FRANKFURT –– Managers in Europe’s largest economy are expected to voice a minimal amount of additional optimism about their lot as worries about Germany’s prospects mount.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Monday from the country’s Ifo economics institute is forecast to edge higher to 88.5 points from last month’s reading of 88.4.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to climb to 91.7 points from 91.6, with November’s current assessment reading set to improve to 85.5 versus 85.3 in the previous month.
Purchasing managers in Germany were surprisingly pessimistic this month. S&P Global said Friday that its preliminary composite reading for November showed an unexpected decline to 52.1 points – a 2-month low – from 53.9 in October. The manufacturing reading slid more than a point to 48.4, a 6-month low and further away from growth territory beyond the 50-point mark. Services dropped nearly two points to a 2-month low of 52.7 versus 54.6 last month.
“Germany’s private sector saw a loss of momentum in November,” S&P Global said. “After coming close to stabilising the month before, employment meanwhile fell at a quicker rate amid a renewed decline in backlogs of work.”
Christmas surprises unlikely
With European Central Bank interest rates on hold earlier this month and likely headed for more of the same next month – and possibly all of next year, according to analysts – German managers are faced with borrowing costs at current levels for the foreseeable future, not a source of optimism by any means.
Furthermore, the furore around Berlin’s plans to spend up to EUR 1 tn or more on the military and infrastructure has waned as government factions vie for position and all that money. The delays in getting all that cash to the masses has stoked growth concerns. Earlier this month, investor confidence backtracked as companies and the populace becomes more antsy about ongoing economic weakness.
After flat growth last quarter, the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, said this week that it expects moderate growth in the final three months of the year.
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- PMIs falter
- Growth worries dog sentiment
- Data due Monday at 09:00 GMT / 10:00 CET
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Monday from the country’s Ifo economics institute is forecast to edge higher to 88.5 points from last month’s reading of 88.4.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to climb to 91.7 points from 91.6, with November’s current assessment reading set to improve to 85.5 versus 85.3 in the previous month.
Purchasing managers in Germany were surprisingly pessimistic this month. S&P Global said Friday that its preliminary composite reading for November showed an unexpected decline to 52.1 points – a 2-month low – from 53.9 in October. The manufacturing reading slid more than a point to 48.4, a 6-month low and further away from growth territory beyond the 50-point mark. Services dropped nearly two points to a 2-month low of 52.7 versus 54.6 last month.
“Germany’s private sector saw a loss of momentum in November,” S&P Global said. “After coming close to stabilising the month before, employment meanwhile fell at a quicker rate amid a renewed decline in backlogs of work.”
Christmas surprises unlikely
With European Central Bank interest rates on hold earlier this month and likely headed for more of the same next month – and possibly all of next year, according to analysts – German managers are faced with borrowing costs at current levels for the foreseeable future, not a source of optimism by any means.
Furthermore, the furore around Berlin’s plans to spend up to EUR 1 tn or more on the military and infrastructure has waned as government factions vie for position and all that money. The delays in getting all that cash to the masses has stoked growth concerns. Earlier this month, investor confidence backtracked as companies and the populace becomes more antsy about ongoing economic weakness.
After flat growth last quarter, the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, said this week that it expects moderate growth in the final three months of the year.
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