FRANKFURT –– For the third straight month, the duration of the Iran war, managers in Germany are expected to express additional pessimism about the overall business environment, but their mood about the next six months is poised to improve.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Friday from the country’s Ifo economics institute was forecast to slip to 84.2 points from April’s reading of 84.4, the lowest mark in nearly six years.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to rise to 83.5 points from 83.3, but May’s current assessment reading will likely drag the overall number lower as it is set to ease to 85.1 versus 85.4 in the previous month.
“We see no reason why the surveyed companies should now assess their business expectations for the next six months more favourably than they did just a month ago,” Helaba said in a note. “We therefore anticipate that the Ifo Business Climate Index will deteriorate for the third consecutive month. This comes despite the fact that the index is currently already at its lowest level since May 2020 – when the German economy was in the midst of the first coronavirus lockdown.”
Concerns rise, and fall
Purchasing managers offered minimal optimism for Europe’s largest economy on Thursday. While the composite PMI did improve – an unchanged reading was expected – the 48.6 result kept the mark in contraction territory below the 50-point line.
Support for the overall number came from the services component of the index, which rose from a multi-year low to 47.8, so still showing shrinkage.
The manufacturing side slipped to a four-month low of 49.9, just south of growth. But industrial production in Germany, as in other countries, had been buoyed by the war as companies hedged their bets by stockpiling ahead on concerns of major price surges and supply chain issues due to the war.
And economists last week misread the mood of German investors – the ZEW said its expectations indicator for the next six months improved in May. Analysts had forecast a decline.
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- Headline expected forecast at 84.2 (prev 84.4)
- Outlook set to edge higher
- Manufacturing PMI slips, overall reading rises
- Investor outlook improves
- Data due Friday at 08:00 GMT / 10:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
21 May 2026 | 08:00 GMT
FRANKFURT –– For the third straight month, the duration of the Iran war, managers in Germany are expected to express additional pessimism about the overall business environment, but their mood about the next six months is poised to improve.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Friday from the country’s Ifo economics institute was forecast to slip to 84.2 points from April’s reading of 84.4, the lowest mark in nearly six years.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to rise to 83.5 points from 83.3, but May’s current assessment reading will likely drag the overall number lower as it is set to ease to 85.1 versus 85.4 in the previous month.
“We see no reason why the surveyed companies should now assess their business expectations for the next six months more favourably than they did just a month ago,” Helaba said in a note. “We therefore anticipate that the Ifo Business Climate Index will deteriorate for the third consecutive month. This comes despite the fact that the index is currently already at its lowest level since May 2020 – when the German economy was in the midst of the first coronavirus lockdown.”
Concerns rise, and fall
Purchasing managers offered minimal optimism for Europe’s largest economy on Thursday. While the composite PMI did improve – an unchanged reading was expected – the 48.6 result kept the mark in contraction territory below the 50-point line.
Support for the overall number came from the services component of the index, which rose from a multi-year low to 47.8, so still showing shrinkage.
The manufacturing side slipped to a four-month low of 49.9, just south of growth. But industrial production in Germany, as in other countries, had been buoyed by the war as companies hedged their bets by stockpiling ahead on concerns of major price surges and supply chain issues due to the war.
And economists last week misread the mood of German investors – the ZEW said its expectations indicator for the next six months improved in May. Analysts had forecast a decline.
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