FRANKFURT –– German managers expressed waning confidence in Europe’s largest economy yet again this month as indicators continued to signal trouble now and ahead.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Monday that the results of this month’s survey of local business officials showed the headline reading recording a fourth straight fall. The decline to 86.6 points was better than the forecast of 86.0 versus 87.0 last month, but this was the worst showing since February.
Also coming in at the worst mark since February was the expectations component of the index, a measure for the coming six months. It eased to 86.8 points versus the market forecast for a decline to 85.8 and an upwardly revised 87.0 in July.
The current conditions component slid to 86.5 points, which was in-line with the market forecast and less than the 87.1 last month. This was the lowest result since July 2020, Ifo information showed.
Business confidence in manufacturing fell to -17.6 points, the worst result since June 2020, according to Ifo data.
“Sentiment among companies in Germany is on a downward trend,” Ifo warned. “The German economy is increasingly falling into crisis.”
“The latest batch of sentiment indicators is another illustration of what it means to be in the middle of cyclical headwinds and structural changes,” ING’s Carsten Brzeski noted. “This is not a typical textbook cycle but rather an unprecedented period of de facto stagnation. It doesn't make it any better, but it may be easier to understand.”
Investors continued to sour on the outlook for Germany, with polls from Sentix and the ZEW economic thinktank extending declines with sharp drops this month.
Purchasing managers also sided with pessimists once again. Last week, S&P Global said its preliminary German headline composite index for August fell to a five-month low of 48.5 to remain in contraction territory below the 50 mark separating growth from decline. The manufacturing index eased to 42.1, and the services reading of 51.4 – both were the worst results in five months.
The Eurozone manufacturing PMI for August dropped to an eight-month low, according to S&P Global.
The European Central Bank paused its rate cutting cycle last month after reducing borrowing costs in June, and the Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark rate for a second time some two months ago. So far, the moves have done little to build confidence in Germany. The ECB and the US Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates next month.
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function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
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function join_publisher_channel(data) {
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data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
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socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
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function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
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remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
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function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
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function server_assignment_response(data) {
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socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
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postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
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case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break;
case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
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case 'add_ref_doc':
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case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
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case 'AppStart':
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case 'BroadcasterStarted':
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case 'added_cme_report':
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case 'message_categories':
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case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
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case 'output':
case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
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break;
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socket.onerror = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
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postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
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socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
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function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
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function join_player_channel(data) {
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data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
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playing = true;
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function start_log_response(data) {
session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id;
session_info_interval();
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function application_refresh_start(data) {
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function application_refresh_stop(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); }
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function set_static_session_info(data) {
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session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
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function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
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data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent;
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data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled;
data_array.platform = session_info.platform;
data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- Headline reading, components continue lower
- Falls follows further declines in investor morale, PMIs
- Current conditions, manufacturing lowest since mid-2020
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
26 August 2024 | 08:45 GMT
FRANKFURT –– German managers expressed waning confidence in Europe’s largest economy yet again this month as indicators continued to signal trouble now and ahead.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Monday that the results of this month’s survey of local business officials showed the headline reading recording a fourth straight fall. The decline to 86.6 points was better than the forecast of 86.0 versus 87.0 last month, but this was the worst showing since February.
Also coming in at the worst mark since February was the expectations component of the index, a measure for the coming six months. It eased to 86.8 points versus the market forecast for a decline to 85.8 and an upwardly revised 87.0 in July.
The current conditions component slid to 86.5 points, which was in-line with the market forecast and less than the 87.1 last month. This was the lowest result since July 2020, Ifo information showed.
Business confidence in manufacturing fell to -17.6 points, the worst result since June 2020, according to Ifo data.
“Sentiment among companies in Germany is on a downward trend,” Ifo warned. “The German economy is increasingly falling into crisis.”
“The latest batch of sentiment indicators is another illustration of what it means to be in the middle of cyclical headwinds and structural changes,” ING’s Carsten Brzeski noted. “This is not a typical textbook cycle but rather an unprecedented period of de facto stagnation. It doesn't make it any better, but it may be easier to understand.”
Investors continued to sour on the outlook for Germany, with polls from Sentix and the ZEW economic thinktank extending declines with sharp drops this month.
Purchasing managers also sided with pessimists once again. Last week, S&P Global said its preliminary German headline composite index for August fell to a five-month low of 48.5 to remain in contraction territory below the 50 mark separating growth from decline. The manufacturing index eased to 42.1, and the services reading of 51.4 – both were the worst results in five months.
The Eurozone manufacturing PMI for August dropped to an eight-month low, according to S&P Global.
The European Central Bank paused its rate cutting cycle last month after reducing borrowing costs in June, and the Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark rate for a second time some two months ago. So far, the moves have done little to build confidence in Germany. The ECB and the US Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates next month.
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