FRANKFURT –– Business confidence in Europe’s largest economy has risen to its highest level since last summer on signals that a rebound in activity may be underway.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Monday that its latest survey of domestic companies produced an increase in February’s headline business climate index to 88.6 points – the best result since August – compared to the market estimate of 88.3 and the 87.6 reading from January and December.
An Ifo spokesperson told LiveSquawk News that “de facto all” of this month’s responses arrived at the German pollster before the US Supreme Court’s late Friday decision to strike down most of President Donald Trump’s global tariff regime. The ruling had “no influence on the results,” the spokesperson said.
Ifo reported that its February expectations component for the coming six months rose for the first time in four months, increasing to 90.5 points to beat the forecast of 90.0 and the upwardly revised mark of 89.6 set in January.
The current conditions measure of the index climbed to 86.7 points – the best since July 2024 – to outpace the market estimate of 86.2 and last month’s reading of 85.7.
“The German economy is showing first signs of recovery,” Ifo said.
The institute noted that its business climate indices for manufacturing, services, and construction improved, with the trade sector measure in decline.
Source: Ifo
Opinions vary
But there was reason for caution, according to ING’s Carsten Brzeski. “Germany wouldn’t be Germany these days if there weren’t a catch to the tentative good news. Renewed tariff uncertainty – now carrying a greater risk of escalating into a full‑blown trade war than last year – alongside a stronger euro and the recent winter weather, once again forms a long list of potential downside risks. And we are not even mentioning the risk of policy complacency and reluctance or incapability to decide on more structural reforms.”
After the ruling against his tariffs, Trump announced a blanket 15% import levy on virtually all goods sent to the US, which federal law says he can keep in place for 150 days without congressional approval.
Additionally, German investor confidence eased this month due to “structural concerns”, according to the country’s ZEW economics institute.
EUR/USD slipped following Monday’s report to flirt with the 1.18 mark, with the pair dropping below that level just over an hour after the report.
Purchasing managers at German manufacturers offered the most optimism about their sector this month since June 2022. S&P Global said Friday that its preliminary manufacturing reading for February climbed to 50.7 points, putting it back into growth territory above the 50-point mark for the first time in more than three years. The services reading increased a point to 53.4 versus expectations for no change. The results of the improvements pushed to composite reading a point higher to 53.1, its best in four months.
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- Headline measure highest in six months
- Ruling on Trump tariffs did not affect results – Ifo
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
23 February 2026 | 10:00 GMT
FRANKFURT –– Business confidence in Europe’s largest economy has risen to its highest level since last summer on signals that a rebound in activity may be underway.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Monday that its latest survey of domestic companies produced an increase in February’s headline business climate index to 88.6 points – the best result since August – compared to the market estimate of 88.3 and the 87.6 reading from January and December.
An Ifo spokesperson told LiveSquawk News that “de facto all” of this month’s responses arrived at the German pollster before the US Supreme Court’s late Friday decision to strike down most of President Donald Trump’s global tariff regime. The ruling had “no influence on the results,” the spokesperson said.
Ifo reported that its February expectations component for the coming six months rose for the first time in four months, increasing to 90.5 points to beat the forecast of 90.0 and the upwardly revised mark of 89.6 set in January.
The current conditions measure of the index climbed to 86.7 points – the best since July 2024 – to outpace the market estimate of 86.2 and last month’s reading of 85.7.
“The German economy is showing first signs of
The institute noted that its business climate indices for manufacturing, services, and construction improved, with the trade sector measure in decline.
Opinions vary
But there was reason for caution, according to ING’s Carsten Brzeski. “Germany wouldn’t be Germany these days if there weren’t a catch to the tentative good news. Renewed tariff uncertainty – now carrying a greater risk of escalating into a full‑blown trade war than last year – alongside a stronger euro and the recent winter weather, once again forms a long list of potential downside risks. And we are not even mentioning the risk of policy complacency and reluctance or incapability to decide on more structural reforms.”
After the ruling against his tariffs, Trump announced a blanket 15% import levy on virtually all goods sent to the US, which federal law says he can keep in place for 150 days without congressional approval.
Additionally, German investor confidence eased this month due to “structural concerns”, according to the country’s ZEW economics institute.
EUR/USD slipped following Monday’s report to flirt with the 1.18 mark, with the pair dropping below that level just over an hour after the report.
Purchasing managers at German manufacturers offered the most optimism about their sector this month since June 2022. S&P Global said Friday that its preliminary manufacturing reading for February climbed to 50.7 points, putting it back into growth territory above the 50-point mark for the first time in more than three years. The services reading increased a point to 53.4 versus expectations for no change. The results of the improvements pushed to composite reading a point higher to 53.1, its best in four months.
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