKFURT –– Managers in Germany are expected to express less optimism about their lot as the Iran war continues to foster economic and logistical uncertainty.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Wednesday from the country’s Ifo economics institute was forecast to drop to 86.3 points from February’s reading 88.6.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to decline to 86.6 points from 90.5, with March’s current assessment reading set to ease to 86.2 versus 86.7 in the previous month.
“The German Ifo confidence index should take a big fall due to the energy price shock
Support for this argument came Tuesday, when Germany’s flash manufacturing PMI for this month rose unexpectedly. It improved to 51.7 points, its highest mark in 45 months, with S&P Global noting that local production had improved to cover expected shortages due to the war.
Cup, and expectations, half empty
Nomura said it was less optimistic than the consensus, predicting a drop in the headline reading to 84.4 points, and it could be worse. “We think there are downside risks to this forecast, as the ZEW survey expectations balance fell by a huge 58.8 points (see LiveSquawk report), but the German Sentix survey expectations element fell by less, which moderates our forecast overall”
The war has spiked fuel prices in Germany, fanning fears of higher inflation and economic deceleration. The European Central Bank last week raised its Eurozone forecasts for consumer price growth and cut its growth expectations, in some cases significantly depending on the scenario.
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