FRANKFURT –– Managers in Germany are expected to express further pessimism about the business environment as Iran reports that it has taken control of two ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Friday from the country’s Ifo economics institute was forecast to drop to 85.3 points from March’s reading of 86.4, which was the worst since February of last year.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to decline to 85.0 points from 86.0, with April’s current assessment reading set to ease to 86.2 versus 86.7 in the previous month.
Chaos reigns
The fog of war continues to shroud the situation in and around the Persian Gulf. US President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that the ceasefire agreed with Iran has been extended indefinitely past Wednesday’s deadline, but no such confirmation has come from Tehran. In fact, media reports say Iran has fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seizing two.
The impact of the war has already forced economists to cut their growth expectations and raise their inflation forecasts for most countries, and German is no exception. In fact, on Wednesday the German government halved its GDP growth outlook for this year to 0.5% while hiking its inflation estimate to 2.7%.
Analysts at Helaba said they expected another decline in German business confidence following the drop in March, the first month of the war. “Of particular interest are the assessments of the companies' situations, as these provide the first reliable information on the current situation in German companies.”
Released Thursday, Germany’s flash manufacturing PMI for this month declined a touch more than expected, easing to 51.2 points versus the market forecast of 51.4 and last month’s surprisingly strong 52.2, the highest in 45 months. But this month’s preliminary services PMI plummeted to 46.9 points – its worst in more than three years – dropping the measure well into contraction territory below the 50 level. This, in turn, dragged the overall composite reading down to 48.3, a 16-month low.
Additionally, investor confidence in Germany this month slid to its lowest mark since late 2022, according to the country’s ZEW economic thinktank.
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- Fog of war thickens
- Headline forecast at 85.2 (prev 86.4)
- Expectations, view of present called lower
- Manufacturing PMI slips, overall reading plummets
- Investor morale worsens
- Data due Friday at 08:00 GMT / 10:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
23 April 2026 | 08:00 GMT
FRANKFURT –– Managers in Germany are expected to express further pessimism about the business environment as Iran reports that it has taken control of two ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Friday from the country’s Ifo economics institute was forecast to drop to 85.3 points from March’s reading of 86.4, which was the worst since February of last year.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to decline to 85.0 points from 86.0, with April’s current assessment reading set to ease to 86.2 versus 86.7 in the previous month.
Chaos reigns
The fog of war continues to shroud the situation in and around the Persian Gulf. US President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that the ceasefire agreed with Iran has been extended indefinitely past Wednesday’s deadline, but no such confirmation has come from Tehran. In fact, media reports say Iran has fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seizing two.
The impact of the war has already forced economists to cut their growth expectations and raise their inflation forecasts for most countries, and German is no exception. In fact, on Wednesday the German government halved its GDP growth outlook for this year to 0.5% while hiking its inflation estimate to 2.7%.
Analysts at Helaba said they expected another decline in German business confidence following the drop in March, the first month of the war. “Of particular interest are the assessments of the companies' situations, as these provide the first reliable information on the current situation in German companies.”
Released Thursday, Germany’s flash manufacturing PMI for this month declined a touch more than expected, easing to 51.2 points versus the market forecast of 51.4 and last month’s surprisingly strong 52.2, the highest in 45 months. But this month’s preliminary services PMI plummeted to 46.9 points – its worst in more than three years – dropping the measure well into contraction territory below the 50 level. This, in turn, dragged the overall composite reading down to 48.3, a 16-month low.
Additionally, investor confidence in Germany this month slid to its lowest mark since late 2022, according to the country’s ZEW economic thinktank.
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