FRANKFURT –– Business confidence in Europe’s largest economy fell for the second time this year as economic concerns returned to the forefront despite a government policy of investments of unprecedented proportions.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Monday that its latest survey of domestic companies produced a decline in the headline business climate index to 88.1 points, which countered market expectations of a slight rise to 85.5 from the 85.4 mark posted last month.
The decrease was the second this year following September’s drop.
This month’s expectations component for the coming six months slid to 90.6 points versus last October’s mark of 91.6, which was also the estimate and the highest result since February 2022, the final survey taken before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The current conditions measure of the index rebounded after two straight declines, climbing to 85.6 points from 85.3 and beating the estimate by a tenth.
German companies “have little faith that a recovery is coming anytime soon,” Ifo said. The thinktank noted that its index for manufacturing fell as expectations “took a significant hit.” The business climate improved for services but worsened for the trades and construction sectors, Ifo added.
Source: Ifo
Poll results follow PMIs lower
Purchasing managers in Germany had voiced surprising pessimism this month. S&P Global said Friday that its preliminary composite reading for November showed an unexpected decline to 52.1 points – a 2-month low – from 53.9 in October. The manufacturing reading shed more than a point to 48.4, a 6-month low and further away from growth territory beyond the 50-point mark. Services dropped nearly two points to a 2-month low of 52.7 versus 54.6 last month.
“Germany’s private sector saw a loss of momentum in November,” S&P Global said. “After coming close to stabilising the month before, employment meanwhile fell at a quicker rate amid a renewed decline in backlogs of work.”
This month’s soured mood comes despite Berlin’s plans to spend up to a trillion euros or more on its military, domestic infrastructure, and climate protection in the coming years.
The policies have boosted economists’ growth estimates for Germany – and the Eurozone – but it seems German managers remain unconvinced that their prospects are improving. “There is little cause for optimism regarding the economic outlook for 2026,” according to Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank. “Although Germany's most important economic indicator has improved so far this year, the absolute level suggests that the German economy will only grow moderately.”
Rory Fennessy from Oxford Economics offered a timeline for the German recovery: “Overall, we don't think GDP growth is in for any kind of material rebound until expansionary fiscal policy kicks into gear later next year. But even then, we think it will run into bottlenecks and the growth impulse will take until 2027 to materialise more significantly.”
German managers must also contend with current borrowing for costs the foreseeable future as analysts say the European Central Bank could keep interest rates as is indefinitely following its most recent decision to leave monetary policy unchanged.
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- Expectations drop despite Berlin’s spending plans
- Decline follows weaker PMIs
- Recovery could take longer than expected
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
25 November 2025 | 09:45 GMT
FRANKFURT –– Business confidence in Europe’s largest economy fell for the second time this year as economic concerns returned to the forefront despite a government policy of investments of unprecedented proportions.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Monday that its latest survey of domestic companies produced a decline in the headline business climate index to 88.1 points, which countered market expectations of a slight rise to 85.5 from the 85.4 mark posted last month.
The decrease was the second this year following September’s drop.
This month’s expectations component for the coming six months slid to 90.6 points versus last October’s mark of 91.6, which was also the estimate and the highest result since February 2022, the final survey taken before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The current conditions measure of the index rebounded after two straight declines, climbing to 85.6 points from 85.3 and beating the estimate by a tenth.
German companies “have little faith that a recovery is coming anytime soon,” Ifo said. The thinktank noted that its index for manufacturing fell as expectations “took a significant hit.” The business climate improved for services but worsened for the trades and construction sectors, Ifo added.
Poll results follow PMIs lower
Purchasing managers in Germany had voiced surprising pessimism this month. S&P Global said Friday that its preliminary composite reading for November showed an unexpected decline to 52.1 points – a 2-month low – from 53.9 in October. The manufacturing reading shed more than a point to 48.4, a 6-month low and further away from growth territory beyond the 50-point mark. Services dropped nearly two points to a 2-month low of 52.7 versus 54.6 last month.
“Germany’s private sector saw a loss of momentum in November,” S&P Global said. “After coming close to stabilising the month before, employment meanwhile fell at a quicker rate amid a renewed decline in backlogs of work.”
This month’s soured mood comes despite Berlin’s plans to spend up to a trillion euros or more on its military, domestic infrastructure, and climate protection in the coming years.
The policies have boosted economists’ growth estimates for Germany – and the Eurozone – but it seems German managers remain unconvinced that their prospects are improving. “There is little cause for optimism regarding the economic outlook for 2026,” according to Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank. “Although Germany's most important economic indicator has improved so far this year, the absolute level suggests that the German economy will only grow moderately.”
Rory Fennessy from Oxford Economics offered a timeline for the German recovery: “Overall, we don't think GDP growth is in for any kind of material rebound until expansionary fiscal policy kicks into gear later next year. But even then, we think it will run into bottlenecks and the growth impulse will take until 2027 to materialise more significantly.”
German managers must also contend with current borrowing for costs the foreseeable future as analysts say the European Central Bank could keep interest rates as is indefinitely following its most recent decision to leave monetary policy unchanged.
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